Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Predictions
Super League · China
Tianjin Teda
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Yunnan Yukun
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
8.6/10Tianjin Teda Stun Yunnan Yukun with Dramatic Late Comeback in Five-Goal Thriller
Tianjin Teda produced a sensational late turnaround to defeat Yunnan Yukun 3-2 at the Olympic Sports Center Stadium, capping a pulsating contest with two stoppage-time goals. The hosts looked destined for defeat after Yunnan Yukun led 2-1 heading into the final minutes, but Tianjin's relentless pressure bore fruit in the dying moments, sending the home crowd into raptures. Both sides matched each other for shots on target (5 apiece), but Tianjin's attacking intent was clear with 20 total shots and a slight edge in possession (51%). Yunnan Yukun, for their part, were efficient and dangerous on the break, twice taking the lead before being undone by Tianjin's late surge. The match was a showcase of attacking football, momentum swings, and high drama, ultimately decided by Tianjin's refusal to surrender.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
32' — Goal
O. Maritu opens the scoring for Yunnan Yukun, finishing off a swift counterattack.
61' — Goal
Yunnan Yukun double their lead, capitalizing on a defensive error from Tianjin.
84' — Goal
Tianjin Teda pull one back, igniting hopes of a comeback.
90' — Goal
Tianjin Teda equalize dramatically in stoppage time.
90' — Goal
Tianjin Teda complete the comeback with a stunning late winner.
Home/Yellow' — Yellow Card
Tianjin Teda pick up a yellow card as tempers flare late on.
Away/Yellow' — Yellow Card
Yunnan Yukun receive two bookings in a physical encounter.
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda started brightly, controlling possession and creating chances, but found themselves trailing twice as Yunnan Yukun capitalized on defensive lapses. Despite being frustrated for much of the match, Tianjin's persistence paid off in the final minutes, as they turned a 1-2 deficit into a 3-2 victory with goals in the 84th and stoppage time. Their attacking players showed great resolve, and the midfield's energy was key to sustaining late pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun executed their game plan well for much of the match, absorbing pressure and striking with precision to take the lead twice. Their midfield duo of Caio Vinícius and Xu Xin helped control transitions, and their defense held firm under sustained pressure until the final moments. Ultimately, lapses in concentration in the closing stages saw them surrender a hard-earned advantage, leaving them to rue missed opportunities to close out the game.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1, leading to a midfield battle characterized by high pressing and quick transitions. Tianjin Teda sought to dominate possession and overload the attacking third, with Bruno Xadas and Ba Dun providing creativity behind the striker. Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, were disciplined defensively and looked to exploit spaces on the counter, with O. Maritu spearheading their attacks. As the match wore on, Tianjin pushed their full-backs higher and committed more men forward, especially after falling behind. The introduction of fresh legs via substitutions (details not specified) appeared to inject energy into their late push. Yunnan Yukun's defensive line dropped deeper in the final stages, inviting pressure that ultimately proved costly.
Turning Point
Tianjin Teda's equalizer in stoppage time, which shattered Yunnan Yukun's resistance and set the stage for the dramatic winner moments later.
Man of the Match
Bruno Xadas
Drove Tianjin's comeback with relentless midfield energy and creativity, instrumental in both late goals.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun: Match Preview
Tianjin Teda approach this fixture with momentum from back-to-back wins, including a 2-0 away victory over Shanghai Shenhua, but their overall season remains underwhelming: just two wins from nine at home and a negative goal difference in front of their own fans. Yunnan Yukun, sitting fourth, have been among the league's most entertaining sides, with 36 scored and 35 conceded in 19 matches, but their away record (three wins in ten, 18 for and 20 against) reveals persistent defensive frailty. Both teams are clear of the relegation zone, but Yunnan Yukun are in the thick of the race for continental places, adding motivation to maintain their attacking intent.
The tactical contrast is sharp: Tianjin Teda's last five matches have seen them concede just twice, with three clean sheets, while Yunnan Yukun have not managed a single shutout in the same span and have been involved in five straight BTTS games. Yunnan Yukun's attack is the most productive in the league on current form (2.6 goals per game last five), but their defence is equally porous (2.6 conceded), and their matches average over 20 shots combined. Corners are likely to be plentiful—both sides average over five per game recently—while discipline should be moderate, with both teams below two cards per match on average.
The model expects Yunnan Yukun's offensive firepower to tell, especially given their ability to create high shot volumes away from home. However, Tianjin Teda's improved defensive numbers and the low home win rate inject uncertainty. With both teams' rates pointing clearly to goals, a 2-1 away win is the likeliest scenario, but the distribution is wide, and a high-scoring draw is a real possibility if Tianjin Teda can capitalise on Yunnan Yukun's defensive lapses.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun that most previews miss.
- 1Yunnan Yukun's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 16 of 19 league games (84%), highest in the division.
- 2Tianjin Teda have kept three clean sheets in their last five but have won only two of nine home matches all season.
- 3Both teams have scored in every one of Yunnan Yukun's last five league fixtures, with an average of 5.2 total goals per game in that span.
Who do you think wins: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Yunnan Yukun have seen 84% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams average above 1.2 goals conceded per game. The model gives a 67% probability to the over, well above typical market baselines.
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BTTS: Yes
Yunnan Yukun have both scored and conceded in all of their last five, and Tianjin Teda have scored in four of their last five. The BTTS probability is 64% by the model.
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Match Result: Yunnan Yukun Win
Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.89 goals/game) and high shot output (16.2 per match last five) give them the edge against a Tianjin Teda side with just two home wins in nine and a negative home goal difference.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction
The statistical profile points to an open, high-scoring contest. Yunnan Yukun's matches average 3.7 goals per game, driven by a potent but leaky attack, while Tianjin Teda's recent defensive improvement is offset by a home record that offers little advantage. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win, but the distribution is broad, with draws and high-scoring results both plausible given the underlying rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Tianjin Teda have averaged just 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game, but their last five show a 0.4 goals conceded average.
- →Yunnan Yukun have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and have not failed to score in any of those matches.
Match Context
- →Yunnan Yukun's season over 2.5 goals rate is 84%, highest in the league.
🚩 Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Tianjin Teda and 6.6 for Yunnan Yukun, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tianjin Tedalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Yunnan Yukunlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tianjin Teda have stabilised after a poor stretch, winning three of their last five and conceding just twice in that run. In contrast, Yunnan Yukun's recent form is volatile but consistently high scoring, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded in their last five league matches. The momentum favours Tianjin Teda defensively, but Yunnan Yukun's attack remains the most prolific in the fixture.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 84.21% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun have won two of the last four meetings, including a 1-0 away win in Tianjin last season. However, Tianjin Teda took the most recent encounter 3-0 away. Three of the last four have ended with a clean sheet for the winner, suggesting a tendency for one side to dominate on the day.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
Tianjin Teda wins
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun wins
Things to Watch: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent defensive uptick for Tianjin Teda (0.4 goals against last five) is a small sample and may regress.
- ⚠️Yunnan Yukun's high-scoring profile is partly driven by volatility; match could be lower scoring if Tianjin Teda's defensive form holds.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tianjin Teda 1–2 Yunnan YukunA 2-1 win for Yunnan Yukun is the model's baseline, anchored by their league-leading over 2.5 goals rate (84%) and a sustained attacking output even away from home. The main risk is Tianjin Teda's recent defensive improvement, which could suppress the goal count and tilt the match towards a draw, especially if Yunnan Yukun struggle to convert their chances.
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun: Common Questions
Who will win Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 42% chance of victory, with Tianjin Teda at 28% and the draw at 30%. Yunnan Yukun's superior attacking numbers and higher league position tip the balance, but the probabilities reflect a wide-open contest.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Both teams to score is rated at 64% probability. Yunnan Yukun have seen BTTS land in each of their last five matches, and Tianjin Teda have scored in four of their last five.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?
There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Yunnan Yukun's 84% season rate for this market and both teams' recent high-scoring trends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.