Burgos vs Almeria Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Almeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Almeria Win
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burgos vs Almeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Burgos vs Almeria(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Almeria Win
Almeria have the stronger attack (2.0 goals/game, 73% over 2.5 rate), are in better recent form (WWLWL), and have a high away scoring average. Burgos are solid at home but less prolific. Standings and H2H also edge to Almeria.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Almeria's matches are high-scoring (73% over 2.5 season, 2.4 conceded last 5), and both teams have 4/5 BTTS recently. Burgos' home defence is decent but their recent matches have seen goals at both ends.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5. Almeria are potent but leaky, while Burgos have failed to score in none of their last 5.
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The Case For This Burgos vs Almeria Prediction
This is a clash between a strong home side (Burgos) and a high-scoring, promotion-chasing Almeria. Burgos are defensively solid at home but have shown some vulnerability recently, while Almeria's attack is the best in the league but their defence is unreliable, especially away. Expect an open game with both sides likely to score, but Almeria's attacking edge and higher stakes in the promotion race give them the advantage.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Almeria have the highest goals scored in the league (74 in 37).
Defence
- →Burgos are strong at home: 9W, 7D, 3L, only 12 conceded in 19.
- →Almeria's away defence is weak: 30 conceded in 19 away.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams have 4/5 BTTS in recent games.
- →Recent H2H slightly favours Almeria (3 wins in last 5).
- →Almeria have more to play for (promotion race).
🚩 Burgos vs Almeria Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Burgos and 5 for Almeria, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Burgos and Almeria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burgos vs Almeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burgoslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Almerialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Burgos vs Almeria — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.97% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Burgos vs Almeria
Burgos vs Almeria Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Burgos wins
0
Draws
3
Almeria wins
Things to Watch: Burgos vs Almeria
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, lowering model confidence.
- ⚠️Segunda División is often low-scoring, but Almeria are an outlier.
- ⚠️Late-season motivation and rotation risks are possible but not visible in data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burgos vs Almeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.