Bahrain vs Yemen Prediction
Bahrain vs Yemen: Model Favors Bahrain, but Recent Form and H2H Upsets Loom
International Friendly · World
Bahrain
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Yemen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bahrain vs Yemen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Bahrain vs Yemen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Bahrain vs Yemen Prediction
Bahrain enter this friendly with a commanding Elo advantage of +267 points over Yemen (1418 vs 1151), positioning them as clear favourites on paper. However, the model's probabilities reflect a more nuanced outlook, granting Bahrain just a 44% chance of victory, with Yemen's win probability at 31% and the draw at 24%. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 2-1 in Bahrain's favour, but the most likely single result is actually a 1-1 draw (11% probability). Recent results and momentum adjustments have played a significant role in tempering Bahrain's edge. Despite their higher rating, Bahrain's attack has been muted by a 0.919 momentum multiplier, reflecting a string of poor performances (just one win in their last five and four consecutive losses). Yemen, conversely, benefit from a hot streak: their attack multiplier sits at 1.135, and they've taken 9 points from their last five matches. This has elevated Yemen's expected goals (λ) to 1.31, not far behind Bahrain's 1.61 after all adjustments.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Momentum adjustments penalise Bahrain's attack (0.919) and boost Yemen's (1.135) based on recent form.
Defence
- →Both teams to score is favoured (59% probability), reflecting defensive vulnerabilities.
Match Context
- →Bahrain's Elo rating is 267 points higher than Yemen's (1418 vs 1151), giving them a strong baseline advantage.
- →The model's final expected goals are close: Bahrain 1.61, Yemen 1.31.
- →Yemen have won their last two head-to-heads against Bahrain, both away from home.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.83 · 0.77
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.61 · 1.31
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Bahrain's cold attack trims their goals ×0.92; Bahrain's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Yemen attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14; Yemen's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Bahrain goals, columns = Yemen goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.7%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bahrain vs Yemen that most previews miss.
- 1Yemen's attack momentum multiplier of 1.135 is the highest in this fixture, reflecting 9 points from their last 5 games.
- 2The last two head-to-heads in Bahrain have both been won by Yemen, 5-2 and 2-1.
- 3Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches, aligning with the model's 59% BTTS probability.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, where Bahrain's 267-point advantage over Yemen translates to an 82% expected score share before other factors are considered. From there, it layers in attacking and defensive strengths, but with limited recent data for both teams, these are set to neutral. The next critical step is momentum: Bahrain's attack has underperformed in recent matches, so their expected goals are reduced by a 0.919 multiplier, while Yemen's recent scoring surge lifts theirs by 1.135. These adjustments yield final expected goal values of 1.61 for Bahrain and 1.31 for Yemen. The model then applies a Poisson distribution to these scoring rates, generating probabilities for all possible scorelines. This process results in a 44% win probability for Bahrain, 31% for Yemen, and a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely exact result is 1-1 (11%), with 2-1 to Bahrain (9%) and 1-0 to Bahrain (9%) close behind.
More Friendlies Predictions
Bahrain vs Yemen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bahrainlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Yemenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahrain's recent form is poor, with four straight losses and just one win in their last five matches, scoring only 1 goal per game while conceding 2.6. Yemen, by contrast, have won three of their last five, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Both sides have struggled for clean sheets, but Yemen's momentum is notably positive.
Bahrain vs Yemen — Last 1 Matches
What History Says: Bahrain vs Yemen
In seven previous meetings, Bahrain have won four and Yemen two, with one draw. However, Yemen have won the last two encounters in Bahrain, including a remarkable 5-2 victory in September 2026. The historical record favours Bahrain overall, but recent head-to-heads suggest a shift in momentum.
Bahrain vs Yemen Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Bahrain wins
1
Draws
2
Yemen wins
Things to Watch: Bahrain vs Yemen
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at this time, so value betting opportunities cannot be assessed.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and motivation.
- ⚠️Recent form and head-to-head trends suggest higher variance than the Elo gap alone would imply.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bahrain 2–1 YemenThe model narrowly backs Bahrain for a 2-1 win, but the single strongest number is Bahrain's 44% win probability—far from overwhelming for a side with such a large Elo gap. Yemen's recent form and head-to-head success, especially away from home, are significant wildcards. The most plausible way the prediction goes wrong is if Yemen's attacking momentum and psychological edge from recent upsets carry them to another surprise result.
Bahrain vs Yemen: Common Questions
Who will win Bahrain vs Yemen?
The model gives Bahrain a 44% chance of winning, Yemen a 31% chance, and a draw 24%. The predicted scoreline is 2-1 to Bahrain, but the most likely exact result is 1-1.
Will both teams score in Bahrain vs Yemen?
Yes, the model estimates a 58% probability that both teams will score, reflecting recent defensive struggles on both sides.
How have Bahrain and Yemen performed against each other recently?
Yemen have won the last two meetings away to Bahrain (5-2 and 2-1), despite being lower ranked overall. Bahrain's last home win over Yemen was in 2016.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bahrain vs Yemen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.