Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Bursaspor
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Pendikspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bursaspor Win
Match Result
7.5/10Bursaspor Dominate Pendikspor with Convincing 2-0 Home Win
Bursaspor delivered a commanding performance at the Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, dispatching Pendikspor 2-0 to secure a vital three points in the 1. Lig. The hosts asserted their authority from the outset, controlling possession and creating a flurry of chances, with goals in each half sealing the outcome. Pendikspor, meanwhile, struggled to muster any attacking threat, failing to register a single shot on target throughout the match. The home side's dominance was evident in the statistics, boasting 67% possession and firing 16 shots, nine of which were on target. Bursaspor’s attacking intent paid dividends early, and they maintained their grip on the contest, rarely allowing Pendikspor a foothold. Despite a physical contest that saw five yellow cards, Bursaspor’s composure and tactical discipline ensured a deserved victory.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
10' — Goal
K. Ịheanachọ opens the scoring for Bursaspor, finishing off a flowing move to give the hosts an early lead.
35' — Yellow Card
Pendikspor’s S. Abifade booked for a late challenge as the visitors struggle to contain Bursaspor’s midfield.
44' — Yellow Card
J. Elitim of Bursaspor shown a yellow for a tactical foul, halting a rare Pendikspor break.
62' — Goal
Bursaspor double their advantage, capitalizing on sustained pressure to make it 2-0.
70' — Yellow Card
Pendikspor’s T. İnce receives a yellow card as frustration mounts for the visitors.
Bursaspor
Bursaspor were in complete control from start to finish, dictating the tempo and pinning Pendikspor back with relentless pressure. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid attacking interplay, with the midfield trio orchestrating play and the full-backs providing width. The early goal set the tone, and Bursaspor never looked back, adding a second after the break to put the result beyond doubt. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, with the back line and goalkeeper K. Matisli enjoying a relatively quiet evening.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Pendikspor
Pendikspor endured a difficult evening, unable to cope with Bursaspor’s intensity and ball retention. Their 4-1-4-1 setup was intended to provide midfield solidity, but they were overrun and forced into a reactive, defensive posture. Struggling to build attacks, Pendikspor failed to register a shot on target and were limited to just 33% possession. Their physical approach resulted in 18 fouls and three yellow cards, but it did little to disrupt Bursaspor's rhythm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bursaspor’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate central areas, with the double pivot of J. Elitim and S. Aydoğdu providing both defensive cover and progressive passing. The attacking trio behind Ịheanachọ exploited the spaces between Pendikspor’s lines, frequently combining with overlapping full-backs. Their high pressing forced turnovers and kept Pendikspor penned in their own half. Pendikspor’s 4-1-4-1 shape was intended to congest midfield, but they were unable to disrupt Bursaspor’s rhythm or transition effectively. The lack of width and attacking support left J. Clarke-Harris isolated up front, and Pendikspor’s attempts to break forward were stifled by Bursaspor’s pressing and positional discipline. Set pieces offered little respite, with Bursaspor defending corners comfortably and creating several chances from their own seven corners.
Turning Point
K. Ịheanachọ’s early goal in the 10th minute set the tone and forced Pendikspor onto the back foot for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
K. Ịheanachọ
Scored the crucial opener, led the line superbly, and was a constant threat to the Pendikspor defence.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: Match Preview
Bursaspor enter this match sitting second in the 1. Lig, having won six of their opening nine fixtures and averaging nearly two goals per game. Their home form has been solid, with two wins, a draw, and a single defeat, while their recent five-match run (LWDWW) shows a side capable of bouncing back quickly from setbacks. Pendikspor, by contrast, are 13th, with just two wins all season and a particularly poor away record, having conceded 13 goals in five away matches and winning only once on their travels.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Bursaspor’s attack against Pendikspor’s leaky defence. Bursaspor generate 15.6 shots and 4.8 on target per match at home, while Pendikspor allow 2.6 goals per away game and have managed only one clean sheet all season. Both sides have seen four of their last five matches end with both teams scoring, and Bursaspor’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 78% of cases, suggesting a high goal environment. Set-piece data also points to an open contest, with Bursaspor averaging over six corners per game and Pendikspor conceding heavily from wide areas.
The model expects Bursaspor to control possession and create the bulk of chances, but Pendikspor’s ability to score in every one of their last five league outings means a clean sheet for the hosts is far from assured. The most likely scenario is a home win with both teams on the scoresheet, driven by Bursaspor’s superior attacking metrics and Pendikspor’s defensive frailties, but with enough attacking threat from the visitors to keep the scoreline competitive.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bursaspor vs Pendikspor that most previews miss.
- 1Bursaspor’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of 9 league games (77.8%), the highest rate among the top three sides.
- 2Pendikspor have conceded multiple goals in four of their five away league matches, shipping 13 in total on their travels.
- 3Bursaspor average 6.4 corners per game over their last five, while Pendikspor allow nearly five per match, pointing to a likely high set-piece count.
Who do you think wins: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bursaspor Win
Bursaspor have averaged 1.89 goals per game this season and boast a 54% win probability at home against a Pendikspor side conceding 2.6 goals per away match.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Bursaspor’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 78% of games, while Pendikspor’s defensive record away (13 conceded in 5) supports a higher goal expectancy.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Pendikspor have failed to score in none of their last 5, suggesting BTTS is likely.
More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Prediction
This fixture pits a promotion-chasing Bursaspor, second in the table, against a Pendikspor side struggling on their travels and defensively vulnerable. Bursaspor’s attacking output at home (2 goals per game) and Pendikspor’s away concession rate (2.6 per game) point toward a contest with clear home advantage but also a decent chance for both to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bursaspor average 1.89 goals scored per game and have scored in every home match this season.
Defence
- →Pendikspor concede 2.6 goals per away game and have kept just 1 clean sheet in 9 league matches.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
🚩 Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for Bursaspor and 4.6 for Pendikspor, for an expected total of 10.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 76% · Over 10.5: 53%.
How Bursaspor and Pendikspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bursasporlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pendiksporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bursaspor have taken 10 points from their last five matches and remain firmly in the promotion race, with only a surprise home defeat to Mardin 1969 breaking their momentum. Pendikspor, meanwhile, are winless in four of their last five league outings and have struggled defensively, particularly away from home, conceding four in their most recent trip to Sivasspor.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +45.45% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
There is no available head-to-head data for this fixture, so no historical dominance or recurring patterns can be established between Bursaspor and Pendikspor.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Bursaspor wins
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be identified. However, the model’s strong lean towards Bursaspor (54% win probability) and the high probability for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals suggest these would be the markets to monitor for value once odds are posted.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available, so historical matchup trends are unknown.
- ⚠️Pendikspor’s recent away performances include a heavy defeat and a draw with high possession but limited output, adding variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bursaspor 2–1 PendiksporBursaspor are projected to edge this contest 2-1, with their 1.89 goals per game average and Pendikspor’s 2.6 conceded per away outing the clearest statistical drivers. The principal risk is Pendikspor’s habit of scoring even in defeat—having found the net in all of their last five—so a high-scoring draw or a narrow home win with both sides scoring remains plausible.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: Common Questions
Who will win Bursaspor vs Pendikspor?
Bursaspor are rated 54% likely to win, with Pendikspor at 19% and the draw at 27%. The home side’s superior scoring rate and Pendikspor’s defensive struggles make them clear favourites.
Will both teams score in Bursaspor vs Pendikspor?
The probability for both teams to score is 57%, as both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five league matches and neither has failed to score in that span.
How many goals are expected in Bursaspor vs Pendikspor?
There’s a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Bursaspor’s 1.89 goals per game and Pendikspor’s 1.22 scored but 1.89 conceded per match, with both teams regularly involved in high-scoring games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.