Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Vitoria
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chapecoense-sc
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.7(+7% edge)
Recommended Bets: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc: Match Preview
Vitoria return to Barradão after a mixed run, sitting 13th with a strong home record (9 wins from 14) but a negative goal difference, reflecting defensive frailty. Chapecoense, bottom of the table and six points adrift of safety, have the league's worst defence and just one away win all season. Both sides have shown a tendency to draw—Vitoria six times, Chapecoense nine—but the hosts are more effective in front of their own fans.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Chapecoense's defensive vulnerability: they've conceded 53 goals in 27 matches (1.96 per game) and kept just two clean sheets all season. Vitoria's attack is modest (1.0 goal per game), but their home output (18 goals in 14) is enough to trouble a porous back line. Both teams average over 11 shots per game, and Chapecoense's last five league matches have all seen both teams score, suggesting a high probability of goals at both ends. Discipline and set-piece data are unremarkable, but both sides concede plenty of corners—Vitoria 4.8 and Chapecoense 3.0 per game in their last five.
The model expects a match with above-average goal potential, tilting towards Vitoria due to home advantage and Chapecoense's defensive record. The most likely scenario is a 2-1 home win, but the draw remains a live possibility given both teams' propensity for stalemates and defensive lapses. The main risk is Vitoria's inconsistency—if they underperform, Chapecoense could capitalise, especially given their recent improvement in attack.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 away league matches.
- 2BTTS has landed in 5 consecutive Chapecoense league games and 3 of Vitoria's last 5.
- 3Vitoria's home matches average just 0.86 goals conceded per game, compared to 1.71 away.
Who do you think wins: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.78
The model assigns a 29% probability to the draw, above the 27% implied by 3.7 odds. Both sides have averaged over 1.1 draws per 5 league games, and the last H2H ended level.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.81
BTTS has landed in all of Chapecoense's last 5 league games and 3 of Vitoria's last 5, with both teams conceding at least 1.5 per game on the season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.85
Chapecoense's matches have gone over 2.5 in 56% of games this season, and Vitoria's defensive record (1.5 conceded per game) suggests a higher goal environment than the league average.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
Vitoria's formidable home record meets a Chapecoense side with the league's leakiest defence, setting up a contest likely to be shaped by goalmouth action rather than midfield control. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede early and often, with Chapecoense's away matches averaging 2.5 goals per game and Vitoria's home fixtures only marginally lower. The underlying rates point to a match where both sides are more likely to score than to keep a clean sheet, but Vitoria's 9 wins from 14 at Barradão give them a statistical edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Vitoria have won 9 of 14 home league matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12.
- →Chapecoense have the lowest clean sheet rate in Serie A (7.4%) and have conceded 24 in 14 away games.
- →Both teams have averaged over 1.0 goals scored per game but concede at a higher rate than the league median.
🚩 Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Vitoria and 4.3 for Chapecoense-sc, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vitorialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vitoria's recent form is inconsistent, with just one win in their last five (LDWLL) and a worrying 1.8 goals conceded per game over that stretch. Chapecoense, while bottom of the table, have shown some resilience with two draws and a win in their last five, scoring in every match but continuing to leak goals.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
The head-to-head is finely balanced, with Vitoria edging four wins to Chapecoense's three in the last ten, and three draws. Recent meetings have been tight: the last encounter finished 1-1, and four of the last six have seen both teams score.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Vitoria wins
3
Draws
3
Chapecoense-sc wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
The strongest value edge appears on the draw at 3.7, with the model's 29% probability outpacing the market's 27% implied. Marginal value also exists on BTTS and over 2.5 goals, but these are closely aligned with bookmaker expectations, suggesting a well-priced goal market.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
- ⚠️Vitoria's recent form is patchy (LDWLL) and their defence has allowed 1.8 goals per game over the last 5.
- ⚠️Chapecoense's only away win all season came recently, but their overall away record is poor (1W, 4D, 9L).
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but both teams have rotated lineups in recent weeks.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vitoria 2–1 Chapecoense-scThe model projects a 2-1 win for Vitoria, anchored by their 64% home win/draw rate and Chapecoense's league-worst away defence. The strongest data point is Chapecoense's 7.4% clean sheet rate; if Vitoria's attack misfires or Chapecoense sustain their recent scoring uptick, the draw becomes the main danger.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc: Common Questions
Who will win Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Vitoria are favoured with a 49% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Chapecoense and 29% for the draw. This reflects Vitoria's strong home record and Chapecoense's defensive issues.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
There is a 56% chance both teams find the net, with Chapecoense seeing BTTS in all of their last five league matches and Vitoria conceding in four of their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
The model gives a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals, supported by Chapecoense's 56% season over 2.5 rate and both sides' recent defensive records.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.