Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Arka Gdynia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Nieciecza
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4(+31% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 4
Neither team is defensively solid (Arka 21.9% and Nieciecza 9.3% clean sheet rates), and both have 3/5 BTTS in their last five. While neither attack is prolific recently, the odds (4.0) offer large value versus the model probability (0.56), and the H2H features frequent BTTS—6/9 meetings had both teams scoring.
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Over/Under: Over 2.5@ 3.75
Pre_computed model probability for over 2.5 is 0.54 vs. odds-implied 0.27, and both teams have >50% season over 2.5 (Arka 59%, Nieciecza 53%). H2H history also supports a higher goal count.
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Over/Under: Over 1.5@ 1.83
The model gives 0.78 probability (implied odds 1.28). Both teams have high over 1.5 rates on the season, and despite weak recent attack, neither defense inspires confidence. Value is clear at this price.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Prediction
This is a high-stakes relegation clash, with Arka Gdynia (17th, 36 pts) hosting bottom side Nieciecza (18th, 28 pts). Both teams come in with very poor form: Arka are winless in five (DDLLD), and Nieciecza have lost four of their last five. Defensively, both have struggled—Arka have conceded 55 goals in 32 games (1.72/game), Nieciecza 61 (1.91/game), and clean sheets are rare. Despite the lack of recent goal output (both average 0.8 scored/game in last 5), both have season-long trends of high-scoring games (over 2.5 in 59% and 53% respectively). The H2H leans more toward open games with 7/9 meetings producing at least two goals and frequent BTTS. Motivation is maximal for both sides, but especially for Arka at home, where their form is markedly better (8W-6D-2L). Value exists in goals markets and BTTS.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form is poor for both: Arka DDLLD, Nieciecza LLWLL.
Attack
- →Both recent and historic data suggest value on goals markets despite low recent scoring.
Defence
- →Defensive issues: Arka 21.9% and Nieciecza 9.4% clean sheet rates.
Match Context
- →Both teams at the bottom of the table: direct relegation implications.
- →Arka's home record (8W-6D-2L) much better than overall; Nieciecza weak away (4W-3D-9L).
- →Last 5 H2Hs: 4/5 have had 2+ goals, 3/5 BTTS.
🚩 Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Arka Gdynia and 6 for Nieciecza, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Arka Gdynialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Niecieczalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Arka haven't won in five (DDLLD), scoring just 4 and conceding 10. However, their home record is solid overall (22 scored, 18 conceded in 16), and most poor games have been away. Nieciecza also come in with 4 losses in 5 and have the league's leakiest defence. Both teams fail to keep clean sheets and only occasionally blank in attack.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
Head-to-head is competitive with a lean to Nieciecza, but matches are almost always open. Last meeting finished 2-0 to Nieciecza at home, but in Gdynia last spring Arka won 2-1. 7/9 last meetings have had over 1.5 goals, 6/9 BTTS.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Arka Gdynia wins
2
Draws
5
Nieciecza wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
Best value is in the BTTS 'yes' and over goals markets, supported by generous odds and underlying data (high over 2.5 rates, regular BTTS, both teams' defensive issues), despite modest recent goal output.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
- ⚠️Both teams are desperately out of form, with low recent goal tallies.
- ⚠️This is a high-pressure match, which could either open up late or be cagey early.
- ⚠️Recent attacking stats (shots, SOT, xG) for Nieciecza are poor.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest defensive outlook (under favoured), but historical matchup and season stats see lots of goals.
- ⚠️Model probabilities rely on Poisson averages; caution if tactical approaches shift in a 'must-win' context.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.