Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Predictions
National League - South · England
Tonbridge Angels
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chesham United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United: Match Preview
Tonbridge Angels come into this match sitting 10th in the National League South, with a notable split between their strong away form (3W 2D 0L) and their struggles at home (1W 0D 4L). Chesham United, 19th in the table, have lost four of their last six away but remain dangerous going forward, scoring 11 times in those away fixtures. Both teams have shown inconsistency in recent weeks, with Tonbridge losing three of their last five and Chesham alternating between heavy wins and defeats.
The statistical shape of this fixture points to an open, attacking contest. Tonbridge average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, while Chesham's matches are even more volatile, with 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded per match. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and Chesham have seen 80% of their league games go over 2.5 goals. Set piece and discipline data are lacking, but the high average goals and both teams' recent BTTS rates (Tonbridge 3/5, Chesham 4/5) suggest defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Given these rates, the model projects a high likelihood of both teams scoring and a strong chance of the match going over 2.5 goals. Tonbridge's marginally better defensive record and home advantage tip the balance slightly in their favour, but Chesham's recent attacking output means a draw or high-scoring away result cannot be discounted. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 home win, with both teams finding the net.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United that most previews miss.
- 1Chesham United away matches average 3.67 total goals per game (11 scored, 11 conceded in 6).
- 2Tonbridge Angels have scored in four of their last five home games but kept zero clean sheets in that span.
- 3Three of the last four H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals, but both teams' current over 2.5 rates exceed 60%.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Prediction
Tonbridge Angels enter this fixture with a clear home/away split: their away record is among the league's best (3W 2D 0L), but at home they've managed just one win in five. Chesham United, meanwhile, have lost four of six away but have found the net 11 times on their travels, matching their goals conceded. Both teams' recent matches have been high scoring, with Chesham averaging 3.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game over their last five, and Tonbridge's season-long attack output at 1.9 goals per match. Statistically, this is a fixture set up for goals. Both sides have seen at least 60% of their matches go over 2.5 goals (Tonbridge 60%, Chesham 80%), and both have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Tonbridge's home defence has been leaky (8 conceded in 5), while Chesham's away defence is similarly porous (11 conceded in 6). The head-to-head history is tighter, with three of four previous meetings finishing under 2.5 goals, but current attacking trends suggest a different pattern. The model expects an open contest with both sides likely to score, but Tonbridge's overall defensive record (1.1 conceded per game, 30% clean sheets) and slightly higher league position give them the edge. Chesham's recent attacking surges have come with defensive lapses, and the most probable outcome is a narrow home win in a match with multiple goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Tonbridge Angels average 1.9 goals scored per game this season, but just 1.4 at home.
Defence
- →Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Chesham United have seen 80% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals.
How Tonbridge Angels and Chesham United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tonbridge Angelslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tonbridge Angels' recent form has dipped, with two straight losses and just one win in their last five, but their overall season record remains balanced at 4W 2D 4L. Chesham United have alternated between heavy defeats and high-scoring wins, averaging 3.2 goals scored but 2.4 conceded over their last five. Both teams have shown attacking promise but defensive instability heading into this fixture.
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United
The head-to-head record is tight, with Tonbridge Angels winning two of the last four meetings, Chesham United one, and one draw. Three of those four matches finished under 2.5 goals, but the most recent encounter saw Tonbridge win 1-0 away. Historically, these fixtures have been low scoring, but current form suggests a more open contest.
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Tonbridge Angels wins
1
Draws
1
Chesham United wins
Things to Watch: Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and recommended bets cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent match stats (shots, possession, corners) are unavailable, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Both teams have volatile recent form, especially Chesham, whose last five include a 7-2 win and a 0-4 loss.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tonbridge Angels 2–1 Chesham UnitedThe model favours Tonbridge Angels to edge a high-scoring contest, projecting a 2-1 home win. The single strongest data point is Chesham United's 80% over 2.5 goals rate, which, combined with both sides' recent defensive frailty, points to a match with multiple goals. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Tonbridge's home struggles resurface or Chesham's attack replicates their recent cup form, swinging the result towards a draw or away win.
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United: Common Questions
Who will win Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United?
Tonbridge Angels are given a 42% chance of victory, with the draw at 30% and Chesham United at 28%. The model leans towards a narrow home win based on season-long defensive and attacking rates.
Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United?
There is a 62% probability of both teams scoring, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five matches and both average over 1.5 goals scored per game this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United?
The model estimates a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Chesham's 80% over 2.5 rate and Tonbridge's 60%, alongside both teams' recent high-scoring games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Resources
Tonbridge Angels Predictions
All Tonbridge Angels fixtures & tips
Chesham United Predictions
All Chesham United fixtures & tips
Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
National League - South Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results