US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
US Ben Guerdane
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Stade Tunisien
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien: Match Preview
US Ben Guerdane enter this fixture unbeaten after five rounds, sitting third with 11 points and a 2-1-0 home record. Their last five matches have produced three wins and two draws, with only one clean sheet but goals in every game, highlighting a consistent—if not spectacular—attack. Stade Tunisien, ninth but with a game in hand, have been effective travellers with two away wins (6:4 goal difference) and have scored in every outing this campaign.
The statistical matchup is balanced: Ben Guerdane average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while Stade Tunisien post 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have seen four of their last five matches finish with both teams scoring, and H2H history is dominated by stalemates—six draws in the last ten, five of which were 1-1 or 0-0. First-half goals are less common, with only two for Stade Tunisien in their last five, suggesting a cagey opening.
The model projects a low-scoring contest, with under 2.5 goals (0.57 probability) and a draw (0.38) both favoured. Both teams' consistent scoring records and the absence of injuries point to a 1-1 outcome, with neither side likely to seize control but both capable of finding the net.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien that most previews miss.
- 1US Ben Guerdane have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five, but have not failed to score in any match this season.
- 2Stade Tunisien's away matches average 3.33 total goals (6 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games), above the league median.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings ended in draws, and five finished with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien?
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Where the Model Sees Value: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: US Ben Guerdane Win
Ben Guerdane have not lost this season (W3 D2), boast a 2-1-0 home record, and face a Stade Tunisien side with only moderate away numbers (2-0-1, 6:4 GF:GA), but the high draw probability (0.38) and six draws in the last ten H2H meetings suggest limited outright value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average under 2 goals conceded per game, and the H2H history shows five 0-0 or 1-1 draws in the last ten, supporting the model's 0.57 probability for under 2.5.
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BTTS: Yes
Recent form shows both sides have scored in four of their last five matches, and neither has failed to score in that span, supporting a slight BTTS lean at 0.52.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Prediction
A statistical deadlock shapes this fixture: US Ben Guerdane's unbeaten start and home solidity meet Stade Tunisien's efficient away attack, with both teams displaying similar scoring and concession rates. The league table reflects this balance, with Ben Guerdane third (11 points, 1.8 scored/1.2 conceded per game) and Stade Tunisien ninth but strong on the road (2 away wins, 6:4 goal difference). The historical head-to-head is dominated by draws, and both sides have shown a tendency to keep games tight, especially in the first half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Six of the last ten H2Hs have ended in draws, with five finishing 1-1 or 0-0.
Match Context
- →Ben Guerdane have not lost in five (W3 D2), including two home wins and a draw.
- →Stade Tunisien have scored in every match this season and average 2.0 goals per away game.
How US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
US Ben Guerdanelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stade Tunisienlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
US Ben Guerdane carry momentum from a seven-game unbeaten run (W3 D2 this season), with two consecutive home wins. Stade Tunisien have won back-to-back matches, both away, and have scored in every game, but have only one clean sheet in their last five. Both sides show consistent attacking output and resilience.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
Six of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended in draws, with five finishing either 1-1 or 0-0. Neither side has dominated the fixture, and recent encounters have been low-scoring and closely contested.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
US Ben Guerdane wins
6
Draws
2
Stade Tunisien wins
Things to Watch: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Limited shot, possession, and set piece data restricts deeper tactical analysis.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' season records (5 and 4 matches respectively) increases variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
US Ben Guerdane 1–1 Stade TunisienThe numbers point to a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, underpinned by both teams' near-identical scoring/conceding rates and a H2H record featuring six draws in ten. The main risk is either attack outperforming its underlying rate—especially Stade Tunisien's away scoring—but the distribution of results and early-season data both support a statistical stalemate.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien: Common Questions
Who will win US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien?
The model gives US Ben Guerdane a 33% chance to win, Stade Tunisien 29%, and a draw 38%. Both teams are in good form and the H2H record is draw-heavy, so the most likely result is a stalemate.
Will both teams score in US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien?
There is a 52% probability both teams score, supported by four BTTS results in each side's last five matches and neither failing to score this season.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 57% probability, with five of the last ten H2Hs finishing 1-1 or 0-0 and both teams averaging just under 2 goals conceded per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.