Castellón vs Eibar Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Castellón
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Eibar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.6/10Castellón Edge Eibar in Spirited Segunda División Contest
Castellón secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Eibar at Estadio SkyFi Castalia, capping off an entertaining clash marked by attacking intent and tactical discipline. The hosts took the lead just before the break, but Eibar responded early in the second half to level proceedings. However, Castellón's persistence paid off with a decisive goal midway through the second period, ultimately ensuring all three points remained in Castellón. The match saw Castellón dominate possession with 53% and register a remarkable 21 shots, 9 of which were on target, reflecting their attacking ambition. Eibar, meanwhile, defended resolutely in a 5-4-1 setup, mustering 12 shots but only 2 on target, and struggled to match the home side's offensive threat. Despite a spirited response after halftime, Eibar's efforts fell short as Castellón's midfield and attacking duo found the breakthrough that proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Ousmane Camara breaks the deadlock for Castellón with a well-taken finish.
57' — Goal
Javier Martón levels for Eibar, capitalizing on a rare attacking move.
71' — Goal
Adam Jakobsen restores Castellón's lead with a decisive strike.
78' — Yellow Card
Eibar's only booking of the match, highlighting their defensive commitment.
Castellón
Castellón impressed with a proactive approach, controlling possession and consistently threatening Eibar's goal. Their 4-4-2 formation enabled them to stretch Eibar's defensive line, and their midfielders played key roles in both distribution and pressing. The home side's attacking intent was clear, as evidenced by their 21 shots and 8 corners, and they showed resilience to respond after being pegged back to 1-1. Defensively, Castellón remained organized, conceding only 2 shots on target, and their ability to regain the lead showcased their mental fortitude. The absence of yellow cards further highlighted their disciplined performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Eibar
Eibar set up in a defensive 5-4-1 formation, aiming to frustrate Castellón and hit on the break. While they managed to keep the hosts at bay for stretches and responded well after conceding, their attacking output was limited, with just 2 shots on target from 12 attempts. Eibar's midfield battled hard but struggled to sustain possession or create clear-cut chances. After equalizing early in the second half, Eibar showed renewed energy, but their inability to maintain momentum or convert limited opportunities ultimately cost them. The single yellow card reflected a largely disciplined but ultimately insufficient defensive effort.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Castellón's 4-4-2 formation allowed them to press high and maintain width, stretching Eibar's back five and creating numerous shooting opportunities. Their midfield quartet provided balance, with Álex Calatrava orchestrating play and supporting both attack and defense. The home side's willingness to commit numbers forward was reflected in their high shot count and corner tally. Eibar's 5-4-1 was designed to absorb pressure and counterattack, but their deep defensive line often invited Castellón forward. While the system enabled Eibar to frustrate the hosts at times and provided a platform for their equalizer, it left their lone striker isolated and limited their attacking options. Tactical substitutions were minimal, and neither side deviated significantly from their starting shape.
Turning Point
Adam Jakobsen's goal in the 71st minute, which restored Castellón's lead and shifted momentum decisively in their favor.
Man of the Match
Adam Jakobsen
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and intelligence, proving decisive in a tightly contested encounter.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Castellón vs Eibar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Castellón vs Eibar?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Castellón vs Eibar(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both teams are closely matched in league position and recent form, with Castellón drawing several recent matches and the H2H history showing a tendency for low-scoring, tight games including a recent 0-0. The model rates the draw probability slightly higher than typical market averages for similar fixtures.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Castellón's season over 2.5 goals rate is only 50%, and Eibar's away matches have been low-scoring (14 goals scored, 21 conceded in 20 away games). H2H history also supports a low total, with two of the last three meetings finishing under 2.5.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Castellón vs Eibar Prediction
This is a pivotal late-season clash between two sides with promotion ambitions, separated by just two points in the standings. Castellón boast a strong home record but have recently struggled to convert matches into wins, while Eibar are solid but unspectacular away from home. Both teams are defensively organized, and previous meetings suggest a tight, low-scoring contest is likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Eibar's poor away attack (14 goals in 20 away games)
- →Recent H2H matches have been low-scoring and closely contested
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- →Castellón's strong home record (12W, 4D, 4L, 40:24 GF:GA)
- →Both teams have drawn several recent matches, indicating balance
🚩 Castellón vs Eibar Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Castellón and 4.8 for Eibar, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How Castellón and Eibar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Castellón vs Eibar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Castellónlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Castellón's recent form has been mixed, with a tendency to draw (four draws in their last seven), but they remain tough to beat at home. Eibar's form string is unavailable for the last five, but their season away record suggests struggles in attack and a tendency to lose or draw on the road.
Castellón vs Eibar — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 20 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Castellón vs Eibar
The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team claiming one win and one draw in the last three meetings. The most recent match ended 0-0, and only one of the last three H2H saw more than one goal scored, suggesting a low-scoring trend when these sides meet.
Castellón vs Eibar Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Castellón wins
1
Draws
1
Eibar wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Castellón vs Eibar
With no bookmaker odds provided, value edges cannot be calculated. However, the model's probabilities indicate that the draw and under 2.5 goals are both more likely than average for this league and fixture type, suggesting these would be the primary areas to look for value if odds become available.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Castellón vs Eibar
- ⚠️No recent match-by-match form or lineup data for Eibar; recent momentum is unclear
- ⚠️No up-to-date odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified
- ⚠️Lack of last 5 match stats limits confidence in short-term trends
- ⚠️Model relies on season-long averages and H2H patterns
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Castellón vs Eibar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.