Granada CF vs Cadiz Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Granada CF
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Cadiz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.1/10Granada Outclass Cádiz with Second-Half Surge at Nuevo Los Cármenes
Granada CF claimed a deserved 2-0 victory over Cádiz at Nuevo Los Cármenes, pulling away in the second half thanks to clinical finishing and disciplined defending. After a cagey first half, the hosts found their breakthrough shortly after the restart and doubled their lead midway through the second period, ultimately controlling proceedings with 54% possession and limiting Cádiz to just a single shot on target. Cádiz, despite showing some early promise and earning more corners (6 to Granada's 4), struggled to create clear chances against a well-organized Granada backline. The visitors' frustrations were compounded by two yellow cards and a lack of attacking cohesion, as Granada's midfield trio dictated the tempo and ensured the three points stayed in Andalusia.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
Key Moments
50' — Goal
Jorge Pascual scores to give Granada a 1-0 lead, shifting the momentum firmly in the hosts' favor.
67' — Goal
José Arnáiz doubles Granada's advantage, effectively sealing the win.
73' — Yellow Card
Cádiz pick up their second yellow, reflecting growing frustration.
Granada CF
Granada CF delivered a composed and effective performance, especially in the second half. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to control the midfield and transition quickly into attack, resulting in 11 total shots and 2 goals. The defense, marshaled by Manu Lama and Juan José Flores Castro, kept Cádiz at bay, conceding just one shot on target. The home side also managed to keep their discipline, receiving only one yellow card despite a physical contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cadiz
Cádiz struggled to impose themselves in Granada, with their 4-2-3-1 setup failing to create enough danger in the final third. The visitors managed just 8 shots and a solitary effort on target, despite a promising start and more corners. Defensive lapses after halftime proved costly, and while they matched Granada physically (13 fouls), their attacking play lacked cohesion and penetration.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Granada's 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield, with Gumbau and Rubén Alcaraz controlling possession and dictating play. The wingers stretched Cádiz's backline, creating space for Jorge Pascual to exploit. Defensively, Granada pressed high and forced Cádiz into mistakes, limiting their ability to build from the back. Cádiz's 4-2-3-1 setup initially provided some width and set-piece threat, but they struggled to link midfield and attack, often leaving V. Kopotun isolated up front. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as Granada's structure remained intact and effective.
Turning Point
Jorge Pascual's goal in the 50th minute broke the deadlock and shifted momentum decisively to Granada.
Man of the Match
Jorge Pascual
His opening goal and tireless movement up front set the tone for Granada's victory.
Granada CF vs Cadiz: Match Preview
Granada CF approach this fixture sitting mid-table with 11 points from eight matches, having scored and conceded 13 goals apiece. Their recent form is patchy, with a 3-2 away win at Real Sociedad II snapping a four-game winless run (WLLDL). Cadiz, meanwhile, are 19th with seven points, but come off a resounding 4-0 home win over Leganes after a five-game winless stretch. Both sides have struggled for consistency, and with Cadiz yet to win away, the motivation for points is high on both benches.
Statistically, these teams are close: Granada's home record (1W, 1D, 1L, 5GF, 4GA) is nearly matched by Cadiz's away (0W, 2D, 1L, 5GF, 6GA). Granada average 19.2 shots per game in their last five, but their defensive frailty is exposed by 2.4 goals conceded per game over that span. Cadiz's attack is less prolific in shot volume (12.6 per game last five), but their conversion is similar, and they've failed to score just once in their last five. Both teams' clean sheet rates sit at 25%, and BTTS has landed in four of Granada's last five and three of Cadiz's last five, supporting a moderate goal expectation.
The model projects a low-scoring, balanced contest, with a 1-1 draw the likeliest outcome. Neither side consistently asserts home or away dominance, and both tend to concede in the second half. The historical H2H pattern of draws and low margins further reinforces the probability of a tightly contested match where set pieces and discipline (both average over two cards per game) could tip the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Granada CF vs Cadiz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Granada CF vs Cadiz that most previews miss.
- 1Granada's last five matches have averaged 4.0 total goals, but their season-long over 2.5 goal rate is only 62.5%, suggesting recent volatility.
- 2Cadiz have scored in all three away matches this season, but have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road (6 conceded in 3).
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, five have ended level and only three have produced more than one goal for either side.
Who do you think wins: Granada CF vs Cadiz?
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The Case For This Granada CF vs Cadiz Prediction
Granada CF and Cadiz enter this fixture with nearly identical attacking rates but contrasting defensive trends, setting up a balanced contest. Granada's home record (1W, 1D, 1L, 5GF, 4GA) is mirrored by Cadiz's away output (0W, 2D, 1L, 5GF, 6GA), while both sides average just above 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game this season. The data points to a low-margin affair, with neither side consistently keeping clean sheets or dominating the shot count, and a high likelihood of the match being decided by fine details rather than sustained superiority.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Granada average 1.63 goals scored and conceded per game this season, with 62.5% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
- →Neither side has kept more than two clean sheets in eight matches, and both have seen BTTS in over half of their recent fixtures.
Match Context
- →Cadiz have drawn four of eight league matches and have yet to win away, but have scored in every away match so far.
🚩 Granada CF vs Cadiz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Granada CF and 4.6 for Cadiz, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How Granada CF and Cadiz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Granada CF vs Cadiz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Granada CFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Granada have struggled for momentum, winning just once in their last five matches and conceding heavily (2.4 per game in that span). Cadiz's form is similarly inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five, but their recent 4-0 victory over Leganes hints at some attacking potential. Both sides have failed to keep clean sheets regularly, and neither has established a strong run of results.
Granada CF vs Cadiz — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Granada CF vs Cadiz
Recent head-to-head clashes have been tight: five draws in the last ten meetings, including three 0-0s and several 1-1s. Granada have only beaten Cadiz once at home in this stretch, while Cadiz have also struggled to assert dominance away. The majority of matches have been low-scoring and settled by a single goal or less.
Granada CF vs Cadiz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Granada CF wins
4
Draws
3
Cadiz wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Granada CF vs Cadiz
No bookmaker odds are available at the time of modelling, so value calculations and bet recommendations are omitted. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and BTTS markets could offer value if priced above 3.0 and 2.0 respectively, given the statistical profile and H2H record.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Granada CF vs Cadiz
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of modelling; value and bet recommendations omitted.
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is mixed, with both sides registering only one win in their last five.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown; model assumes typical starting elevens.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Granada CF 1–1 CadizThe model calls a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates hovering around 1.5 per match, and a strong H2H trend toward stalemates. The greatest risk to this outcome is Granada's recent defensive instability (2.4 goals conceded per game in their last five), which could see the match tip toward an over if either attack capitalises early.
Granada CF vs Cadiz: Common Questions
Who will win Granada CF vs Cadiz?
The model rates Granada at 36% to win, Cadiz at 30%, and the draw at 34%. Both teams have similar scoring and concession rates, and the H2H record is draw-heavy, so a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Cadiz?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with Granada seeing BTTS in four of their last five and Cadiz in three of five. Neither side has kept more than two clean sheets all season.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, despite Granada's recent high-scoring games. The season over 2.5 rate for Granada is 62.5% and for Cadiz 50%, but the H2H history and overall defensive profiles suggest a lower goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Granada CF vs Cadiz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.