US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
US Monastirienne
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
ES Metlaoui
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.40
Over 2.5 Goals
13%
BTTS: Yes
19%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui?
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Where the Model Sees Value: US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have very low season over 2.5% (Monastirienne 23%, Metlaoui 19%), and recent form shows extremely low scoring with both sides averaging less than 1 goal scored per game and high clean sheet rates. H2H meetings are also typically low scoring.
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Match Result: Draw
US Monastirienne are strong at home but have drawn 4 of 12 at home, while ES Metlaoui draw frequently (12/26 this season) and 4 of last 10 H2H meetings were draws. Both teams are low scoring and defensively solid, increasing draw likelihood.
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BTTS: No
Monastirienne have failed to score in 4 of last 5, Metlaoui in 3 of last 5, and only 1 BTTS in last 5 for either side. Season BTTS rates are low and H2H is often one-sided or goalless.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Prediction
This Ligue 1 fixture is set up as a low-scoring, cagey affair between two defensively solid but offensively limited sides. US Monastirienne have a strong home record and rarely concede, but are struggling for goals recently. ES Metlaoui, while decent defensively, are poor away from home and also struggle to score. Both teams have a high draw rate and their H2H history is dominated by draws and low-scoring matches, suggesting a tight contest likely to be decided by a single goal or end goalless.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game in the last 5 matches.
Defence
- →US Monastirienne's home record: 7W 4D 1L, only 5 conceded in 12 home games.
- →3 clean sheets in last 5 for both sides, but also multiple failed to score.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →ES Metlaoui's away record: 3W 3D 7L, only 5 scored in 13 away games.
- →H2H: 4 of last 6 meetings drawn, most recent 2-2, 1-1, 0-0.
- →Season over 2.5 goal %: Monastirienne 23%, Metlaoui 19%.
How US Monastirienne and ES Metlaoui Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
US Monastiriennelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
ES Metlaouilast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui
US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
US Monastirienne wins
4
Draws
1
ES Metlaoui wins
Things to Watch: US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or corners data available for recent games—limits set piece and attack quality analysis.
- ⚠️Recent lineups incomplete, so player rotation or suspensions may not be captured.
- ⚠️Low scoring games can be decided by a single mistake or set piece, increasing variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.