Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Celta de Vigo II
Full Time
0 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 1
Eibar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Eibar Run Riot at Barreiro: Four-Goal Blitz Sinks Celta de Vigo II
Eibar delivered a ruthless first-half performance to dismantle Celta de Vigo II 4-0 at the Municipal de Barreiro, asserting their Segunda División credentials with a clinical display. The visitors raced into an unassailable lead before halftime, netting three times in the opening 20 minutes and adding a fourth just before the break. Celta de Vigo II, despite dominating possession with 65%, were left shell-shocked by Eibar’s efficiency and incisive attacking play. The hosts carved out opportunities, firing 24 shots with 9 on target, but a combination of wasteful finishing and Eibar’s defensive discipline kept them at bay. Eibar, meanwhile, made the most of their 12 shots (7 on target), punishing Celta’s defensive lapses and setting the tone with early goals. The second half saw tempers flare, with both sides collecting four yellow cards, but the damage was already done as Eibar saw out a statement away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
9' — Goal
Eibar open the scoring, shocking the hosts early
13' — Goal
Eibar double their lead with another incisive attack
20' — Goal
Eibar make it three, capitalizing on defensive confusion
43' — Goal
Eibar add a fourth before halftime, sealing the result
Second Half' — Disciplinary
Both teams rack up yellow cards as frustration grows
Late' — Red Card
Celta de Vigo II reduced to 10 men, ending hopes of a comeback
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (65%) and pressed forward relentlessly, but their defensive frailties were brutally exposed by Eibar’s early onslaught. Despite creating a high volume of chances—24 shots, 9 on target—the hosts lacked composure in front of goal and were repeatedly caught out on the counter. Their midfield quartet struggled to shield the back three, and individual errors proved costly. The second half saw a more spirited response, but frustration boiled over with four yellow cards and a red, further compounding a forgettable evening. The attacking trio of O. Marcos, A. Marin, and Ángel Arcos were lively but ultimately lacked the cutting edge to spark a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Eibar
Eibar produced a masterclass in clinical finishing and tactical discipline, making the most of their 35% possession to inflict maximum damage. Their 4-2-3-1 setup provided defensive solidity and rapid transitions, with the attacking midfielders supporting Jon Bautista to devastating effect. Eibar’s first-half efficiency—scoring four times from seven shots on target—effectively killed the contest before halftime. In the second half, Eibar managed the game expertly, absorbing pressure and maintaining composure despite picking up four yellow cards. Their backline, marshaled by Unai Elgezabal and Anaitz Arbilla, stood firm to preserve the clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Celta de Vigo II lined up in a bold 3-4-3, seeking to dominate possession and overload the midfield. While this approach yielded control of the ball and numerous chances, it left their back three exposed to Eibar’s swift transitions. The wing-backs pushed high, but Eibar’s 4-2-3-1 exploited the space behind with quick, vertical attacks, especially in the opening 20 minutes. Eibar’s double pivot shielded the defense and launched attacks through the creative trio behind Bautista. After racing ahead, Eibar dropped deeper, focusing on compactness and denying Celta space in the final third. Substitutions in the second half did little to alter the tactical balance, as Eibar’s discipline and organization stifled any home revival.
Turning Point
Eibar’s third goal in the 20th minute, which deflated Celta de Vigo II and effectively ended the contest early.
Man of the Match
Jon Bautista
Led the line with clinical finishing and relentless movement, central to Eibar’s early blitz.
Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar: Match Preview
Celta de Vigo II enter this fixture sixth in the table, having claimed two wins, a draw and a loss from their opening four. Their defensive structure has been a strength, with three clean sheets in their last five competitive outings and only one match where they failed to score. Eibar, sitting second, are riding a three-match winning streak and have conceded just three times in four league games, underlining their defensive discipline.
The statistical matchup points to a contest defined by defensive rates and low shot volumes. Celta de Vigo II average 1.75 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, while Eibar's away record is built on a single 1-0 win, and their overall concession rate stands at just 0.75 per match. Both sides have seen under 2.5 goals in half of their league fixtures, and neither has a pronounced attacking edge: Celta's home xG is modest, and Eibar's shot output (8.6 per game) is not high for a side near the top. Set-piece threat is muted, with both teams combining for under 6 corners per game on average.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring encounter, with a draw the most likely outcome. Both teams' propensity for clean sheets and the lack of clear attacking firepower suggest a narrow margin either way, but the probabilities tilt toward a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline. The main risk to this outlook is an early goal opening up the contest, but the underlying rates do not point to an open game.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar that most previews miss.
- 1Eibar have kept clean sheets in 75% of their league matches this season, conceding just once in their only away fixture.
- 2Celta de Vigo II's home matches average just 4.5 total goals per two games, but 80% of their goals have come after half-time in the last five.
- 3Combined, these teams have produced under 2.5 goals in 4 of 8 league matches this campaign.
Who do you think wins: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.05
The model assigns a 35% probability to the draw (odds imply 31%), supported by both teams' defensive solidity (combined 6 clean sheets in last 10) and low season scoring rates (home 1.75, away 1.5 goals per game).
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The Case For This Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-scoring, closely contested affair between two defensively robust sides. Both Celta de Vigo II and Eibar have averaged under 2 goals conceded per game this season, and their recent form is marked by clean sheets and narrow margins. The underlying rates suggest little to separate them, with a slight edge to Eibar's away resilience but no clear attacking superiority.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Celta de Vigo II: 3 clean sheets in last 5, 1.75 goals scored/1 conceded per game (season)
- →Eibar: 3 consecutive wins, 0.75 goals conceded per game (season), 75% clean sheet rate
Match Context
- →Both teams: Under 2.5 goals in 50% of matches, last 5 BTTS only twice per side
🚩 Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Celta de Vigo II and 3.6 for Eibar, for an expected total of 8.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 42% · Over 10.5: 19%.
How Celta de Vigo II and Eibar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Celta de Vigo IIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Celta de Vigo II have alternated results but remain defensively solid, conceding just four times in four league matches and recording three clean sheets in their last five. Eibar arrive in stronger form, with three straight wins and only one goal conceded in their last three league games. Both teams are trending towards low-scoring, tightly contested matches.
Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
There is no available head-to-head record between Celta de Vigo II and Eibar, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can be referenced for this fixture.
Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Celta de Vigo II wins
0
Draws
1
Eibar wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
The draw offers the clearest value edge, with the model's 35% probability outstripping the bookmaker's implied 31% (odds 3.2). This is supported by both teams' defensive rates and the early season tendency for close games. Other markets, such as BTTS 'no', align closely with the odds, offering little additional value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams limits historical matchup insight.
- ⚠️Small sample size (4 league matches) means early season rates may not fully stabilise.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could affect defensive solidity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Celta de Vigo II 1–1 EibarThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, driven by both teams' strong defensive records—six clean sheets between them in their last ten matches. The single strongest data point is Eibar's 0.75 goals conceded per game, which, combined with Celta de Vigo II's 50% clean sheet rate, points to a low-scoring contest. The main risk is that an early goal disrupts the defensive structure, but the underlying rates make a cagey, balanced match the baseline expectation.
Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar: Common Questions
Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
Eibar are slight favourites with a 38% win probability, but the draw is nearly as likely at 35%. Celta de Vigo II have a 27% chance, so the model sees this as a close contest, with a draw the most probable single outcome.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
The probability for both teams to score is 45%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 55%. Both sides have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and only two of their last five matches each have seen BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability, supported by both teams' defensive records and the fact that half of their league matches have finished under this line so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.