US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
US Ben Guerdane
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
US Monastirienne
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10US Ben Guerdane Power Past 10-Man Monastir in Second-Half Surge
US Ben Guerdane claimed a vital 2-0 home victory over US Monastirienne at the 7 March Stadium, seizing control in the second half with two well-timed goals. After a tense and goalless opening period, the hosts broke the deadlock in the 58th minute and doubled their advantage just nine minutes later, capitalizing on their numerical superiority after Monastirienne were reduced to ten men. The match was a feisty affair, with six yellow cards and a red shown as tempers flared. Monastirienne’s discipline faltered, picking up four yellows and a costly red card, which shifted the momentum firmly in Ben Guerdane’s favor. The hosts managed the game professionally after taking their two-goal lead, seeing out a deserved win in front of their home supporters.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
58' — Goal
US Ben Guerdane break the deadlock with the opening goal.
67' — Goal
Ben Guerdane double their lead, putting the game out of reach.
Unknown' — Red Card
US Monastirienne reduced to ten men, turning the tide in Ben Guerdane’s favor.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of six yellow cards handed out in a heated contest.
US Ben Guerdane
US Ben Guerdane delivered a composed performance, particularly after halftime, to secure three points. Their patience paid off as they found breakthroughs in the 58th and 67th minutes, exploiting the extra space afforded by Monastirienne’s red card. Defensively solid and disciplined, Ben Guerdane kept their composure even as the match grew heated, conceding just two yellow cards themselves.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne started with promise but lost their way after the break, undermined by poor discipline that saw them collect four yellow cards and a red. Reduced to ten men, they struggled to contain Ben Guerdane’s attacks and failed to mount a meaningful response after falling behind. Their inability to keep their composure proved costly in a match that was finely balanced until the sending off.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams’ formations unlisted, the match’s tactical story was defined by discipline and game management. Ben Guerdane remained patient, waiting for their moment to strike, and took full advantage when Monastirienne’s defensive structure was compromised by the red card. The hosts pressed higher and committed more bodies forward after gaining the numerical edge, which paid off with two quick goals. Monastirienne, meanwhile, started aggressively but lost their shape and composure after the sending off, unable to adapt tactically to being a man down. Set pieces and transitions became more important as the match wore on, with Ben Guerdane exploiting the spaces left by their depleted opponents. The hosts’ disciplined approach contrasted sharply with Monastirienne’s rash challenges, which ultimately proved decisive.
Turning Point
The red card to US Monastirienne, which left them with ten men and opened the door for Ben Guerdane’s two-goal burst.
Man of the Match
Unknown (Goal Scorer 58')
Scored the crucial opener and set the tone for Ben Guerdane’s second-half dominance.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
13%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne have lost only 4 of 25 league games, have a strong defensive record (0.56 conceded per game, 52% clean sheets), and have drawn 8 of 13 away. Ben Guerdane have only 4 home wins and score just 0.6 per game. The away side are more consistent and less likely to lose.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams are among the lowest in Ligue 1 for over 2.5 goals (Ben Guerdane 16%, Monastirienne 24%). Recent form shows a combined 2 goals in the last 10 league games between them. Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game.
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Correct Score: 0–1
0-1 is the most probable single scoreline given Monastirienne’s defensive solidity, Ben Guerdane’s low scoring, and a history of low-scoring H2H matches.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne Prediction
This is a clash between two of Ligue 1’s most defensive teams, with US Ben Guerdane struggling in attack and US Monastirienne boasting one of the league’s best defensive records. Both sides have drawn a high number of matches, especially Monastirienne away from home (8/13). Recent form is uninspiring for the hosts (WDLLL), while Monastirienne are hard to beat (DDWLD) but rarely win on the road. Head-to-head history is dominated by low-scoring games and draws. Expect a tactical, cagey contest with few clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →US Ben Guerdane average just 0.6 goals per game and have only 4 home wins.
Defence
- →US Monastirienne have conceded only 14 goals in 25 matches (0.56/game), with 52% clean sheets.
- →Last 5 matches: Ben Guerdane 0.6 scored/1.4 conceded, Monastirienne 0.2 scored/0.2 conceded.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams have very low over 2.5 goal rates (Ben Guerdane 16%, Monastirienne 24%).
- →Recent H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings ended 0-0 or 1-0.
How US Ben Guerdane and US Monastirienne Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
US Ben Guerdanelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
US Monastiriennelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +51.85% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne
US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
US Ben Guerdane wins
2
Draws
3
US Monastirienne wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges or expected value can be calculated.
- ⚠️No advanced stats (shots, xG, possession) for recent matches; predictions rely on result-based stats.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games can be highly volatile; a single early goal could open the game up.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available; late team news could affect defensive solidity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for US Ben Guerdane vs US Monastirienne: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.