Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare Predictions
National League - South · England
Tonbridge Angels
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Weston-super-Mare
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare: Match Preview
Tonbridge Angels enter this fixture sitting 10th, three points ahead of 14th-placed Weston-super-Mare, but with a patchy run of form — two straight losses following a five-game stretch that included three wins. Weston-super-Mare, meanwhile, snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 home win last time out, but their away record is a concern: just one win and five defeats in seven on the road.
Statistically, this is a clash of productive but inconsistent attacks against leaky defences. Tonbridge average 1.75 goals scored per game and have netted in every one of their last five, while conceding 1.6 per match over that span. Weston-super-Mare's away defence has shipped 15 in seven, and they've failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last five overall. Both sides' matches trend over 2.5 goals (Tonbridge 56%, Weston 60%), and BTTS has landed in 3 of Tonbridge's last 5 and 4 of Weston's, suggesting a high likelihood of goals at both ends.
The model expects a goal-heavy contest, with Tonbridge's superior attacking output and home advantage giving them the edge. Weston's away frailties are likely to be exposed, but their attack remains a threat, especially late on. A 2-1 home win is the most probable outcome, but volatility in both teams' recent results keeps the draw and higher-scoring outcomes in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare that most previews miss.
- 1Weston-super-Mare have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five away matches.
- 2Tonbridge Angels have failed to draw a single home match this season (3W, 5L), indicating a low probability of stalemate.
- 3Across the last six H2H meetings, the away side has won three times, suggesting no overwhelming home advantage in this fixture.
Who do you think wins: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams are above 1.6 goals scored per game over their last five, and season-long over 2.5 rates are 56% for Tonbridge and 60% for Weston-super-Mare, supporting a high-scoring environment.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Tonbridge's last 5 and 4 of Weston's, with both sides averaging over a goal per game and neither defence showing consistent clean sheets.
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Match Result: Tonbridge Angels Win
Tonbridge's attack (1.75 goals/game) faces a Weston side conceding 2.14 per away match, and the home side's overall numbers are stronger despite recent losses.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction
Tonbridge Angels' attack has been productive across the season and especially at home, while Weston-super-Mare's away defensive record remains a liability. Both sides trend towards high-scoring games, with neither defence in dominant form. The statistical shape points to a match with multiple goals, with Tonbridge's slight edge in attacking output and home advantage likely to prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in at least 60% of their last five matches.
Attack
- →Tonbridge Angels average 1.75 goals scored per game this season, with 56% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Weston-super-Mare have lost five of seven away, conceding 15 goals (2.14 per away game).
How Tonbridge Angels and Weston-super-Mare Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Tonbridge Angelslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Weston-super-Marelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tonbridge Angels have alternated between strong attacking displays and defensive lapses, winning two of their last five but losing the most recent two. Weston-super-Mare halted a three-game losing run with a convincing 4-1 victory, but their away form remains suspect, with just one win and five defeats in seven road matches.
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare
The head-to-head record is competitive, with Weston-super-Mare winning three of the last six and Tonbridge two, plus a single draw. Matches have generally produced goals, with only one goalless draw and several games seeing both teams score. The away side has won three times in this span, suggesting no strong home bias.
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Tonbridge Angels wins
1
Draws
3
Weston-super-Mare wins
Things to Watch: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is inconsistent, with Tonbridge on a two-game losing streak and Weston-super-Mare showing volatility home and away.
- ⚠️No injury or lineup information available for either team.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tonbridge Angels 2–1 Weston-super-MareTonbridge Angels are projected to edge this contest 2-1, with the single strongest data point being Weston's 2.14 goals conceded per away game. The biggest risk to this call is the volatility in both teams' recent form, with neither side showing consistent defensive solidity or home/away dominance.
Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare: Common Questions
Who will win Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare?
Tonbridge Angels are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 26% for Weston-super-Mare and 30% for the draw. The home side's stronger attacking numbers and Weston's poor away record underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, supported by BTTS landing in 3 of Tonbridge's last 5 and 4 of Weston's, and neither side keeping more than two clean sheets in their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare?
There is a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams' matches exceeding that total in more than half of their fixtures this season (Tonbridge 56%, Weston 60%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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