Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Predictions
FA Cup · England
Wimborne Town
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Weston-super-Mare
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6/10Wimborne Town Edge Weston-super-Mare in Dramatic FA Cup Penalty Shootout
Wimborne Town emerged victorious in a nail-biting FA Cup clash against Weston-super-Mare, prevailing 3-2 on penalties after the two sides could not be separated in regular and extra time. With both teams locked in a stalemate throughout the match, the contest was ultimately decided from the spot, where Wimborne Town held their nerve to progress. The tie was a tense affair, with neither side able to find a breakthrough during open play. The lack of goals belied the drama that unfolded, culminating in a penalty shootout that saw Wimborne Town convert three of their spot kicks to Weston-super-Mare's two. The match, devoid of bookings or dismissals, was played in a competitive but fair spirit, ultimately coming down to composure under pressure.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
Full Time' — Stalemate
Neither side able to break the deadlock in regular and extra time.
Penalty Shootout' — Wimborne Town win 3-2 on penalties
Wimborne Town hold their nerve to convert three penalties, clinching the tie.
Wimborne Town
Wimborne Town showed resilience and mental strength, especially when the match went to penalties. While details of their attacking or defensive play are unavailable, their ability to hold Weston-super-Mare at bay and then deliver under pressure in the shootout speaks volumes about their focus and determination on the night.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare matched their hosts stride for stride over the course of regular and extra time, but ultimately fell short in the penalty shootout. Their inability to convert more than two penalties proved costly after a hard-fought contest where neither side could find a decisive moment in open play.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no detailed lineup or formation data available, both teams appeared evenly matched, focusing on defensive solidity and risk management given the high stakes of a knockout FA Cup tie. The absence of cards suggests a disciplined approach from both sides, with neither team resorting to rash challenges. The match's goalless nature points to a lack of clear-cut chances or incisive attacking play, with both defences on top throughout. Ultimately, the tactical battle was defined by caution and structure, with the game progressing to penalties where individual composure rather than tactical nuance decided the outcome.
Turning Point
The decisive moment came in the penalty shootout, as Wimborne Town converted their third penalty to take an unassailable lead.
Man of the Match
Wimborne Town Penalty Takers
Showed composure and accuracy under immense pressure to win the shootout.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare: Match Preview
Wimborne Town approach this FA Cup replay on the back of a 1-1 draw away at Weston-super-Mare, extending their unbeaten run to five matches (DWDDD). Defensive resilience has been their hallmark, with four clean sheets in that stretch and just one goal conceded, though scoring remains an issue—three of their last five have ended goalless for Wimborne. Weston-super-Mare, meanwhile, have mixed results: two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five, with a slightly higher scoring output but still only one clean sheet in that period.
The statistical matchup points toward a low-scoring contest. Wimborne average just 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game over the last five, while Weston-super-Mare have managed 1.2 for and 0.8 against in the same span. Both teams have a season over 2.5 goals rate below 35%, and their last meeting finished 1-1. Neither side generates enough attacking volume to suggest a high-scoring replay, and first-half goals have been rare—just three combined across both teams’ last ten matches.
Given the defensive records and recent H2H history, the model expects a cautious start and few clear chances, with Weston-super-Mare’s marginally better attacking rate giving them a slight edge. The likeliest outcome is a single-goal margin or a draw, with under 2.5 goals the standout statistical angle.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare that most previews miss.
- 1Wimborne Town have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just one goal in that span.
- 2Only one of the last six H2H meetings produced more than two goals, with three finishing 1-1 or 0-0.
- 3Wimborne have failed to score in three of their last five, while Weston-super-Mare have scored more than once only once in their last five.
Who do you think wins: Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have played predominantly low-scoring matches—Wimborne Town averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over their last five, Weston-super-Mare with only one over 2.5 in their last five, and both sides showing a combined over 2.5 rate below 35% across all competitions.
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Match Result: Draw
The last meeting finished 1-1, and both teams have drawn multiple recent fixtures (Wimborne: 4 of last 5; Weston-super-Mare: 2 of last 5), with neither attack showing enough to break open a replay.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction
Statistically, this replay projects as a tight, low-scoring contest, shaped by Wimborne Town’s defensive solidity (four clean sheets in their last five) and Weston-super-Mare’s marginally superior attacking output but modest away pedigree. Both sides have drawn more than they’ve won in recent weeks, and the underlying rates point toward another close affair decided by fine margins.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →The last H2H finished 1-1, and neither side has an over 2.5 goals rate above 33% this season.
Defence
- →Wimborne Town have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just once in that span.
- →Weston-super-Mare have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five but have failed to score in one of those games.
How Wimborne Town and Weston-super-Mare Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Wimborne Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Weston-super-Marelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wimborne Town are unbeaten in their last five, but four of those have been draws and three were goalless for them. Weston-super-Mare have shown a slightly better attack with two wins and two draws in their last five, but have also been involved in several low-scoring matches. Both sides’ recent games suggest a cautious approach and limited attacking threat.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare hold a slight historical edge, winning four of the last nine meetings, including two convincing away victories. However, the most recent fixture ended 1-1, and draws have been common in this matchup, particularly in recent years. Goals have been scarce, with only one of the last six H2H producing more than two.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Wimborne Town wins
2
Draws
4
Weston-super-Mare wins
Things to Watch: Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value estimation is not possible.
- ⚠️Missing advanced match stats (shots, possession, corners) limits precision on expected goal and set-piece rates.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams’ season records, especially for Weston-super-Mare away from home.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Wimborne Town 0–1 Weston-super-MareA 1-0 win for Weston-super-Mare is the model’s top pick, driven by their marginally higher scoring rate (1.2 per game last five) against a Wimborne side that has struggled to create clear chances. The biggest risk is Wimborne’s defensive organisation holding out for another draw, as seen in four of their last five matches.
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare: Common Questions
Who will win Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
The model gives Weston-super-Mare a 36% chance of winning in regulation, Wimborne Town 23%, and a draw 41%. Both teams have drawn several recent fixtures, so a close, low-scoring match is expected.
Will both teams score in Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
Both teams to score is rated at just 33%, with 'no' the stronger side at 67%. Wimborne have failed to score in three of their last five, and clean sheets are common in their recent matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare?
Under 2.5 goals is the model’s strongest angle, with a 72% probability. Both sides have played predominantly low-scoring matches, and only one of their last six H2H meetings went over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.