Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Jagiellonia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Wisla Plock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock: Match Preview
Jagiellonia enter this fixture on the back of three losses in their last four league matches, with defensive issues evident—nine goals conceded in their last five, and only one clean sheet in that period. Wisla Plock, sitting just one point behind in the table, have shown more resilience recently with a form string of LWWWD and two wins in their last three league outings, including a 2-0 away win at Zaglebie Lubin.
The matchup is shaped by leaky defences on both sides: Jagiellonia's home games average 2.8 goals (5 scored, 9 conceded in 5), while Wisla Plock's away matches see an even higher 3.0 goals per game (6 scored, 12 conceded in 6). Both teams have produced over 2.5 goals in the majority of their league fixtures—60% for Jagiellonia, 55.6% for Wisla Plock—while their last five averages (2.0 and 1.8 goals scored per game, respectively) suggest neither attack is blunt. Set-piece threat is limited, with both sides averaging under 4 corners per match in the last five.
The model expects a moderately open match, with Wisla Plock's recent attacking uptick and Jagiellonia's defensive frailty tipping the balance slightly in favour of the visitors. The most probable scenario is a narrow away win in a game with multiple goals, as both teams' season-long rates and recent head-to-heads point towards a 1-2 or 1-3 outcome.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock that most previews miss.
- 1Jagiellonia have failed to keep a clean sheet in 90% of their league matches this season.
- 2Wisla Plock's away matches average 2.0 goals conceded per game, the third-worst in the division.
- 3Six of the last ten head-to-heads have seen both teams score, with only one goalless draw since 2020.
Who do you think wins: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Wisla Plock Win
Wisla Plock's away scoring rate (1.0 goals per game) is modest, but Jagiellonia's home defensive record (9 conceded in 5) is among the weakest in the league, and the away side's recent form string (LWWWD) is notably stronger than the hosts' (LWLLW).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have over 2.5 goals in more than half their league matches (Jagiellonia 60%, Wisla Plock 55.6%), and their combined season average is 2.89 goals per game.
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BTTS: Yes
Each side has failed to score just once in their last five, and both have shown defensive vulnerability with only one clean sheet apiece in that span.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Prediction
This is a mid-table fixture between two sides with negative goal differences but contrasting recent momentum. Jagiellonia's home record is poor (2 wins, 3 losses, 5 scored, 9 conceded), while Wisla Plock have been inconsistent on the road but showed attacking improvement in their last five. The statistical profile points to a higher-than-average goal environment, with both teams averaging well above 2.5 total goals per game and defensive frailty on display.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Jagiellonia have conceded 9 goals in 5 home league matches (1.8 per game).
- →Wisla Plock's away defence is leaky, with 12 conceded in 6 away matches.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in the majority of their league games.
🚩 Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Jagiellonia and 4.8 for Wisla Plock, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
How Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wisla Plocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonia's recent form is poor, with three losses in their last four league matches and a home record of just two wins from five. Wisla Plock, by contrast, have taken seven points from their last four league games and have been more consistent in attack, averaging 1.8 goals scored in their last five across all competitions.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock have had the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning four of the last ten meetings and taking a 2-1 victory in Bialystok earlier this year. Both teams have found the net regularly in this fixture, with six of the last ten producing goals for each side.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Jagiellonia wins
3
Draws
4
Wisla Plock wins
Things to Watch: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be precisely calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form includes friendlies, which may distort short-term averages.
- ⚠️Neither side has a clear home or away advantage; high draw probability reflects this.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Jagiellonia 1–2 Wisla PlockThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Wisla Plock, driven primarily by Jagiellonia's porous home defence (1.8 goals conceded per game) and the visitors' recent uptick in attacking output. The greatest risk to this forecast is the high draw probability, as both teams have shown inconsistency and neither side dominates home or away.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock: Common Questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock are given a 40% chance to win, compared to 28% for Jagiellonia and 32% for the draw. The away side's stronger recent form and Jagiellonia's defensive record at home underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
There is a 60% probability of both teams scoring, as both sides have only failed to score once in their last five and neither defence has been reliable.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The model assigns a 62% probability to over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' season rates (Jagiellonia 60%, Wisla Plock 55.6%) and their average goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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