Burton Albion vs Notts County Predictions
EFL Trophy · England
Burton Albion
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Notts County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Burton Albion vs Notts County
Burton Albion vs Notts County: Match Preview
Burton Albion enter this EFL Trophy tie at Pirelli Stadium without a win in the group stage, having drawn both matches (1-1 at home to Nottingham Forest U21 and 0-0 away at Grimsby). Their recent form is patchy, with only one win in their last five across all competitions and three matches without scoring. Notts County, by contrast, arrive in strong group form, boasting two wins from two and a +5 goal difference, underpinned by a five-goal showing against Forest U21.
The statistical matchup is stark: Notts County's attack is firing at 3.5 goals per game in the EFL Trophy, supported by 14.4 shots and 4.6 on target per match over their last five. Burton's defence has kept just one clean sheet in the same period and concedes 1.2 per game. Corners are likely to be plentiful, with both teams averaging over 5 per match, while disciplinary records suggest a moderate card count, combining for just over four bookings per game.
Given these rates, the model expects Notts County to create the higher-quality chances and edge the contest. Burton's path to a result likely depends on suppressing the tempo and keeping the contest low-scoring, but the away side's superior attacking numbers and recent head-to-head success (three straight wins) make them favourites for a 2-1 or 2-0 victory.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burton Albion vs Notts County that most previews miss.
- 1Notts County's EFL Trophy group matches have averaged 4.5 total goals, with both games finishing over 2.5.
- 2Burton have failed to score in three of their last five matches, including one of two group games.
- 3Across the last three H2H meetings, Notts County have won every time, with two of those by a 2-1 margin.
Who do you think wins: Burton Albion vs Notts County?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burton Albion vs Notts County(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Notts County's EFL Trophy matches average 4.5 goals per game (7 scored, 2 conceded in 2 matches), while Burton have conceded in both group games; the model rates over 2.5 at 56%.
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Match Result: Notts County Win
Notts County have won all three recent H2H meetings and average 3.5 goals per game in this season's competition, while Burton have failed to win in the group (0W, 2D); away win probability estimated at 47%.
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More EFL Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Burton Albion vs Notts County Prediction
Statistical indicators point to Notts County as the more potent side, with a scoring rate of 3.5 goals per game in the EFL Trophy group stage and a five-goal haul in their last match in the competition. Burton Albion, by contrast, have struggled for attacking output, averaging just 0.5 goals per game in the group and failing to score in three of their last five in all competitions. The away side's attack faces a Burton defence that has managed only one clean sheet in their last five. The matchup is defined by Notts County's high shot volume (14.4 total, 4.6 on target per last five) against a Burton side conceding 1.2 goals per game recently. Set-piece metrics also favour a busy contest: Burton average 6.8 corners per game and Notts County 5, suggesting opportunities for both. Disciplinary rates are moderate, with both teams combining for just over 4 cards per game in recent outings. The model expects Notts County's superior attacking rates to tilt the contest, with Burton likely to require a low-scoring, attritional game to stand a chance. The most probable scenario is an away win by a narrow margin, with a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline reflecting both the away side's firepower and Burton's limited attacking threat.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Burton Albion have failed to score in three of their last five matches across all competitions.
Attack
- →Notts County average 3.5 goals scored per game in the EFL Trophy group stage, highest in the group.
Match Context
- →All three recent head-to-head meetings have been won by Notts County, including a 2-1 away win at Burton last season.
🚩 Burton Albion vs Notts County Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Burton Albion and 4.2 for Notts County, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Burton Albion and Notts County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burton Albionlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burton Albion's recent form is inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches and three outings without a goal. Notts County, meanwhile, have won three of their last five, including both EFL Trophy group matches, and are averaging two goals per game over that span.
Burton Albion vs Notts County — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Burton Albion vs Notts County
Notts County have a clear edge in the head-to-head, winning all three recent encounters, including a 2-1 away victory at Burton last season and a 2-1 win in the EFL Trophy at Pirelli Stadium in 2024. Burton have not beaten Notts County in this fixture for over a decade.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
Burton Albion wins
0
Draws
3
Notts County wins
Things to Watch: Burton Albion vs Notts County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Standings data for the group is missing, limiting context on qualification scenarios.
- ⚠️Small sample size for EFL Trophy group matches (2 per side) increases variance in goal and win probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burton Albion 1–2 Notts CountyThe model projects a 2-1 win for Notts County, driven primarily by their group-leading attack (3.5 goals per game) and a perfect record in recent head-to-heads. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if Burton manage to stifle the tempo and turn the match into a low-event draw, capitalising on Notts County's away-day variance.
Burton Albion vs Notts County: Common Questions
Who will win Burton Albion vs Notts County?
The model gives Notts County a 47% chance of victory, compared to 24% for Burton Albion and 29% for the draw. Notts County's superior scoring rate and head-to-head record make them statistical favourites.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Burton Albion vs Notts County?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 56% probability, with Notts County's matches in this competition averaging 4.5 goals and Burton conceding in both group games.
Have Notts County dominated Burton Albion in recent meetings?
Yes, Notts County have won all three recent head-to-heads, including two EFL Trophy matches and a League One fixture this season, with two of those wins by a 2-1 scoreline.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burton Albion vs Notts County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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