Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill Predictions
FA Cup · England
Yaxley
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Buckhurst Hill
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill: Match Preview
Yaxley approach this FA Cup tie on the back of a mixed run, posting one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five outings, with defensive issues evident—conceding 17 goals across that stretch. Buckhurst Hill have fared little better, losing four of five and shipping 14 goals, but did record a morale-boosting 2-0 friendly win last time out. With no league form or standings to reference, both teams enter with something to prove and little to lose.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards a high-scoring affair. Yaxley’s attack has averaged 1.6 goals per game recently, while their defence has been breached at least twice in every match bar one. Buckhurst Hill have managed just 0.8 goals for per game, but face a Yaxley back line that has yet to keep a clean sheet in five. Both teams’ recent games have seen frequent BTTS outcomes (4/5 for Yaxley, 2/5 for Buckhurst Hill) and over 2.5 goals (four of the last five for Yaxley, three for Buckhurst Hill).
The model expects a contest defined by defensive vulnerabilities rather than attacking brilliance, with Yaxley’s marginally better scoring rate and home advantage tipping the balance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the volatility of recent results for both sides makes a draw or a high-scoring stalemate plausible if neither defence improves.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill that most previews miss.
- 1Yaxley’s last five matches have averaged exactly five goals per game, with only one clean sheet between the two sides in their combined last ten.
- 2Both teams have conceded at least three goals in three of their last five matches, highlighting defensive instability.
- 3Yaxley have scored in four consecutive home matches across all competitions, despite conceding heavily.
Who do you think wins: Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have conceded heavily in recent cup matches, with Yaxley averaging 3.4 goals against and Buckhurst Hill 2.8 in their last five, supporting a high-goal environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Yaxley have seen BTTS in four of their last five, while Buckhurst Hill have failed to score in two but face a defence conceding 3.4 per game.
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The Case For This Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill Prediction
Recent defensive frailty on both sides, coupled with above-average goal rates, points to a match with multiple scoring chances and a probable home edge. Yaxley's attack has produced at least one goal in four of their last five, while Buckhurst Hill have struggled defensively and failed to keep a clean sheet in four of five. The most likely scenario is a narrow home win with both teams on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Yaxley average 1.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded per match over their last five.
- →Buckhurst Hill have lost four of their last five, conceding 2.8 per game.
Match Context
- →Both teams' recent matches skew strongly toward over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
How Yaxley and Buckhurst Hill Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Yaxleylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Buckhurst Hilllast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Yaxley have struggled defensively, losing three of their last five and conceding 17 goals, but have managed to score in four of those games. Buckhurst Hill’s form is similarly poor, with four losses in five and only one clean sheet, though they did win their most recent friendly. Both teams enter the tie with defensive concerns and inconsistent results.
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
What History Says: Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no historical trends can be drawn between Yaxley and Buckhurst Hill.
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Yaxley wins
1
Draws
0
Buckhurst Hill wins
Things to Watch: Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill
- ⚠️No league or season-long data available for either side; all rates are based on small FA Cup and friendly samples.
- ⚠️No odds available, so value cannot be precisely calculated.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or standings data to benchmark relative strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Yaxley 2–1 Buckhurst HillThe data points to a 2-1 win for Yaxley, underpinned by their higher recent scoring rate (1.6 per match) and Buckhurst Hill’s run of four losses in five. The main risk is the small sample size and lack of league context, which could mean either side’s defensive numbers are misleading—making a high-scoring draw or away upset plausible.
Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill: Common Questions
Who will win Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?
Yaxley are modelled as 41% likely to win, with Buckhurst Hill at 28% and the draw at 31%. The edge comes from Yaxley’s higher recent scoring rate and home advantage, but both teams have shown defensive frailty.
Will both teams score in Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?
There is a 59% probability that both teams will score, as Yaxley have seen BTTS in four of their last five and Buckhurst Hill face a defence conceding 3.4 per game.
How many goals are expected in Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?
The model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 84% chance of over 1.5, based on both teams’ recent matches averaging over three goals per game combined.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.