Belarus vs Albania Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Belarus
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Albania
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.67(+27% edge)
Recommended Bets: Belarus vs Albania
Belarus vs Albania: Match Preview
Belarus come into this match on the back of a three-game winning streak, having taken maximum points from San Marino (twice) and Finland, and sit second in the group with 10 points from five matches. Their defensive record is the standout feature: just two goals conceded and four clean sheets, including both home fixtures. Albania, group leaders with 12 points, have been more prolific, scoring in every game and averaging two goals per match. Their only defeat came away to Finland, but otherwise their attack has been consistent, and they have already beaten Belarus 2-0 in the reverse fixture.
The statistical matchup is defined by Belarus’s defensive discipline against Albania’s high shot volume and attacking efficiency. Belarus’s matches average just 1.8 goals, with under 2.5 landing in 80% of their games, while Albania’s away matches are more open but somewhat skewed by a 3-0 win over San Marino. Albania generate 18.4 shots and 5.8 on target per game, compared to Belarus’s 11.0 and 3.8, but the hosts have not conceded at home this campaign. Both sides are disciplined defensively, and Belarus have failed to score in both games against higher-ranked opposition.
The model expects a low-scoring contest, with Albania’s superior attacking metrics and perfect head-to-head record giving them a narrow edge. Belarus’s defensive structure should keep the game tight, but Albania’s consistent shot creation and scoring rate make a 1-0 away win the likeliest outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 0.60
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-0 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Belarus vs Albania Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Belarus vs Albania that most previews miss.
- 1Belarus have kept four clean sheets in their last five Nations League matches, conceding only to Albania and Finland.
- 2All three historical H2H meetings have ended in Albania wins, with Belarus scoring just twice across those fixtures.
- 3Albania’s matches have seen the opening goal inside the first 35 minutes in four of their last five games.
Who do you think wins: Belarus vs Albania?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Belarus vs Albania(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.71
Both teams have failed to score in 8 of their combined 10 Nations League matches this campaign, with Belarus seeing BTTS in 0 of their last 5 and Albania in only 2 of 5. The model gives 'no' a 76% probability, well above the 59.9% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.57
Belarus matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and their defence has conceded just 0.4 per game. The model estimates a 71% chance of under, compared to 63.7% implied by the odds.
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More UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Case For This Belarus vs Albania Prediction
This fixture pits the group’s most robust defence against the most consistent attack, with Belarus conceding just twice in five matches (0.4 per game) and Albania averaging two goals scored per outing. The home side have kept clean sheets in both home matches and are on a three-game winning run, but all victories have come against the group’s weakest sides. Albania, meanwhile, lead the group and have scored in every match, including a 2-0 win over Belarus in September. Statistically, this is a clash of styles: Belarus’s matches average 1.8 goals and have seen under 2.5 in 80% of games, while Albania’s away games average 3.0 but are inflated by a 3-0 win over San Marino. Belarus’s attack is blunt against top-half opposition, failing to score in both meetings with Albania and Finland away. Albania’s shot volume (18.4 per game, 5.8 on target) dwarfs Belarus’s (11.0, 3.8), but the hosts’ defensive structure at home has yet to be breached. The model expects a low-scoring contest, with Albania’s superior attacking metrics and perfect H2H record (three wins from three, two clean sheets) tipping the balance. Belarus’s defensive discipline should keep it tight, but Albania’s edge in shot creation and scoring rate makes a narrow away win the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Belarus have conceded just 2 goals in 5 matches (0.4 per game), with 4 clean sheets.
- →Albania are averaging 2.0 goals scored per game, with 10 in 5 matches and only 3 conceded.
Match Context
- →All three historical H2H meetings have been won by Albania, with Belarus failing to score in two.
🚩 Belarus vs Albania Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Belarus and 5.4 for Albania, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Belarus and Albania Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Belarus vs Albania Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Belaruslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Albanialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Belarus are on a three-match winning run, bolstered by four clean sheets in five, but their only defeat came against Albania in September. Albania have won four of five, scoring in every match, and their only slip was a narrow loss away to Finland. Both sides bring momentum, but Albania’s attack has been more consistent against stronger opposition.
Belarus vs Albania — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +80% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Belarus vs Albania
Albania have dominated the head-to-head, winning all three meetings since 2020, including a 2-0 victory earlier in this Nations League campaign. Belarus have failed to score in two of those three fixtures, and none of the matches have ended in a draw.
Belarus vs Albania Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
Belarus wins
0
Draws
3
Albania wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Belarus vs Albania
The model identifies the most significant value in the 'both teams to score: no' market, with a 27% positive edge over the odds. Under 2.5 goals also shows a notable edge at 11%. The 1X2 market is broadly in line with the bookmakers, so the best statistical value lies in low-goals and defensive outcomes.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Belarus vs Albania
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams’ defensive and attacking rates in this Nations League cycle.
- ⚠️Belarus’s home defensive record is based on matches against San Marino and Finland, not a side of Albania’s attacking calibre.
- ⚠️No injury or lineup news available for this fixture; late changes could impact defensive solidity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Belarus 0–1 AlbaniaThe model projects a 1-0 win for Albania, with the strongest data point being Belarus’s inability to score against top-half opposition and Albania’s perfect H2H record. The main risk is Belarus’s defensive record at home, which could frustrate Albania if the visitors struggle to convert their shot volume into goals.
Belarus vs Albania: Common Questions
Who will win Belarus vs Albania?
The model gives Albania a 53% probability of victory, with Belarus at 18% and the draw at 29%. Albania’s superior scoring rate and perfect head-to-head record tip the balance in their favour.
Will both teams score in Belarus vs Albania?
Both teams to score is rated just 24% likely, with 'no' at 76%. Belarus have seen BTTS in none of their last five, while Albania have kept three clean sheets in five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Belarus vs Albania?
Under 2.5 goals is modelled at 71% probability, compared to 63.7% implied by the odds. Belarus matches have gone under in 4 of 5, and their defence has been especially stingy at home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Belarus vs Albania: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.