Almeria vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Almeria
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Almeria Win
Match Result
7.2/10Almería Edge Valladolid in Hard-Fought Segunda División Clash
Almería secured a vital 1-0 victory over Valladolid at the UD Almería Stadium, capping a tense encounter that saw the hosts make their attacking dominance count. Despite trailing in possession with 46%, Almería peppered the Valladolid goal with 25 shots, 9 of which were on target, ultimately breaking the deadlock in the 57th minute. Valladolid, despite enjoying more of the ball (54% possession), struggled to convert their control into clear-cut chances, managing only 8 shots and 4 on target. The match was fiercely contested, with both sides picking up multiple bookings—Almería receiving 2 yellow cards and Valladolid 4. While Valladolid pressed for an equalizer, Almería’s defensive organization and the heroics of goalkeeper Andrés Fernández ensured the three points stayed in Andalusia.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
57' — Goal
Miguel de la Fuente scores for Almería after sustained pressure, breaking the deadlock.
67' — Yellow Card
Valladolid’s fourth yellow card as frustrations mount chasing the game.
75' — Save
Andrés Fernández denies Valladolid with a crucial stop to preserve Almería’s lead.
84' — Substitution
Almería reinforce midfield to protect their slender advantage.
Almeria
Almería produced a disciplined and energetic display, combining defensive solidity with attacking intent. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions, and they created a barrage of opportunities, registering 25 shots and 9 on target. The midfield duo of Stefan Džodić and Dion Lopy provided balance, while the attacking trio behind Miguel de la Fuente kept Valladolid’s defense on their toes. The only goal of the match came after sustained pressure early in the second half. Despite conceding more possession, Almería’s direct approach and willingness to shoot paid dividends. They managed the game well after taking the lead, absorbing Valladolid’s late pressure and seeing out the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid controlled possession for much of the match, operating in a 4-4-2 system that emphasized midfield control and wide play. However, their inability to translate possession into genuine scoring threats proved costly. With just 8 shots and 4 on target, Valladolid rarely tested Andrés Fernández, and their attacking duo of Angel Carvajal and Juanmi Latasa found themselves isolated for long stretches. Defensively, Valladolid were organized but occasionally overrun by Almería’s direct attacks. Four yellow cards highlighted their struggle to cope with the hosts’ pace and movement, and ultimately, they could not find a breakthrough despite a late push.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Almería’s 4-2-3-1 formation provided them with both defensive cover and attacking flexibility, allowing their wide players to push forward and support Miguel de la Fuente. Their willingness to shoot from various positions resulted in a high shot count, and their midfielders pressed aggressively, disrupting Valladolid’s rhythm. Valladolid’s 4-4-2 sought to control the ball, but their lack of penetration in the final third was evident. The double pivot in midfield kept possession ticking, but the front two were often isolated. As the game wore on, Valladolid pushed more men forward, but Almería’s tactical substitutions and compact defensive shape saw them through.
Turning Point
Miguel de la Fuente’s goal in the 57th minute shifted the momentum decisively in Almería’s favor, forcing Valladolid to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Miguel de la Fuente
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with energy and purpose throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Almeria vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Almeria vs Valladolid?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Almeria vs Valladolid(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Almeria Win
Almeria have a strong home record (14W in 20), a much better recent form and attacking output, and face a Valladolid side with poor away form and a negative goal difference. The model assigns clear edge to the home side.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Almeria's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 72.5% of games, and their last 5 average 4 goals per game combined. Valladolid's defense is leaky away (35 conceded in 20), so goal expectation is high.
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BTTS: Yes
Almeria have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 5, and BTTS has landed in 4 of those games. Valladolid have scored in 4 of their last 5 despite poor results, so both teams scoring is likely.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Almeria vs Valladolid Prediction
Almeria enter this clash as clear favorites, boasting one of the league's best home records and a potent attack that has delivered almost 2 goals per game this season. Valladolid, by contrast, have struggled for consistency, especially away from home, where their defense has been porous. Expect Almeria to control the match and create more chances, but with both teams vulnerable at the back, goals at both ends are likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Almeria 3W in last 5, Valladolid 2W 3L in last 5.
- →Head-to-head favors Valladolid historically, but recent momentum is with Almeria.
Attack
- →Almeria's strong home form: 14 wins, 51 goals scored in 20 home matches.
- →Almeria's high-scoring matches: 72.5% over 2.5 goals this season.
Defence
- →Valladolid's poor away record: 11 losses, 35 goals conceded in 20 away games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
🚩 Almeria vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Almeria and 4.3 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Almeria and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Almeria vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Almerialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolidlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almeria come into this match with three wins in their last five, including high-scoring victories and a strong attacking output (2.4 goals per game). Valladolid, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses in their last five and have struggled defensively, particularly away from home, conceding four to Racing Santander recently.
Almeria vs Valladolid — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
What History Says: Almeria vs Valladolid
Historically, Valladolid have been the more successful side in this matchup, winning five of the last ten meetings. However, the last time these teams met at Almeria, the match ended in a draw, and Almeria's last home win came in 2021. Scorelines have often featured at least two goals, with both teams finding the net in several recent meetings.
Almeria vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Almeria wins
4
Draws
4
Valladolid wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Almeria vs Valladolid
With bookmaker odds missing, it's not possible to identify explicit value edges. However, the model's strong preference for Almeria and over 2.5 goals suggests these would be the primary markets to watch for value once odds are available. If the market underestimates Almeria's home strength or the likelihood of a high-scoring game, there could be betting value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Almeria vs Valladolid
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats missing for Valladolid, reducing confidence in away team metrics.
- ⚠️Valladolid's season averages are incomplete, increasing model uncertainty for their attack/defense.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Almeria vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.