Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Charleroi
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: Match Preview
Charleroi enter this fixture riding a three-match winning streak in the league, conceding just once and collecting six points at home. Union St. Gilloise, though only eighth in the table after two matches, have already posted a statement 5-1 away win and remain unbeaten. The league table is still settling, but both sides have early momentum and top-half ambitions.
Statistically, Charleroi's home attack (2.5 goals per game at home) faces a Union defence that has conceded just once in two league matches. Union's away attack stands out: five goals in a single road outing, and their overall season average of 2.5 goals scored per game is the highest in the matchup. Charleroi's defensive numbers are strong (0.33 goals conceded per game), but their last five matches show a clear second-half bias for goals conceded (6 of 8 total after the break), which aligns with Union's ability to score late, as seen in their Champions League draw.
The model projects a moderate-to-high goal environment, with over 2.5 goals slightly favoured and both teams likely to score. Union's historical dominance, combined with their away scoring rate, gives them the edge, but Charleroi's recent defensive improvement and home form suggest they will be competitive, especially in the first half. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with Union's superior conversion rate and head-to-head record decisive.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise that most previews miss.
- 1Union St. Gilloise have scored in every away league match this season and averaged 2.8 goals per game across their last five competitive fixtures.
- 2Charleroi's last five matches feature a 2:6 first-half to second-half goal split, with most goals conceded after halftime.
- 3Eight of the last ten H2H meetings have seen Union St. Gilloise win, and only two have finished level.
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The Case For This Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction
Charleroi have opened the campaign with three straight wins, conceding just once, but Union St. Gilloise arrive with a formidable away scoring rate and an overwhelming head-to-head record. The statistical matchup points to a moderate goal environment, with both sides averaging over two goals per game early in the season, but Union's away firepower and Charleroi's tendency to concede after halftime tip the balance. Expect a contest decided by Union's efficiency on the road and Charleroi's ability to withstand sustained pressure in the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Union St. Gilloise have won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Charleroi.
Defence
- →Charleroi's season home record: 2 wins from 2, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- →Union St. Gilloise average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per league match this season.
🚩 Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Charleroi and 5.7 for Union St. Gilloise, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Charleroilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Union St. Gilloiselast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charleroi have started the league with three consecutive wins, conceding just one goal and posting two home clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their two league matches, including a 5-1 away win, and have averaged 2.8 goals per game across their last five competitive fixtures. Both sides bring strong momentum, but Charleroi's run is built on defensive solidity while Union's is fuelled by attacking output.
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning eight of the last ten meetings and drawing the other two. Charleroi have not beaten Union in this span, and Union have scored at least twice in six of those encounters. The historical pattern strongly favours the visitors.
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Charleroi wins
2
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise wins
Things to Watch: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' league form (3 and 2 matches respectively).
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges or recommended bets can be computed.
- ⚠️Early-season data may overstate current attacking or defensive levels.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Charleroi 1–2 Union St. GilloiseThe model favours Union St. Gilloise to extend their dominance over Charleroi, projecting a 2-1 away win based on their superior away scoring rate (2.5 per game) and overwhelming H2H record (eight wins in ten). The biggest risk to this outcome is Charleroi's improved defensive structure at home, which has yielded two clean sheets from three league matches and could frustrate Union if the visitors' attack cools off.
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: Common Questions
Who will win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise are modelled as 45% likely winners, with Charleroi at 23% and the draw at 32%. Union's away scoring rate and head-to-head record give them the edge, but Charleroi's home form narrows the gap.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, with both sides averaging at least 2 goals per game so far and each conceding just once per match. Charleroi have scored in every league outing, while Union have only failed to score in one of their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, based on both teams' early-season attack rates (Charleroi 2.0, Union 2.5 goals per game) and a history of high-scoring H2H fixtures. However, both sides have also shown defensive discipline, so the margin is narrow.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.