Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC Predictions
FA Cup · England
Stockton Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Guiseley AFC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Guiseley AFC Win
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC: Match Preview
Stockton Town come into this FA Cup tie off a mixed run, having managed just one win in their last five matches (form string: LWLDL) and conceding nearly two goals per game. Guiseley AFC, meanwhile, have found a strong attacking rhythm, winning three of their last five and scoring at least twice in four of those games. With both sides still settling into the new campaign, neither has established a clear season-long trend, but Guiseley’s recent results suggest a side with more momentum and cutting edge.
The statistical matchup is defined by Guiseley’s offensive output against Stockton’s defensive vulnerabilities. Guiseley average 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over the last five, while Stockton have struggled at both ends, scoring just 0.8 and conceding 1.8 per match. Notably, Guiseley’s matches have produced goals early, with eight first-half goals in five games, and BTTS has landed in four of those. Stockton’s only clean sheet came at home, but otherwise their defensive record is patchy, and their attack has failed to score in two of five.
Given these rates, the model expects a match that leans towards over 2.5 goals, with Guiseley’s attack likely to dictate the tempo. While Stockton’s home advantage and H2H record at home offer some resistance, the away side’s recent scoring form makes them slight favourites. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the distribution of results remains broad given early-season volatility.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC that most previews miss.
- 1Guiseley’s last five matches have averaged 3.6 total goals per game.
- 2Stockton Town have kept just one clean sheet in their last five and have failed to score twice.
- 3Eight of Guiseley’s last eleven goals have come in the first half, indicating a strong early threat.
Who do you think wins: Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Guiseley AFC Win
Guiseley AFC have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game across their last five, with no failed to score, while Stockton Town have conceded 1.8 per game and managed just one win in that span.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Four of Guiseley’s last five have seen both teams score and their matches average 3.6 total goals, while Stockton Town’s defensive record is poor with 1.8 conceded per game recently.
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BTTS: Yes
Guiseley have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Stockton Town have only failed to score twice in that span; both sides’ recent matches trend towards goals at both ends.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC Prediction
Guiseley AFC arrive with a sharper attacking edge, averaging over two goals per game in recent outings, while Stockton Town’s defensive frailties leave them exposed. The underlying rates point to a match with above-average goal expectancy, driven by Guiseley’s consistent scoring and Stockton’s tendency to concede. Expect the away side’s offensive output to tilt the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Four of Guiseley’s last five matches saw both teams score.
Attack
- →Guiseley AFC average 2.2 goals scored per game over last five matches.
Defence
- →Stockton Town have conceded 1.8 goals per game and won just once in their last five.
How Stockton Town and Guiseley AFC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Stockton Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Guiseley AFClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stockton Town have struggled for momentum, winning just once in their last five and conceding 1.8 goals per game. Guiseley AFC, by contrast, have won three of their last five and have not failed to score in that stretch, signalling a more potent attack and better recent results.
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC
The head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with Stockton Town holding three wins to Guiseley’s two over the last seven meetings. However, Guiseley’s recent 3-0 win is the most decisive result, while previous matches at Stockton have tended to be tighter and lower scoring.
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
3
Stockton Town wins
2
Draws
2
Guiseley AFC wins
Things to Watch: Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC
- ⚠️No season-long data or home/away splits due to early stage in campaign.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available to confirm value edges.
- ⚠️Recent H2H includes a 3-0 Guiseley win, but prior meetings were much tighter.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Stockton Town 1–2 Guiseley AFCThe model projects a 2-1 win for Guiseley AFC, anchored by their recent average of 2.2 goals scored per match and Stockton’s defensive record of 1.8 conceded. The biggest risk is Stockton’s home record in this H2H, where they have often kept things tight, but current attacking trends favour the visitors.
Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC: Common Questions
Who will win Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?
Guiseley AFC are favoured with a 43% win probability, compared to 28% for Stockton Town and 29% for the draw. Guiseley’s recent scoring form gives them the edge, but the fixture has been competitive in previous meetings.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?
The model gives a 57% probability to over 2.5 goals, based on Guiseley’s 3.6 goals per game average and Stockton’s defensive struggles. This points to a higher-than-average goal environment.
Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?
There is a 58% probability of both teams scoring, as Guiseley have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches and Stockton have only failed to score twice in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.