AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Celta de Vigo II
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Celta de Vigo II Win
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II: Match Preview
AD Ceuta FC come into this fixture bottom of the table after two heavy defeats, having conceded seven times and scored just once across their opening league matches. Their form string of 'LLWWL' is flattered by pre-season friendlies; in competitive action, the side has struggled for cohesion at both ends. Celta de Vigo II, by contrast, are unbeaten in the league (WD), sit fourth, and have already shown attacking intent with four goals scored in their home win over Andorra.
The statistical matchup is stark: Ceuta's defensive frailty (3.5 goals conceded per game, 0% clean sheets) contrasts with a Celta de Vigo II side averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, and who kept a clean sheet in their only away fixture so far. Ceuta's home attack has yet to find the net in league play, while Celta de Vigo II's second-half goal output (7 of their last 10 goals after the break) suggests they grow into matches. Discipline could also play a role, with both sides averaging over a card per game in recent outings.
The model expects Celta de Vigo II to assert their quality, particularly after half-time, exploiting Ceuta's defensive lapses. While Ceuta may threaten late on, the away side's superior rates in both boxes make them clear favourites to take all three points. A 2-1 away win is the most likely outcome, with the goal environment tilted slightly above the league average.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II that most previews miss.
- 1Ceuta have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding multiple goals in four of those.
- 2Celta de Vigo II have scored seven of their last ten goals in the second half, indicating a late-game scoring trend.
- 3Both previous H2H meetings saw both teams score, with Celta de Vigo II unbeaten (one win, one draw).
Who do you think wins: AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Celta de Vigo II Win
Celta de Vigo II have averaged 2 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game so far, while Ceuta have shipped 3.5 goals per game and sit bottom with two losses. The away side's superior defensive record and current form string (WDWDW) make them the more likely winners.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen 50% of their league games go over 2.5 goals, and Ceuta's defence is conceding at a high rate (3.5 per game). The model gives a slight edge to the over, with 52% probability.
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BTTS: Yes
Ceuta have failed to score in only one of their last five, and Celta de Vigo II have kept just one clean sheet in their last five competitive games. BTTS has landed in 4 of Ceuta's last 5 matches.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction
Statistical indicators point to Celta de Vigo II as the stronger outfit, with a clear edge in both scoring and defensive rates. Ceuta's early-season numbers are concerning, particularly their 0% clean sheet rate and 3.5 goals conceded per match, while Celta de Vigo II arrive unbeaten and with a positive goal difference. Expect the away side to control the tempo and create the better chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ceuta have conceded 7 goals in 2 league matches (3.5 per game), the worst in the division.
- →Celta de Vigo II have scored 2 goals per game and conceded just 1 per game so far.
- →Ceuta's home attack has yet to score in the league; Celta de Vigo II kept a clean sheet in their only away match.
🚩 AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for AD Ceuta FC and 4.2 for Celta de Vigo II, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How AD Ceuta FC and Celta de Vigo II Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Celta de Vigo IIlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ceuta have lost both league matches, conceding heavily and failing to score at home, while their only recent wins came in friendlies. Celta de Vigo II are unbeaten in competitive play this season, with a convincing home win and a solid away draw, and have averaged two goals per game. Momentum and underlying rates both favour the visitors.
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II have the edge historically, winning 3-1 away in 2022 and drawing 1-1 at home in 2023. Both matches featured goals for each side, but Ceuta have yet to beat Celta de Vigo II in this matchup.
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
AD Ceuta FC wins
1
Draws
1
Celta de Vigo II wins
Things to Watch: AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II
- ⚠️Small sample size: only two league games played for each side, so rates may not fully reflect true strength.
- ⚠️Ceuta's friendlies showed more attacking output, but competitive form has been poor.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations cannot be performed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II's superior defensive and attacking rates, combined with Ceuta's league-worst concession rate, point to a 2-1 away win. The single strongest data point is Ceuta's 3.5 goals conceded per league game. The main risk is that Ceuta's attacking numbers from pre-season reappear at home, narrowing the margin or forcing a high-scoring draw.
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II: Common Questions
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
The model gives Celta de Vigo II a 48% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Ceuta and 30% for the draw. This is based on Celta de Vigo II's stronger scoring and defensive rates so far.
Will both teams score in AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with Ceuta having scored in 4 of their last 5 and Celta de Vigo II conceding in 3 of their last 5. Both previous head-to-heads also saw goals at both ends.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The model estimates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, slightly higher than average, due to Ceuta's high concession rate (3.5 per game) and Celta de Vigo II's attacking output (2 per game).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.