Almeria vs Burgos Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Almeria
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Burgos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.8/10Late Surge Seals Almeria Comeback Win Over Burgos
Almeria staged a dramatic late turnaround to clinch a 2-1 victory over Burgos at the UD Almería Stadium, overturning a first-half deficit with two goals in the final quarter-hour. Despite dominating possession with 69% and peppering the Burgos goal with 25 shots (eight on target), the hosts found themselves trailing at the break after Burgos struck on the counter in the 40th minute. However, relentless pressure finally paid off as Almeria netted twice in quick succession, first in the 77th minute and again in the 84th, to secure all three points. Burgos, who set up in a compact 4-4-2, frustrated Almeria for much of the match and threatened on the break, managing four shots on target from nine attempts. But as the hosts turned the screw late on, Burgos' resistance faltered, and their hopes of holding out for a famous away win were dashed by Almeria's late onslaught.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Curro Sánchez finishes a swift counter to give Burgos a shock lead.
77' — Goal
Sergio Arribas levels for Almeria after sustained pressure.
84' — Goal
Thalys completes the comeback with a composed finish for Almeria.
60' — Yellow Card
Javi Muñoz (Almeria) booked for a tactical foul in midfield.
68' — Yellow Card
Oier Luengo (Burgos) shown yellow for time-wasting.
Almeria
Almeria controlled proceedings from the outset, dictating play with a commanding 69% possession and a barrage of 25 shots. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid attacking combinations, but they were initially frustrated by Burgos' disciplined defense and fell behind against the run of play. Undeterred, Almeria maintained their tempo and intensity, eventually breaking through with two late goals that reflected their overall dominance. The midfield duo of Mikel Vesga and Javi Muñoz provided the platform for sustained pressure, while the attacking trio behind Thalys were constant threats.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burgos
Burgos executed their counter-attacking game plan effectively for much of the match, absorbing waves of Almeria pressure and striking first in the 40th minute. Their 4-4-2 shape kept them organized defensively, and they managed to create several dangerous moments on the break. However, their inability to retain possession (just 31%) and withstand Almeria's relentless second-half assault ultimately saw them concede twice late on, leaving empty-handed despite a valiant effort.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Almeria's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the ball and control the tempo, with Vesga and Muñoz orchestrating play from deep and the attacking quartet interchanging fluidly. Their wide play and overlapping full-backs stretched Burgos, but the visitors' compact 4-4-2 shape initially limited clear-cut chances. Burgos focused on staying organized, breaking quickly through the flanks and targeting the space behind Almeria's advanced full-backs. As the match wore on and Burgos tired, Almeria introduced more attacking impetus through substitutions, increasing their presence in the box and eventually overwhelming the visitors' resistance. Set pieces and corners (eight for Almeria) were a consistent threat, but it was open-play persistence that finally broke Burgos down. The tactical shift to increase attacking numbers late on proved decisive for the hosts.
Turning Point
Sergio Arribas' equalizer in the 77th minute shifted momentum decisively, breaking Burgos' resolve and paving the way for Almeria's late winner.
Man of the Match
Sergio Arribas
His equalizing goal and creative influence inspired Almeria's comeback.
Almeria vs Burgos: Match Preview
Almeria enter the fixture in fifth place after three consecutive wins, including a 2-0 home victory over Celta de Vigo II and a 3-2 win against Cadiz. Their only setbacks this season have come away from home, while at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos they've claimed maximum points and scored eight times in three matches. Burgos sit just behind in sixth, unbeaten in their last four and coming off a 2-1 away win at Las Palmas, but their away attack has been less prolific, with just two goals scored in three away games.
Statistically, the match is shaped by Almeria's robust home attack (2.67 goals per game) against a Burgos defence that has conceded only twice in three away fixtures. Both sides average 1.67 goals per game over the season, but the underlying shot data is less explosive: Almeria generate 11.2 shots and 3.6 on target per match over the last five, while Burgos post 10.2 and 2.4, respectively. Both teams have shown periods of defensive solidity—Almeria with a 50% clean sheet rate, Burgos just 16.7%—and neither side has been consistently involved in high-scoring matches, with Almeria at 33% over 2.5 goals and Burgos at 67%.
The model projects a moderate tempo, with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable scenario is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 result the statistical mode given the convergence of their season-long scoring and concession rates, the H2H tendency towards low scores, and the absence of significant injury or suspension news. The game may hinge on set pieces or a moment of quality, but the underlying numbers point toward a balanced contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Almeria vs Burgos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Almeria vs Burgos that most previews miss.
- 1Almeria have scored exactly two goals in three of their last four home matches against Burgos.
- 2Burgos' away matches this season average just 1.33 total goals, the lowest among top-half sides.
- 3Across both teams' last five matches, first-half goals (7) outpace second-half goals (6), suggesting early scoring is slightly more likely.
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The Case For This Almeria vs Burgos Prediction
Almeria and Burgos both arrive in the top six, separated by a single point after six matches, with Almeria boasting a perfect home record and Burgos showing resilience away. Both sides have identical season scoring rates at 1.67 goals per game, but Almeria's home attack (8 goals in 3 games) is notably sharper than Burgos' away output (2 goals in 3 away). Defensively, Almeria's home record (2 conceded in 3) is marginally stronger than Burgos' away (also 2 conceded in 3), pointing to a balanced contest. The statistical profile suggests a moderate goal environment, with both teams-to-score and under 2.5 goals close to a coin flip. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the convergence of their season-long rates and the lack of major form or injury disruptions.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Almeria average 2.67 goals scored per home game, conceding 0.67, while Burgos average 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded away.
- →Almeria have a 50% clean sheet rate this season; Burgos just 16.7%, but both have failed to score twice in their last five.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in only 1 of Almeria's last 5 and 3 of Burgos' last 5, suggesting neither side is consistently open at the back.
🚩 Almeria vs Burgos Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Almeria and 4.8 for Burgos, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Almeria and Burgos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Almeria vs Burgos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Almerialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgoslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almeria have built momentum with three straight wins, all featuring clean sheets or multi-goal performances at home, pushing them into the top five. Burgos are unbeaten in four and have just claimed their first away win, but their away attack remains limited with only two goals in three matches. Both sides have shown defensive discipline, with Almeria's home form the standout trend.
Almeria vs Burgos — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Almeria vs Burgos
Almeria have dominated the recent home meetings, winning three of the last four at their ground, all by two-goal margins. Four of the last six encounters have ended with under 2.5 goals, and the most common scoreline is 2-0 to Almeria. The last meeting was a goalless draw in Burgos.
Almeria vs Burgos Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
Almeria wins
1
Draws
2
Burgos wins
Things to Watch: Almeria vs Burgos
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available at time of analysis, so value and recommended bets could not be computed.
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes (6 matches) limit confidence in rate stability.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data affecting likely lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Almeria 1–1 BurgosA 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, underpinned by both teams' identical season scoring rates (1.67 per game) and Almeria's strong but not overwhelming home defensive record. The main risk is Almeria's higher home goal output breaking through a Burgos side that has struggled for away goals, potentially tipping the balance toward a narrow home win.
Almeria vs Burgos: Common Questions
Who will win Almeria vs Burgos?
The model gives Almeria a 39% chance to win, the draw at 35%, and Burgos at 26%. Both teams have similar season scoring rates, but Almeria's perfect home record gives them a slight edge.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Burgos?
Both teams to score is rated at 52%, with Almeria keeping clean sheets in half their games and Burgos only once this season. The most probable scoreline is 1-1.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Almeria vs Burgos?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 56%, reflecting both teams' recent trend towards lower-scoring matches and their combined average of 2.17 total goals per game in home/away splits.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Almeria vs Burgos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.