Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Arka Gdynia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.33(+18% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.33
Both teams have high over 2.5% rates (Arka 60.7%, Jagiellonia 64.3%), and Arka's defence is leaky (1.68 conceded per game). Odds for over 2.5 are much higher than model probability, giving strong value.
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BTTS: Yes@ 4
Jagiellonia have seen BTTS in 4 of last 5, Arka's home attack is decent (1.57 scored/game at home). Odds for BTTS yes are much higher than model probability, offering value.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Prediction
Jagiellonia travel to Arka Gdynia as strong favourites, sitting 3rd in the table and unbeaten in the last five H2H meetings (all wins). Arka's home record is impressive (8W, 5D, 1L), but their overall defensive record is poor, and they are in the relegation zone. Jagiellonia's away form is solid, and they boast a much stronger attack. Expect Jagiellonia to control possession and create more chances, but Arka's home resilience and motivation in a relegation fight could see them score. The game may be cagey early, but goals are likely in the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Arka DWLDW, Jagiellonia DDLWL.
Attack
- →Arka Gdynia are 16th but have a strong home record (8-5-1), scoring 22 in 14 home games.
Defence
- →Jagiellonia's away record is solid (4-7-3), and they average 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per away game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Jagiellonia have won all last 5 H2H meetings, including a 4-0 earlier this season.
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal percentages (Arka 60.7%, Jagiellonia 64.3%).
🚩 Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Arka Gdynia and 4.8 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Arka Gdynialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
0
Arka Gdynia wins
0
Draws
5
Jagiellonia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners, etc.) missing for several recent games, reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest a very low-scoring game, which is not fully supported by the teams' season stats.
- ⚠️Sample size for H2H is limited to 5 matches, but all are one-sided.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.