Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United Predictions
National League - South · England
Dagenham & Redbridge
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chesham United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Dagenham & Redbridge Win
Recommended Bets: Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United: Match Preview
Dagenham & Redbridge enter this match in a strong position, sitting 5th with 20 points from 11 games and boasting a formidable home record—just 2 goals conceded in 6 home league fixtures. Their recent form is steady, with only one loss in their last five, and three clean sheets in that span. Chesham United, by contrast, are 19th and have lost 7 of 11, with their last league outing a heavy 0-5 home defeat to Chelmsford City. Their away record is mixed: 2 wins and 4 losses, but they have managed to score in most away games.
Statistically, the contrast is stark: Dagenham's matches average just 1.55 total goals, lowest in the league, while Chesham's average a league-high 3.63. Dagenham's defensive structure at home (0.33 conceded per game) will be tested by a Chesham attack averaging 1.45 goals per game, but the away side's defensive frailty (2.18 conceded per game, 0 clean sheets in their last 5) is likely to be their undoing. Over 2.5 goals has landed in just 18% of Dagenham's league games but in 82% of Chesham's, suggesting the goal line is set by Chesham's volatility.
The model expects Dagenham & Redbridge to dictate the tempo, leveraging their home defensive solidity while exploiting Chesham's porous back line. However, Chesham's capacity to score on the road—11 goals in 6 away games—means a clean sheet is far from assured. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win with both teams finding the net, as Dagenham's control edges out Chesham's chaos.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United that most previews miss.
- 1Dagenham & Redbridge have conceded just 0.33 goals per home game (2 in 6), the lowest home rate in the league.
- 2Chesham United's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 9 of 11 league games (81.82%), with a 3.63 goals/game average.
- 3Both previous H2H meetings have been won by Dagenham & Redbridge, with Chesham scoring just once in two games.
Who do you think wins: Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Dagenham & Redbridge Win
Dagenham & Redbridge have a 53% modelled win probability, supported by a strong home defensive record (6 goals for, 2 against in 6 home games) and a 54.55% clean sheet rate, while Chesham United have lost 4 of 6 away and conceded 24 league goals.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Chesham United's matches average 3.63 goals, with 81.82% over 2.5, while Dagenham & Redbridge's defensive solidity tempers the total but the away side's open style lifts the expected goal environment above league average.
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BTTS: Yes
Despite Dagenham & Redbridge's defensive strength, Chesham United have scored in 4 of 6 away games and their attack (1.45 goals/game) is considerably stronger than their defence, making BTTS (54% modelled) a marginally favoured outcome.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United Prediction
This fixture pits one of the National League South's most defensively robust home sides against a Chesham United team whose matches are consistently high-scoring but defensively frail. Dagenham & Redbridge's home record (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, just 2 conceded) contrasts sharply with Chesham's away record, which features 11 goals scored but an equal number conceded from 6 outings. The statistical shape of the game points to Dagenham's control, but Chesham's volatility keeps the door open for goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dagenham & Redbridge have conceded just 2 goals in 6 home league matches (0.33 per game).
- →Chesham United have seen over 2.5 goals in 9 of 11 league games (81.82%), with 24 conceded overall.
- →Dagenham & Redbridge have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches but Chesham have scored 11 in 6 away.
How Dagenham & Redbridge and Chesham United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Dagenham & Redbridgelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dagenham & Redbridge are on a steady run, unbeaten in four of their last five and with three clean sheets in that span, continuing a season-long trend of defensive solidity. Chesham United, in contrast, have lost three of their last five and conceded nine goals in their last two league games, highlighting a defensive crisis despite sporadic attacking output.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +54.55% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 81.82% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United
Dagenham & Redbridge have dominated the brief head-to-head, winning both encounters and conceding just once. Their last home meeting ended 3-1, and Chesham have yet to take a point from this fixture.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Dagenham & Redbridge wins
0
Draws
0
Chesham United wins
Things to Watch: Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value estimates are not possible.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data for either side; all estimates based on goals and results only.
- ⚠️Chesham United's recent form is highly variable, increasing scoreline volatility.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dagenham & Redbridge 2–1 Chesham UnitedThe model projects a 2-1 win for Dagenham & Redbridge, anchored by their elite home defensive record—just 2 goals conceded in 6 home matches. The main risk is Chesham United's unpredictable attack, which has produced 11 away goals and could exploit any lapse, but their defensive vulnerabilities should prove decisive.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United: Common Questions
Who will win Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United?
Dagenham & Redbridge are modelled with a 53% chance of victory, compared to 18% for Chesham United and 29% for the draw. The home side's defensive record and Chesham's poor away form are key drivers.
Will both teams score in Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, with Chesham United scoring in 4 of 6 away games and Dagenham & Redbridge conceding just 2 at home. The clash of Chesham's attack and Dagenham's defence makes BTTS a marginally favoured outcome.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 58% probability by the model, reflecting Chesham United's high-scoring, open games (82% over 2.5 this season) against Dagenham's more controlled, low-scoring matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dagenham & Redbridge vs Chesham United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results