Girona vs FC Andorra Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Girona
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
FC Andorra
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Girona Strike Early to Down FC Andorra in Montilivi Fortress
Girona produced a clinical first-half display to secure a 2-0 victory over FC Andorra at Estadi Montilivi, with both goals coming before the break. The hosts struck early through V. Vanat in the 5th minute, setting the tone against an Andorra side that dominated possession but struggled to convert their control into clear chances. Oleksandr Pishchur doubled Girona’s advantage just after the half-hour mark, giving the home side a comfortable cushion. Despite FC Andorra’s 67% possession and six corners, Girona’s disciplined 4-4-2 shape and sharp transitions proved decisive. The visitors managed just three shots on target, while Girona were more efficient with four efforts on target from 11 attempts. Both teams picked up two yellow cards apiece in a contest that was competitive but never boiled over. Ultimately, Girona’s early ruthlessness and defensive solidity ensured all three points stayed in Catalonia.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
5' — Goal
V. Vanat finishes clinically to give Girona an early lead.
31' — Goal
Oleksandr Pishchur doubles Girona’s advantage with a composed strike.
42' — Yellow Card
Fran Beltrán (Girona) booked for a tactical foul in midfield.
56' — Yellow Card
Sergio Molina (FC Andorra) shown yellow for dissent.
Girona
Girona made the most of their limited possession, striking twice in the opening 31 minutes and then expertly managing the game. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed them to defend compactly and spring forward with purpose, exploiting Andorra’s high line. While they only saw 33% of the ball, their transitions were incisive, and the backline remained organized under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
FC Andorra
FC Andorra controlled the ball for long stretches, posting 67% possession and winning six corners, but lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Their 4-3-3 setup allowed for fluid build-up, but Girona’s compact defense frustrated their forwards. Despite 19 fouls committed in their attempts to win the ball back, Andorra could not break down the hosts and failed to find a way past Gazzaniga.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Girona’s 4-4-2 formation emphasized defensive solidity and quick transitions, ceding possession but maximizing efficiency in attack. The wide midfielders tracked back diligently, while Vanat and Pishchur provided a constant threat on the break. FC Andorra’s 4-3-3 was designed for ball retention and width, but their slow tempo allowed Girona to maintain shape and limit space between the lines. Andorra’s reliance on set pieces and crosses failed to unsettle the Girona defense, and their higher defensive line was exploited on both goals.
Turning Point
Pishchur’s goal in the 31st minute gave Girona a two-goal cushion, allowing them to sit deeper and frustrate Andorra for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
V. Vanat
Scored the crucial opener and led the line with relentless energy, setting the tone for Girona’s victory.
Girona vs FC Andorra: Match Preview
Girona sit fifth after eight matches, having lost just twice and boasting a +6 goal difference. Their recent form is solid, with three wins and a draw in their last five, and they have been particularly effective at home, scoring nine goals in five matches. By contrast, FC Andorra are languishing in 20th, with just two wins and the league's second-worst defensive record, conceding 15 goals already.
From a statistical perspective, Girona's home attack (1.8 goals per game) faces an Andorra defence conceding 1.75 per away match. Andorra's matches average 3.38 goals, with 62.5% going over 2.5, reflecting both their attacking intent and defensive vulnerability. Girona's last five show a strong shot volume (13.4 per match) and a 60% clean sheet rate, but Andorra have scored in 6 of 8, and their away games rarely end goalless. Discipline and set pieces could also play a part: Andorra average 3.8 yellows and nearly 17 fouls per game over their last five.
The model expects Girona to dominate territory and chances, but Andorra's ability to create opportunities—reflected in their 4.8 corners per game and 4 shots on target per match—means a clean sheet is far from assured. The most likely outcome is a Girona win with both teams on the scoresheet, and a moderate probability of the match going over 2.5 goals, driven by both teams' season-long scoring rates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs FC Andorra Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Girona vs FC Andorra that most previews miss.
- 1Andorra's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of 8 (62.5%), the highest rate among bottom-half sides.
- 2Girona have scored in 7 of 8 matches this season, including every home game.
- 3Andorra average 4.8 corners and 3.8 yellow cards per game over their last five outings.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs FC Andorra?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs FC Andorra(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average above 1.5 goals scored per game this season (Girona 1.75, Andorra 1.5), and Andorra's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 62.5% of the time, indicating a higher-than-average goal environment.
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Match Result: Girona Win
Girona combine a strong home attack (1.8 goals per home game) with Andorra's poor away defensive record (1.75 conceded per away match), and the hosts are 15 places higher in the table.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of Andorra's last 5 and Girona have only 3 clean sheets in 8, while Andorra have failed to score in just 2 of 8 matches.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs FC Andorra Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a moderately high-scoring contest between a top-five Girona side with a strong home record and a struggling Andorra outfit whose matches frequently feature goals at both ends. Girona's attack is notably efficient at home, while Andorra's defensive frailties away from home suggest the hosts will find chances. The likeliest scenario is Girona controlling the match, but Andorra's ability to create chances—if not always convert them—keeps the door open for a competitive scoreline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Girona's home scoring rate: 1.8 goals per game.
Defence
- →Andorra's away defensive record: 1.75 goals conceded per away match.
Match Context
- →Andorra's matches over 2.5 goals: 62.5% this season.
🚩 Girona vs FC Andorra Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Girona and 4.2 for FC Andorra, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 45% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How Girona and FC Andorra Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs FC Andorra Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Andorralast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Girona come in with momentum, unbeaten in their last three and with four wins from their last six. Their attack has been consistent, averaging 1.4 goals per game over the last five. Andorra, meanwhile, have just one win in their last five and have conceded nine in that stretch, with only one clean sheet.
Girona vs FC Andorra — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Girona vs FC Andorra
There is no competitive league history between these sides, only two friendlies: Girona won 2-0 in 2022 and the teams drew 2-2 in 2023. Both matches saw Girona score at least twice, but the sample is too small for strong conclusions.
Girona vs FC Andorra Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
2
Girona wins
1
Draws
0
FC Andorra wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Girona vs FC Andorra
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be quantified. However, the model's strongest probabilities are on a Girona win and over 2.5 goals, both supported by season-long scoring and concession rates. If market odds appear above 1.92 for over 2.5 goals, or above 2.00 for a Girona win, those would likely represent value based on these estimates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Girona vs FC Andorra
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value estimation is not possible.
- ⚠️Small sample size in head-to-head (only 2 friendlies, no recent league meetings).
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Girona 2–1 FC AndorraGirona are projected to win 2-1, with the single strongest data point being Andorra's 1.88 goals conceded per game this season. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Girona's attack underperforms against a deep Andorra block, or if Andorra convert one of their frequent set-piece opportunities into an equaliser.
Girona vs FC Andorra: Common Questions
Who will win Girona vs FC Andorra?
The model gives Girona a 52% chance of victory, with a 28% probability of a draw and 20% for an Andorra win. Girona's superior home record and Andorra's defensive struggles make the hosts clear favourites.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Girona vs FC Andorra?
There's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, as both teams average more than 1.5 goals scored per game and Andorra's matches go over 2.5 at a 62.5% clip this season.
Will both teams score in Girona vs FC Andorra?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, with Girona keeping just three clean sheets in eight and Andorra scoring in six of their eight matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs FC Andorra: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.