Austria vs Guatemala Prediction
Austria Heavy Favorites Against Guatemala in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Austria
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Guatemala
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.22
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.55
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 3-0 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Austria vs Guatemala Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Austria vs Guatemala?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Austria vs Guatemala Prediction
Austria enter this friendly at the Rose Bowl as commanding favorites over Guatemala, with the model giving them a 78% chance of victory and projecting a 2-0 scoreline. The gulf in quality is clear: Austria's Elo rating of 1827 (23rd in the world) dwarfs Guatemala's 1515 (80th), and their recent form has been impressive, with a strong attack led by Marko Arnautović and Christoph Baumgartner. Guatemala, meanwhile, face a daunting task. Their recent results have been poor, and the analytics lack meaningful attacking data for their squad. The model expects Austria to dominate both possession and chances, with a final expected goals line of 2.57 for Austria versus just 0.67 for Guatemala after factoring in recent momentum.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Austria's attack factor (1.32) and finishing (1.2) outclass Guatemala's baseline metrics
- →Recent form momentum boosts Austria's attack (1.18x) and suppresses Guatemala's (0.87x)
Match Context
- →Austria's Elo rating is 312 points higher than Guatemala's (1827 vs 1515)
- →Model's final expected goals: Austria 2.57, Guatemala 0.67
- →Top correct score probabilities: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.92 · 0.68
From xG
1.72 · 1.27
Blended
2.56 · 0.67
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Austria attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Guatemala's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Guatemala's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Austria goals, columns = Guatemala goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.9%
3-0
11.1%
1-0
10.1%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with an Elo baseline, where Austria's 312-point advantage translates to a very strong expected score of 0.858 for Austria and just 0.142 for Guatemala. From there, it layers in attack and defense factors: Austria's attack is rated at 1.32 (with strong finishing and chance quality), while Guatemala's is at the baseline, reflecting a lack of recent data and attacking output. Recent-form momentum is then applied, with Austria's attack getting an 18% boost and their defense showing solidity (leak factor 0.85), while Guatemala's attack is further suppressed (0.87x) and their defense weakened (leak 1.18x). These adjustments push Austria's expected goals up to 2.57 and Guatemala's down to 0.67. Finally, a Poisson model simulates exact scorelines, resulting in a 78% win probability for Austria and making a 2-0 or 3-0 victory the most likely outcomes.
Where the Model Sees Value: Austria vs Guatemala(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.22
Model probability (62.6%) is much higher than implied odds (31%), offering strong positive expected value.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Austria vs Guatemala
With Austria's win probability at 78% and bookmaker odds at 1.20, there is no significant value on the home win. However, the model gives 'Austria to win to nil' a strong chance, and the 'BTTS: No' market is priced at 1.10, which is very short. The best value appears on 'Over 2.5 goals' at odds of 3.22, given the model's 62.6% probability for this outcome, suggesting a notable edge over the market.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Austria vs Guatemala Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Austrialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Guatemalalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Austria are in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five with three consecutive wins and an average of two goals scored per match. Their defense has also been solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game over that stretch. Guatemala, on the other hand, have lost four of their last five, scoring only 0.8 goals per game and conceding three on average. However, international form data can be sparse and should be interpreted with some caution.
Austria vs Guatemala — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Austria vs Guatemala Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Austria and 4 for Guatemala, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 45% · Over 10.5: 21%.
What History Says: Austria vs Guatemala
There is no recent head-to-head history between Austria and Guatemala, as the two sides rarely meet in international competition. This lack of direct precedent means the model relies heavily on overall team quality and recent form.
Austria vs Guatemala Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Austria wins
1
Draws
0
Guatemala wins
Things to Watch: Austria vs Guatemala
- ⚠️International friendlies can feature squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Guatemala's data is sparse, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Odds on main markets (Austria win, BTTS No) are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Austria vs Guatemala: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 10 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.