Castellón vs Cadiz Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Castellón
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Cadiz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.5(+16% edge)
Match Result
7.1/10Castellón Held by Cadiz in Tense Draw Despite Dominance
Castellón and Cadiz played out a 1-1 draw at Estadio Municipal Castalia, with the hosts left ruing missed opportunities after dominating both possession and chances. Castellón took the lead early in the second half, but Cadiz responded with clinical efficiency to snatch a point against the run of play. Both sides finished with a flurry of yellow cards in a contest that grew increasingly tense as the clock ticked down. The home side controlled the tempo with 62% possession and peppered the Cadiz goal with 19 shots, though only two found the target. Cadiz, meanwhile, managed just four shots—all on target—and made one of their rare forays forward count with a well-taken equalizer. The result leaves Castellón frustrated, having failed to convert their dominance into victory, while Cadiz will be pleased to escape with a draw from a difficult away fixture.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
54' — Goal
A. Calatrava puts Castellón ahead after sustained pressure.
74' — Goal
L. Perez equalizes for Cadiz with a clinical finish.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Cadiz collect six yellow cards as they battle to contain Castellón's attack.
Castellón
Castellón set the tone from the outset, dictating play with a 4-4-2 formation and enjoying the lion’s share of possession. Their midfield quartet, led by Barri and B. Gerenabarrena, recycled the ball efficiently and created a steady stream of chances. However, despite racking up 19 shots and six corners, the hosts struggled with end product, registering just two shots on target. Their breakthrough came in the 54th minute, but profligacy in front of goal ultimately cost them all three points. Defensively, Castellón were rarely troubled, but a lapse allowed Cadiz to level. The home side's frustration was evident as the match wore on, collecting three yellow cards in the process.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cadiz
Cadiz set up in a 4-1-4-1 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to strike on the break. They saw little of the ball, with just 38% possession, and spent much of the match under pressure. However, their efficiency was remarkable—each of their four shots was on target, and they capitalized on a rare opportunity to equalize in the 74th minute. The visitors' resilience was tested, as evidenced by six yellow cards, but they held firm in the closing stages to secure a valuable point. Keeper D. Gil played a crucial role, helping to keep Castellón at bay despite the onslaught.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Castellón’s 4-4-2 allowed them to dominate midfield and stretch Cadiz with width, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third was glaring. The home side’s full-backs pushed high, contributing to sustained pressure but occasionally leaving space for Cadiz to exploit on the counter. Cadiz’s 4-1-4-1 was compact and disciplined, with R. Kouame shielding the defense and the midfield line dropping deep to frustrate Castellón’s build-up. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical landscape, as both teams largely stuck to their initial game plans. Set pieces offered Castellón additional opportunities, but Cadiz defended their box robustly, relying on last-ditch interventions and the safe hands of D. Gil. The visitors' focus on defensive structure and opportunistic counter-attacks ultimately paid dividends.
Turning Point
L. Perez’s equalizer in the 74th minute shifted momentum and deflated Castellón, who had been in control up to that point.
Man of the Match
D. Gil
Kept Cadiz in the game with key saves, especially given Castellón's relentless pressure.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 3-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Castellón vs Cadiz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Castellón vs Cadiz?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Castellón vs Cadiz(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.5
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.38) is significantly higher than the odds-implied probability (0.22), suggesting value on the over despite both teams' under-trending recent games. Castellón's home attack and Cadiz's defensive frailty increase the chance of a higher-scoring match.
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Match Result: Castellón Win@ 1.1
Castellón are in much stronger form, have a strong home record, and face a Cadiz side in poor away form. However, the odds are very short and offer little value.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Castellón vs Cadiz Prediction
Castellón come into this fixture with clear momentum, chasing promotion and boasting a strong home record, while Cadiz are struggling near the relegation zone with a poor run of form. Castellón's attack has been consistently productive, especially at home, and they face a Cadiz side that has struggled to score and defend, particularly away from home. Despite a recent history of Cadiz success in this matchup, the form and motivation edge is firmly with the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Castellón have scored in every one of their last 5 matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
- →Recent H2H favors Cadiz, but current form and league position strongly favor Castellón.
Attack
- →Castellón's home record: 12W-3D-4L, 39 goals scored in 19 home games.
Defence
- →Cadiz's away record: 4W-7D-8L, 18 goals scored and 28 conceded in 19 away games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
🚩 Castellón vs Cadiz Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Castellón and 4 for Cadiz, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Castellón and Cadiz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Castellón vs Cadiz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Castellónlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadizlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Castellón are unbeaten in four of their last five matches (2W-2D-1L), showing resilience and a consistent attacking threat, having scored in each game. Cadiz, by contrast, are winless in their last five (1D-4L), struggling badly in attack and defense, and have failed to score in three of those games.
Castellón vs Cadiz — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Castellón vs Cadiz
While Castellón are favored by form and league position, the recent head-to-head record is a concern, as Cadiz have won both of the last two meetings, including a convincing away win. However, those results came when Cadiz were in better form; their current struggles suggest a different dynamic this time.
Castellón vs Cadiz Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Castellón wins
2
Draws
2
Cadiz wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Castellón vs Cadiz
The biggest value discrepancy is on over 2.5 goals, where the model probability (0.38) is much higher than the odds-implied probability (0.22), making it a worthwhile value play. The 1x2 market is heavily skewed towards Castellón, offering little value at current odds. Draw and away options are overpriced by bookmakers but not supported by model probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Castellón vs Cadiz
- ⚠️Recent H2H meetings favor Cadiz, including an away win at Castellón.
- ⚠️Castellón have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
- ⚠️Over 2.5 goals is not a high-probability outcome, but odds create value.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, lineups) are missing for several games, adding model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Castellón vs Cadiz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.