Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Wuhan Three Towns
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Wuhan Three Towns Edge Chongqing Tongliang Long in Gritty 1-0 Home Win
Wuhan Three Towns secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long at the Wuhan Sports Centre, thanks to a decisive first-half goal in the 40th minute. Despite conceding the lion’s share of possession (38% to 62%) and facing 14 shots from the visitors, the hosts held firm defensively to claim all three points in this closely contested Super League encounter. Chongqing Tongliang Long, set up in a defensively solid 5-2-3, dominated the ball and created more shooting opportunities, but were ultimately unable to break down a disciplined Wuhan backline. The match was characterized by tactical discipline, with both sides showing flashes of attacking intent but ultimately being separated by a single clinical moment before halftime.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
J. Cádiz scores for Wuhan Three Towns, finishing a swift attacking move to break the deadlock.
53' — Yellow Card
Chongqing Tongliang Long’s Zhang Zhixiong is booked for a late challenge in midfield.
70' — Corner
Chongqing win back-to-back corners, increasing pressure but failing to convert.
85' — Save
Fang Jingqi makes a crucial save to deny L. Dimata and preserve Wuhan’s lead.
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns made the most of their limited possession, staying compact in a 4-3-3 and striking just before halftime. Their defensive organization was impressive, restricting Chongqing to only three shots on target despite the visitors’ territorial dominance. The hosts’ ability to weather pressure and maintain composure under siege was key to their victory. Going forward, Wuhan were efficient, registering 12 shots and four on target, and capitalized on a crucial opportunity in the 40th minute. Their midfield and backline worked tirelessly to disrupt Chongqing’s rhythm and protect the slender lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long controlled the tempo with 62% possession and outshot the hosts, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Their 5-2-3 formation allowed for width and ball retention, but they struggled to convert territorial dominance into clear chances. Defensively, they limited Wuhan to just four shots on target, but a lapse shortly before halftime was punished. Despite pushing forward in the second half and winning four corners, Chongqing could not find a way past the disciplined Wuhan defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns set up in a 4-3-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their compact shape frustrated Chongqing’s attempts to play through the middle, forcing the visitors to rely on crosses and shots from distance. The hosts’ front three pressed selectively, while the midfield trio dropped deep to shield the back four. Chongqing Tongliang Long’s 5-2-3 formation allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play, but they struggled to penetrate Wuhan’s disciplined lines. Their wingbacks provided attacking width, but the lack of numbers in central areas limited their threat. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh legs but did not alter the tactical balance significantly.
Turning Point
J. Cádiz’s goal in the 40th minute gave Wuhan a lead to defend and shifted the momentum, forcing Chongqing to chase the game.
Man of the Match
J. Cádiz
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with determination.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Match Preview
Wuhan Three Towns approach this fixture at the foot of the Super League table, having failed to win in their last five (form: LLDDD) and conceding 10 goals in that span. Their home record (2W, 2D, 3L, 10:10 goal difference) is marginally better than their overall numbers, but defensive issues persist. Chongqing Tongliang Long, by contrast, sit second with 28 points from 18 matches and a balanced away record (3W, 3D, 3L, 9:11 goal difference), but have also drawn seven times, indicating a tendency to keep games close.
The statistical matchup is defined by Wuhan's leaky defence (2.0 goals conceded per game, clean sheet rate just 5.9%) against a Chongqing side that are compact but unspectacular in attack (1.22 goals per away game, 2.4 shots on target per game in their last five). Both teams see more action in the second half (Wuhan: 5 first-half, 3 second-half goals in last five; Chongqing: 2 first-half, 5 second-half), and both average under 2 corners per game recently, suggesting limited set-piece threat. Discipline is a concern for the hosts, averaging 4 yellow cards per game over their last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-to-mid scoring match, with Chongqing's defensive consistency and league position giving them the edge. However, Wuhan's high draw rate and the visitors' limited attacking output away from home keep the probability of a draw elevated. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the draw is nearly as probable based on season-long distribution.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long that most previews miss.
- 1Wuhan Three Towns have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 league matches (season clean sheet rate: 5.9%).
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long's away matches average just 2.22 total goals (9 for, 11 against in 9 games).
- 3Both teams have drawn at least 38% of their league matches (Wuhan 7/17, Chongqing 7/18), well above league average.
Who do you think wins: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.6
The draw probability is estimated at 31% (odds 3.60 imply 28%), giving a +12% edge. Wuhan Three Towns have drawn 7 of 17 this season and Chongqing Tongliang Long have drawn 7 of 18, supporting a high draw rate.
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The Case For This Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
Statistical indicators point to a competitive contest, with Wuhan Three Towns' defensive frailties offset by Chongqing Tongliang Long's modest away scoring rate. The model expects the visitors' superior league position and defensive solidity to edge out the home side, but with a high probability of a close scoreline and a significant chance of a draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Wuhan Three Towns have conceded 2.0 goals per game this season, the highest in the league.
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long keep clean sheets in 39% of matches, but average just 1.22 goals per game away.
Match Context
- →Both sides have drawn over 38% of their league matches, suggesting a high draw baseline.
🚩 Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for Wuhan Three Towns and 3.7 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Wuhan Three Townslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Wuhan Three Towns are winless in their last five league matches (LLDDD), conceding 10 goals and collecting just two points in that span. Chongqing Tongliang Long have been steadier, taking 8 points from their last five (DLWWL), and remain solidly in the top two, though their away form is mixed.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
These sides have met only once previously, with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning 2-1 at home earlier this season. The limited head-to-head data offers little trend insight, but the away side took the points in the reverse fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Wuhan Three Towns wins
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
The strongest value edge appears on the draw, with the model's 31% probability outpacing typical odds (3.60, implied 28%). Both teams' high draw rates support this. Other markets, such as under 2.5 goals, show little value based on current probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️Only one previous head-to-head exists, limiting historical matchup insight.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small; last 5 games may not fully capture underlying team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Chongqing Tongliang LongThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chongqing Tongliang Long, driven by Wuhan's league-worst defensive record (2.0 goals conceded per game) and the visitors' superior standing. However, the high draw rate for both sides and Chongqing's modest away attack mean a 1-1 or 1-2 scoreline are both plausible, with the draw the most likely way the prediction could go wrong.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Common Questions
Who will win Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chongqing Tongliang Long are favoured with a 46% win probability, compared to 23% for Wuhan Three Towns and 31% for the draw. The visitors' defensive solidity and higher league position give them the edge, but both teams have a high draw rate.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%. Wuhan have scored in 4 of their last 5, but have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 straight, while Chongqing have scored in every one of their last five league matches.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
The model gives a 53% probability to over 2.5 goals and 47% to under, reflecting Wuhan's high concession rate but Chongqing's modest away attack. The most likely scorelines are 1-2 and 1-1.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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