AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
AS Marsa
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
CS Hammam-Lif
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif: Match Preview
AS Marsa come into this home fixture sitting 11th, with a modest return of 5 points from 5 matches but a notable defensive record: only 3 goals conceded and 3 clean sheets. Their only win came at home against ES Sahel, and they've yet to lose at the Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium. CS Hammam-Lif, 13th in the table, finally broke a four-match losing streak with a 1-0 win away to ES Sahel, but have managed just a single goal in five matches and have failed to score in all but one outing.
Statistically, this is among the lowest goal environments in the division: AS Marsa average 0.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Hammam-Lif's attack is even more anaemic at 0.2 scored per game. Both teams' matches have been overwhelmingly under 2.5 goals (Marsa 20%, Hammam-Lif 0%), and neither side has seen more than two total goals in any of their last four matches. Marsa's home defence (0 goals conceded in two matches) faces a Hammam-Lif away attack with just one goal in three trips, suggesting clear advantage to the hosts in terms of defensive solidity.
The model projects a tight, low-scoring contest, with Marsa's superior defensive numbers and home advantage tipping the balance. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win, most plausibly by a 1-0 scoreline, though a goalless draw is also well in play given both sides' struggles to create clear chances. The main risk to this scenario is an early goal forcing the game open, but the underlying rates point strongly to a cagey affair.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif that most previews miss.
- 1CS Hammam-Lif have failed to score in 4 of their 5 league matches this season.
- 2AS Marsa's home matches have produced just 1 goal in total (1-0 win, 0-0 draw).
- 3Neither team has seen both teams score in any of their last 5 matches.
Who do you think wins: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have combined for just 3 goals scored in 10 matches this season, with AS Marsa's over 2.5 goals rate at 20% and CS Hammam-Lif at 0%.
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Correct Score: 1–0
AS Marsa average 0.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Hammam-Lif have scored only once all season; the 1-0 is the most probable win scenario.
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BTTS: No
AS Marsa have kept 3 clean sheets in 5, Hammam-Lif have failed to score in 4 of 5; BTTS has landed in just 1 of the last 10 combined matches.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Prediction
AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif enter this fixture with two of the league's lowest-scoring records, both averaging under 0.5 goals per game and prioritising defensive organisation over attacking risk. The home side's unbeaten home record (1 win, 1 draw, 0 conceded) contrasts with Hammam-Lif's solitary away win, which came despite scoring just once on their travels. This is a matchup defined by attacking bluntness and disciplined defending, reflected in the league positions and recent form lines.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AS Marsa have conceded just 3 goals in 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.
Match Context
- →CS Hammam-Lif have scored only 1 goal in 5 matches and failed to score in 4 straight before their last outing.
- →Neither team has seen a match go over 2.5 goals except once (AS Marsa's 1-2 loss to ES Tunis).
How AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Marsalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
CS Hammam-Liflast 5 matchesOccasional threat
AS Marsa have built their early-season platform on defence, conceding only 3 times and keeping 3 clean sheets in 5 matches, though their attack has been equally blunt with just 2 goals scored. CS Hammam-Lif have endured a torrid start, losing four straight before finally winning at ES Sahel, but their attack remains the league's least productive with just 1 goal scored all season.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
What History Says: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
The last two meetings between these sides both ended level (1-1 and 0-0), with neither able to establish superiority or find attacking fluency. Both matches were played in Ligue 2 and fit the current pattern of low-scoring, tightly-contested encounters.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
AS Marsa wins
2
Draws
0
CS Hammam-Lif wins
Things to Watch: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data available for either side, limiting the ability to model underlying attacking threat.
- ⚠️Small sample size (5 matches) means goal rates could be distorted by early-season variance.
- ⚠️Both teams have changed divisions recently, so head-to-head data is limited and from Ligue 2.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AS Marsa 1–0 CS Hammam-LifThe model predicts a 1-0 win for AS Marsa, driven by their 60% clean sheet rate and Hammam-Lif's league-worst scoring record. The strongest data point is Hammam-Lif's four matches without scoring; the likeliest way this goes wrong is if Marsa's attack fails to break through, resulting in a 0-0 stalemate.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif: Common Questions
Who will win AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif?
AS Marsa are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 18% for CS Hammam-Lif and a 38% chance of a draw. The home side's defensive record and Hammam-Lif's poor attack underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 18%, with 'No' landing in 82% of the model's simulations. This reflects that Hammam-Lif have failed to score in 4 of 5, and Marsa have kept 3 clean sheets.
How likely is under 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is highly probable at 87%, as both teams average less than 1 goal per game and only 1 of their 10 combined matches this season has gone over 2.5.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.