Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction
Bolivia vs Paraguay: Model Favouritism for Paraguay in Friendly Clash at Audi Field
International Friendly · World
Bolivia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Paraguay
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction
Bolivia face a stern test against Paraguay in this international friendly at Audi Field, with the analytics model giving the edge to the higher-ranked Paraguayans. The Elo ratings show a significant gulf: Paraguay sit 35 places above Bolivia (1833 vs 1645), translating to a win probability of 54.3% for Paraguay compared to just 22.6% for Bolivia. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 in favour of Paraguay, reflecting the model's expectation of a low-scoring contest. Paraguay's attacking metrics are notably superior, with their top 11 players combining for 74 xG and 126 goals, while Bolivia's lack of recent data leaves their threat largely unquantified. Recent form gives neither side a major boost, but Paraguay's defensive suppression (0.8) and finishing (1.2) further tilt the balance. The most likely correct scores are 1-1 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%), and 1-2 (9.8%), underlining the model's expectation of a tight encounter.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Paraguay's attack boosted by strong finishing (1.2) and chance quality (1.14).
Defence
- →Bolivia's recent form: three straight defeats, conceding 2.2 goals/game in last five.
- →Paraguay's defence suppresses opponents to 0.8 of their expected output.
Match Context
- →Elo rating gap of 188 points in Paraguay's favour (1833 vs 1645).
- →Model's final expected goals: Bolivia 1.08, Paraguay 1.80.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.92 · 1.68
From xG
1.63 · 1.41
Blended
1.08 · 1.80
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Bolivia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Bolivia goals, columns = Paraguay goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.9%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bolivia vs Paraguay that most previews miss.
- 1Paraguay's top scorer, A. Arce, has netted 82 goals from 32.5 xG, an exceptional finishing record.
- 2Bolivia have failed to score in two of their last five matches and kept just one clean sheet.
- 3The most probable correct score is 1-1 (10.9%), but 0-1 Paraguay is nearly as likely (10.1%).
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with the Elo ratings, where Paraguay's 1833 towers over Bolivia's 1645, setting a baseline expected score of 0.253 for Bolivia and 0.747 for Paraguay. This Elo edge is then refined with attacking and defensive data: Paraguay's attack is rated at 1.085, bolstered by a finishing multiplier of 1.2 and high chance quality (1.14), while their defence suppresses opponents to just 0.8 of their usual output. Bolivia's attack and defence lack recent data, so the model applies neutral factors. Momentum adjustments, based on the last five matches, slightly dampen both sides' attacking expectations (attack momentum 0.973 for both), but Paraguay benefit from a defensive leak factor of 0.919, indicating recent solidity. These elements blend into final expected goals of 1.08 for Bolivia and 1.80 for Paraguay. The Poisson model then simulates the likely scorelines, with Paraguay winning 54.3% of the time, a draw at 23.1%, and Bolivia taking just 22.6%.
More Friendlies Predictions
Bolivia vs Paraguay Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolivialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Paraguaylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolivia's recent form is concerning, with three consecutive losses and an average of 2.2 goals conceded per game over their last five outings. They've managed just one clean sheet and failed to score twice, suggesting vulnerability at both ends. Paraguay, meanwhile, have shown more resilience, winning two of their last five and keeping three clean sheets, though their attack has also misfired on occasion.
Bolivia vs Paraguay — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
🚩 Bolivia vs Paraguay Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Bolivia and 3.2 for Paraguay, for an expected total of 7.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (75%). Over 8.5: 37% · Over 10.5: 16%.
What History Says: Bolivia vs Paraguay
The head-to-head record is relatively balanced: in seven previous meetings, Paraguay have won three, Bolivia two, and two have ended in draws. The most recent encounter ended 2-2 in La Paz during World Cup qualification, but Paraguay edged the last neutral-venue meeting 3-1 in Copa America. Both sides have found the net in four of the last six clashes.
Bolivia vs Paraguay Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
2
Bolivia wins
2
Draws
3
Paraguay wins
Things to Watch: Bolivia vs Paraguay
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at the time of writing, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Bolivia's lack of recent attacking data adds uncertainty to their true threat level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bolivia 0–1 ParaguayThe model predicts a 1-0 win for Paraguay, anchored by a 54.3% win probability and a final expected goals line of 1.80 to 1.08 in their favour. Paraguay's attacking depth and defensive suppression are decisive, but the most plausible way this goes wrong is if Bolivia, often unpredictable in friendlies, find a clinical moment or Paraguay's attack underperforms against a compact setup.
Bolivia vs Paraguay: Common Questions
Who will win Bolivia vs Paraguay?
The model gives Paraguay a 54.3% chance of victory, with Bolivia's win probability at 22.6% and a draw at 23.1%. Paraguay are clear favourites based on Elo and attacking metrics.
Will both teams score in Bolivia vs Paraguay?
The model assigns a 55.1% probability to both teams scoring (BTTS 'yes'), indicating a slight lean towards goals at both ends but with no overwhelming certainty.
What are the likely scorelines for Bolivia vs Paraguay?
The most probable correct scores are 1-1 (10.9%), 0-1 to Paraguay (10.1%), and 1-2 to Paraguay (9.8%), reflecting the model's expectation of a close, low-scoring match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bolivia vs Paraguay: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.