Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Aberdeen
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Kilmarnock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+6% edge)
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
Both teams have struggled for consistent wins, recent form is patchy, and H2H is balanced with no draws in last 10 but several close games. Model probability for draw (0.36) is higher than odds-implied (0.30), indicating value.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction
Aberdeen and Kilmarnock meet in a clash between two sides with poor recent form and defensive vulnerabilities. Aberdeen's home record is only modest, while Kilmarnock have been poor away, conceding heavily. However, both teams have shown an ability to keep games tight at times, and their head-to-head history is balanced, though notably without draws in recent meetings. Expect a cautious, low-scoring contest where neither side dominates, with a draw the most likely outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Aberdeen: WLLDL form, only 1 win in last 5, low goals scored (0.8/game last 5), but solid home record compared to Kilmarnock's away form.
- →Goal patterns: Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game, and Aberdeen have a low over 2.5 rate (33%).
Defence
- →Kilmarnock: DLWWL form, slightly better recent results, but just 1 away win all season and 38 goals conceded in 16 away games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →H2H: Last 10 meetings have all produced a winner, but the games are often close; Aberdeen won the last home meeting 2-1.
🚩 Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Aberdeen and 5.2 for Kilmarnock, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Aberdeen and Kilmarnock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Aberdeen wins
0
Draws
5
Kilmarnock wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Odds from William Hill. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
- ⚠️Very low attacking output from both sides in recent matches increases risk of a 0-0 or 1-0/0-1 outcome.
- ⚠️Lack of first-half goals in Aberdeen's recent matches makes early goals less likely.
- ⚠️No draws in last 10 H2H is statistically unusual and could regress to mean.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games (shots, lineups) slightly reduces confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.