Worksop Town vs Chorley Predictions
National League - North · England
Worksop Town
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chorley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Worksop Town vs Chorley
Worksop Town vs Chorley: Match Preview
Worksop Town and Chorley arrive at Sandy Lane Stadium locked on 20 points each, sitting side by side in the National League North table. Worksop's recent form string (LWDDW) is steadier than Chorley's (LLWLL), with the hosts taking 7 points from their last five and Chorley losing four of their last five in all competitions. Both sides have negative goal differences and are mid-table, but Worksop's home record (4 wins, 4 losses) offers a slight edge over Chorley's patchy away form (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses).
The statistical profile points to a high-goal environment: Worksop's matches average 2.73 goals, Chorley's 3.13, and both teams have over 60% of their games finishing above 2.5 goals. Defensively, neither side is reliable—Worksop keep a clean sheet just 20% of the time at home, while Chorley manage only 13.3% away. Both teams have a tendency to start quickly, with Worksop netting 7 first-half goals in their last five and Chorley scoring 3 in the same period. The head-to-head record reinforces the expectation of goals, with all three recent meetings seeing both sides find the net.
The model expects an open contest with both teams likely to score and a slight statistical tilt towards Worksop, thanks to their marginally stronger home goal difference and steadier form. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the volatility in both sides' results and defensive frailty means a draw or high-scoring stalemate is well within range.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Worksop Town vs Chorley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Worksop Town vs Chorley that most previews miss.
- 1Chorley have seen over 2.5 goals in 11 of their 15 league matches this season (73.3%).
- 2Worksop Town have failed to draw at home this season (4 wins, 4 losses in 8 home games).
- 3All three previous head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Worksop Town vs Chorley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Worksop Town vs Chorley(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have high season over 2.5 goal rates (Worksop Town 60%, Chorley 73.3%), with a combined average of 2.8 goals scored and 3.07 conceded per game, supporting a high-goal environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams to score has landed in 3 of Worksop's last 5 and 2 of Chorley's last 5, with both sides averaging below 20% clean sheet rates for the season.
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More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Worksop Town vs Chorley Prediction
Two mid-table sides with identical points and negative goal differences meet at Sandy Lane Stadium, each seeking a foothold in the congested National League North standings. Worksop Town's recent form is slightly steadier (LWDDW), while Chorley arrive on a two-game losing streak and have struggled for away consistency. Both have shown vulnerability at the back, but Worksop's home record (4W, 4L, 12:9) is marginally stronger than Chorley's away return (2W, 1D, 4L, 7:11). Statistically, the fixture is shaped by high concession rates and a strong over 2.5 goals profile: Worksop average 1.33 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, Chorley 1.6 scored and 1.67 conceded. Chorley's away defence (11 conceded in 7) is particularly leaky, while Worksop have failed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of their home matches. Both sides see most of their goals in the first half (Worksop: 7 first-half goals in last 5; Chorley: 3), suggesting an open start. Neither side is notably disciplined, but cards and corners data is incomplete. Given the goal rates and the head-to-head history (each side has won once, one draw, all matches with both teams scoring), the model expects a competitive, high-scoring contest. The likeliest outcome is a narrow Worksop win, but the draw and away win remain live given both teams' volatility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Worksop Town's home matches average 2.63 goals per game (12 scored, 9 conceded in 8).
- →Chorley away concede 1.57 goals per game and have only one away clean sheet this season.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a season over 2.5 goals rate above 60% (Worksop 60%, Chorley 73.3%).
How Worksop Town and Chorley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Worksop Town vs Chorley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Worksop Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worksop Town have stabilised after a rocky start, taking 7 points from their last five matches and posting a dominant 5-0 home win over King's Lynn Town. Chorley, by contrast, have lost four of their last five in all competitions, with their only recent win coming away at Radcliffe. Both teams' overall records are identical, but Worksop's current momentum is slightly stronger.
Worksop Town vs Chorley — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 73.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
What History Says: Worksop Town vs Chorley
The last three meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with each team winning once and one draw. All three matches have seen both teams score, including a 2-1 away win for Worksop in the most recent encounter. There is no clear historical dominance, but the trend points strongly towards goals at both ends.
Worksop Town vs Chorley Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Worksop Town wins
1
Draws
1
Chorley wins
Things to Watch: Worksop Town vs Chorley
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data available for either side, limiting tactical granularity.
- ⚠️Odds data is missing, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is volatile, increasing scoreline uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Worksop Town 2–1 ChorleyThe model projects a 2-1 win for Worksop Town, driven by both teams' high concession rates and the consistent over 2.5 goals trend in their matches. The single strongest data point is Chorley's 73.3% over 2.5 goals rate, paired with Worksop's 60%. The main risk lies in both teams' erratic form and the possibility of a finishing slump or a rare clean sheet skewing the result.
Worksop Town vs Chorley: Common Questions
Who will win Worksop Town vs Chorley?
Worksop Town are marginal favourites with a 38% win probability, compared to 29% for Chorley and 33% for the draw. Both teams have identical points and negative goal differences, but Worksop's steadier recent form and home advantage tip the balance.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Worksop Town vs Chorley?
There is a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals, supported by Worksop's 60% and Chorley's 73.3% season rates for high-scoring games. Both teams combine for over 3 goals per match on average.
Will both teams score in Worksop Town vs Chorley?
The model gives a 61% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting both sides' low clean sheet rates (Worksop 20%, Chorley 13.3%) and a head-to-head record where both have scored in all three recent meetings.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Worksop Town vs Chorley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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