Chesham United vs Farnham Town Predictions

Chesham United PredictionsFarnham Town PredictionsNational League - SouthH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
National League - SouthNational League - South · England
high confidence
Chesham United

Chesham United

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

Farnham Town

Farnham Town

🗓️ Tuesday, 27 Oct 2026 at 19:45 GMT (venue time) · 19:45 UTC (your time)📍 The Meadow, Chesham

Win Probability (1X2)

Chesham United 22%Draw 28%Farnham Town 50%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: Farnham Town Win

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Chesham United vs Farnham Town

Match Result: Farnham Town Win
7/10
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10

Chesham United vs Farnham Town: Match Preview

Chesham United approach this fixture in a precarious position, sitting 19th with just 10 points from 11 matches and a concerning defensive record. Their form string, DLWLW, masks the reality of three heavy home defeats in their last five league outings, including a 0-5 and a 0-4 loss. Farnham Town, in contrast, occupy mid-table (11th) and have been far more effective on their travels, collecting three wins and a draw from five away games and showing greater consistency in both attack and defence.

The statistical matchup is defined by Chesham's porous home defence (13 conceded in 5) against a Farnham side that has scored in every away league match. Chesham's matches are the league's most goal-laden, with 82% finishing over 2.5 goals, while Farnham have seen BTTS in each of their last five. Notably, Farnham's away record (7 scored, 5 conceded in 5) suggests a balanced threat, and their recent matches show a tendency to strike early, with four first-half goals in their last five.

The model expects Farnham to capitalise on Chesham's defensive issues, projecting a 2-1 away win. The high probability of over 2.5 goals (66%) is underpinned by both sides' season-long scoring and concession rates. Chesham's attack has been inconsistent, failing to score in three of their last five, but Farnham's defensive lapses mean both teams are likely to find the net.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Chesham United1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Farnham Town2.00

Expected goals · model says 2.00

Win Probability
Chesham United 26% Draw 22% Farnham Town 53%

Over 2.5 Goals

65%

BTTS: Yes

64%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Chesham United vs Farnham Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
22%
28%
50%
Chesham United 22%Draw 28%Farnham Town 50%
Both Teams to Score
62%
38%
Yes 62%No 38%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
66%
34%
Over 2.5 66%Under 2.5 34%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Chesham United vs Farnham Town that most previews miss.

  • 1Chesham United have the league's highest over 2.5 goals rate at 81.8%.
  • 2Farnham Town have scored in every away league match this season (5/5).
  • 3BTTS has landed in each of Farnham's last five matches across all competitions.

Who do you think wins: Chesham United vs Farnham Town?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

More National League - South Predictions

17-Nov-2026Truro City vs Billericay TownView prediction →02-Nov-2026Chelmsford City vs Farnham TownView prediction →28-Oct-2026Farnborough vs Weston-super-MareView prediction →27-Oct-2026Maidstone Utd vs Ebbsfleet UnitedView prediction →27-Oct-2026Dover vs Chelmsford CityView prediction →27-Oct-2026Braintree vs Dagenham & RedbridgeView prediction →

The Case For This Chesham United vs Farnham Town Prediction

Statistical indicators point toward a high-scoring contest, with Farnham Town's away efficiency and Chesham United's defensive frailty at home driving the model's edge toward the visitors. Both teams have been involved in open games, but Farnham's consistency on the road contrasts sharply with Chesham's home struggles.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →81.8% of Chesham's league matches have finished over 2.5 goals.

Defence

  • →Chesham United have conceded 13 goals in 5 home league matches (2.6 per game).
  • →Farnham Town are unbeaten in 4 of 5 away league matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per away game.

How Chesham United and Farnham Town Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Chesham United vs Farnham Town Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Chesham UnitedChesham Unitedlast 5 matches
D. Eze
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. Babos
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

H. Kasimu
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. Bennetts
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Farnham TownFarnham Townlast 5 matches
R. Bingham
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

D. Sanders
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

T. Cook
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

O. Dean
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Chesham United have struggled for consistency, losing three of their last five league matches at home and conceding nine goals in their last two home league outings. Farnham Town, meanwhile, have been steadier, taking points from four of their last five away games and scoring in every league match on the road this season.

Chesham United vs Farnham Town — Last 10 Matches

Chesham UnitedChesham UnitedLast 10 results
L0-5
L0-4
W4-1
L1-2
L1-3
D2-2
W4-0
W2-0
L0-1
L2-3
Lvs Chelmsford City0-5
Lvs Maidenhead0-4
W@ Horsham4-1
Lvs Billericay Town1-2
L@ Truro City1-3
Dvs Dover2-2
W@ AFC Totton4-0
Wvs Walton & Hersham2-0
L@ Farnborough0-1
L@ Braintree2-3

Strengths

  • +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 81.82% of games this season

Concerns

  • −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Farnham TownFarnham TownLast 10 results
L1-2
D2-2
W3-2
W2-1
D1-1
W2-0
W2-1
L2-4
W1-0
L1-2
Lvs Salisbury1-2
Dvs Truro City2-2
Wvs Weston-super-Mare3-2
W@ Folkestone Invicta2-1
D@ Hemel Hempstead Town1-1
Wvs Torquay2-0
W@ Horsham2-1
Lvs Billericay Town2-4
W@ Slough Town1-0
L@ Dagenham & Redbridge1-2

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games

Concerns

  • −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches

What History Says: Chesham United vs Farnham Town

There is minimal head-to-head history, with only one prior meeting: Chesham United won 2-1 away in the FA Cup in 2023. No recurring trends or dominant patterns can be drawn from this limited sample.

Chesham United vs Farnham Town Head-to-Head History

Last 1 meeting between these sides

1

Chesham United wins

0

Draws

0

Farnham Town wins

100%0% draws0%
16 Sept 23Farnham Town vs Chesham United1-2

Things to Watch: Chesham United vs Farnham Town

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value edges cannot be calculated.
  • ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set-piece data limits tactical depth.
  • ⚠️Only one historical H2H meeting between these sides.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Chesham United 1–2 Farnham Town

Farnham Town are favoured to take three points with a projected 2-1 win, driven primarily by Chesham United's league-worst home defensive record (2.6 conceded per game). The main risk is Chesham's sporadic attacking outbursts at home, which could turn the match into a shootout and threaten the away win probability.

Chesham United vs Farnham Town: Common Questions

Who will win Chesham United vs Farnham Town?

Farnham Town are modelled as 50% likely to win, with Chesham United at 22% and the draw at 28%. This reflects Farnham's strong away form and Chesham's defensive struggles at home.

Will both teams score in Chesham United vs Farnham Town?

There is a 62% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Farnham's BTTS streak (5 consecutive) and Chesham conceding in 82% of league matches.

How likely is over 2.5 goals in Chesham United vs Farnham Town?

The model gives a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Chesham's matches topping the division for high scores (82% over 2.5) and both sides averaging above 1.4 goals scored per game.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chesham United vs Farnham Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 20 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More Chesham United vs Farnham Town Resources

→

Chesham United Predictions

All Chesham United fixtures & tips

→

Farnham Town Predictions

All Farnham Town fixtures & tips

→

Chesham United vs Farnham Town Stats

Full H2H record & season stats

→

Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United

Chesham United — next match predictions

→

Farnham Town vs Braintree

Farnham Town — next match predictions

→

National League - South Predictions

All fixtures for this competition

→

Model Accuracy

Track record & verified results