Al-Hazm vs NEOM Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Hazm
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
NEOM
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
6.9/10Al-Hazm Hold NEOM in Tactical Deadlock Despite Lacazette Equaliser
Al-Hazm and NEOM played out a 1-1 draw at the Al Hazm Club Stadium, with both sides settling for a point after an engaging tactical battle. The hosts struck first late in the first half, but NEOM responded early in the second period, and despite dominating possession, were unable to break down a resolute Al-Hazm defence for a winner. NEOM controlled the tempo with 62% possession and a 9-7 advantage in total shots, but both teams managed just three shots on target apiece, reflecting the disciplined defensive structures on display. The match saw its share of physicality, with Al-Hazm picking up three yellow cards, while NEOM kept a clean disciplinary record. Ultimately, neither side could find the clinical edge required to claim all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
Key Moments
41' — Goal
Aboubacar Diakite puts Al-Hazm ahead against the run of play.
55' — Goal
A. Lacazette equalises for NEOM, finishing off a well-worked move.
67' — Yellow Card
S. Bendebka booked for a late challenge as Al-Hazm try to stem NEOM's momentum.
74' — Yellow Card
Bonheur Mugisha receives a yellow card for a tactical foul.
83' — Yellow Card
Saud Al Rashed cautioned for time-wasting as Al-Hazm defend deep.
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm set up in a 3-4-3 formation, prioritising compactness and organisation over possession. Despite seeing just 38% of the ball, they were effective in transition and took the lead in the 41st minute. Their defensive line, marshalled by J. Staněk in goal, held firm under sustained NEOM pressure, conceding only once and limiting the visitors to few clear chances. Al-Hazm's midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt NEOM's rhythm, but a lack of attacking threat after their opener meant they were forced to defend deep for much of the second half. Their discipline wavered at times, as evidenced by three yellow cards, yet their resilience ensured a valuable point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
NEOM
NEOM lined up in a 4-4-2 and asserted control from the outset, dictating play with 62% possession and a higher shot count. Their midfield, led by V. Vada and A. Koné, circulated the ball well, while the front pairing of A. Lacazette and Haroune Camara posed a constant threat. Lacazette's equaliser in the 55th minute was just reward for their pressure. However, NEOM struggled to convert dominance into clear-cut chances, with just three shots on target. Their defence was rarely troubled after conceding, and their discipline was exemplary, committing fewer fouls and avoiding bookings. Ultimately, a lack of cutting edge in the final third prevented them from claiming victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Hazm's 3-4-3 formation was designed for defensive solidity and quick transitions, with wing-backs dropping deep to form a back five when out of possession. Their approach limited NEOM's space in central areas, forcing the visitors to rely on wide play and set pieces. NEOM's 4-4-2, meanwhile, emphasised ball retention and overlapping full-backs, but their attacking moves often stalled at the edge of the box due to Al-Hazm's compactness. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject fresh legs and attacking impetus, but neither team significantly altered their tactical shape. NEOM's pressing increased after their equaliser, but Al-Hazm's defensive discipline held firm, and the match ultimately fizzled out as both sides settled for a point.
Turning Point
A. Lacazette's equaliser in the 55th minute shifted momentum firmly in NEOM's favour, but Al-Hazm's defensive resolve ensured the visitors could not capitalise further.
Man of the Match
J. Staněk
Produced vital saves and marshalled the Al-Hazm defence under heavy pressure, preserving the draw.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM: Match Preview
NEOM travel to Al-Hazm riding a wave of momentum after three consecutive league wins, a run that has propelled them to fifth in the table with 15 points from seven matches. Their attack has been in sharp form, netting nine times in their last three games, while Al-Hazm have struggled to find a spark at home, scoring just twice in three matches at the Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Al-Hazm's recent form is patchy, with only one win in five and a negative goal difference, leaving them mid-table and searching for consistency.
Statistically, NEOM's attack is the standout unit in this fixture, averaging 1.86 goals per game over the season and 1.8 in their last five. Their shot volume (14.8 per match) and possession figures (54.4%) dwarf Al-Hazm's more modest output, and defensively NEOM have been robust away from home, conceding just one goal in three away matches. Al-Hazm's attack has been blunt, averaging 0.67 goals per home game, and their last five matches have seen them score just five times. Set-piece data favours NEOM as well, with 5.2 corners per game compared to Al-Hazm's 4.2, and both sides average over 11 fouls per match, suggesting a contest with a moderate card count.
The model projects a controlled away performance, with NEOM likely to edge the shot count and create the higher-quality chances. The probability distribution points to a moderate-scoring match, with NEOM's efficiency in both penalty areas and current form giving them the edge. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but a low-scoring draw remains plausible if Al-Hazm can frustrate early.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Hazm vs NEOM that most previews miss.
- 1NEOM have conceded just 0.33 goals per away match this season (1 in 3 games).
- 2Al-Hazm's home matches are averaging only 1.33 total goals per game so far.
- 3Across the last five H2H meetings, the away team has won three times and only one match has gone over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
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The Case For This Al-Hazm vs NEOM Prediction
NEOM arrive in Ar Rass in the midst of a three-match winning streak, having scored nine and conceded only two in that run. Al-Hazm, by contrast, have just one win in their last five and have managed only two goals in three home outings this season. The table positions reflect the underlying rates: NEOM sit fifth with a +7 goal difference, while Al-Hazm are mid-table with a negative differential. The matchup is defined by NEOM's superior attacking output—1.86 goals per game over the season, rising to 2.33 in their last three—against an Al-Hazm defence conceding 1.29 per match. Al-Hazm's home attack has been particularly blunt (0.67 goals per home game), and their shot volume (11 per match) lags behind NEOM's 14.8. The away side's defensive record on the road is strong, with just one goal conceded in three away matches, while Al-Hazm have failed to score in one of their last three at home. The model expects NEOM to control the shot count and possession, with a high probability of scoring first. While Al-Hazm may keep it competitive early, NEOM's efficiency in both boxes and their recent form tip the balance. The most likely scenario is a narrow away win in a match with a moderate goal total.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al-Hazm's home attack is producing just 0.67 goals per game.
Defence
- →NEOM average 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game this season.
- →NEOM have won three straight and have conceded only once in their last three away games.
🚩 Al-Hazm vs NEOM Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Al-Hazm and 4.8 for NEOM, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Al-Hazm and NEOM Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Hazmlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NEOMlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NEOM are in the midst of a three-match winning streak, scoring nine goals and conceding just two in that period. Al-Hazm, by contrast, have won only once in their last five, with a form string of LWDDL and a negative goal difference. The momentum and underlying rates clearly favour the visitors.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
What History Says: Al-Hazm vs NEOM
NEOM have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five meetings and both of their last two trips to Al-Hazm. Most matches in this series have been tight, with only one of the last five producing more than three goals and several decided by a single goal margin.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Al-Hazm wins
2
Draws
3
NEOM wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Hazm vs NEOM
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so no value edges can be identified. If odds become available, the model's probabilities suggest that value would most likely appear on NEOM in the 1X2 or double chance markets, given their strong away record and Al-Hazm's blunt attack.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Hazm vs NEOM
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges or recommended bets are listed.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' home/away splits (3 matches each).
- ⚠️No injury or suspension information affecting lineups, but late changes could impact probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Hazm 1–2 NEOMThe model calls this 2-1 to NEOM, with their superior away defensive record (just one goal conceded in three away games) the single strongest data point. The main risk is Al-Hazm's ability to grind out low-scoring draws at home, as seen in their 1-1 and 0-0 recent results, which could suppress the goal count or snatch a point.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
The model gives NEOM a 49% probability of winning, with Al-Hazm at 22% and the draw at 29%. NEOM's superior attacking and defensive rates, especially away from home, make them favourites.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
The probability for both teams to score is 47%, with the 'no' side slightly favoured at 53%. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five, and Al-Hazm's attack has struggled at home.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
The model estimates a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams' matches going over that mark in just 43% of their games this season. A moderate goal total is most likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Hazm vs NEOM: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.