Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Predictions
FA Cup · England
Chippenham Town
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Yate Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7/10Chippenham Town Edge Yate Town in Extra-Time FA Cup Thriller
Chippenham Town booked their place in the next round of the FA Cup after a dramatic 2-1 victory over Yate Town in extra time. With the match locked at 1-1 after 90 minutes, Chippenham found a crucial breakthrough in the additional period, sending their supporters into celebration at the final whistle. Both sides battled hard in a closely contested affair, with neither able to seize full control during regular time. While the details of goalscorers and minute-by-minute action remain undisclosed, the narrative was one of resilience and determination, as Chippenham ultimately showed greater composure when it mattered most.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
90'' — End of regular time
The match finished 1-1 after 90 minutes, forcing extra time.
Extra Time' — Chippenham Town goal
Chippenham scored the decisive goal in extra time to take a 2-1 lead.
120'' — Full-time whistle
Chippenham Town confirmed their victory after a hard-fought 120 minutes.
Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town demonstrated grit and patience throughout the match, staying organized defensively and capitalizing on their opportunities when they arose. Despite being unable to pull away during regular time, they maintained their intensity into extra time and were rewarded with the decisive goal. The hosts managed to keep their discipline, avoiding any bookings, and showed strong mental resolve to outlast Yate Town in a tense cup tie.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Yate Town
Yate Town matched their hosts for much of the contest, showing determination and tactical awareness to keep the scores level after 90 minutes. Their efforts were undone in extra time, as they conceded the decisive goal and were unable to mount a comeback. Despite the defeat, Yate Town can take pride in their battling display, having kept Chippenham at bay for long stretches and maintaining discipline with no cards shown.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams keeping a clean disciplinary record and the match requiring extra time to separate them, it is evident that defensive organization and patience were central to both managers' approaches. Chippenham Town likely set up to control key spaces and limit Yate Town's attacking options, while Yate Town mirrored that discipline, making for a tight and tense cup tie. Neither side was able to dominate, and the lack of detailed statistics suggests a game of fine margins, where tactical caution outweighed attacking risk. Ultimately, Chippenham's ability to find an extra gear in extra time proved decisive.
Turning Point
The extra-time goal by Chippenham Town, which broke the deadlock and shifted the momentum irreversibly in their favor.
Man of the Match
Unknown
Scored the crucial extra-time winner and delivered when it mattered most for Chippenham Town.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town: Match Preview
Chippenham Town host Yate Town in an FA Cup replay after the sides played out a 0-0 draw just four days ago. Chippenham arrive having lost only once in their last five across all competitions (form: DLWDW), but have struggled for attacking consistency, failing to score in two of those games. Yate Town, meanwhile, are unbeaten in the cup this season and have shown some attacking spark with a 3-0 win over Devizes Town, but have also been held scoreless twice in their last five.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by low concession rates and a lack of clear attacking superiority on either side. Chippenham average just 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game in the cup, while Yate Town have yet to concede in their two cup fixtures, though their league form is more volatile (1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded over the last five). The H2H history reinforces the pattern: three draws in four meetings, with only one match seeing more than two goals. Neither side has a notable set-piece or disciplinary trend due to limited data, but both have kept clean sheets in at least one of their last five.
Given the statistical deadlock and lack of attacking edge, the model projects another low-scoring contest, with a 1-1 draw the most probable outcome. The under 2.5 goals market is supported by both teams’ season rates and the recent H2H trend, while the draw stands out due to the frequency of stalemates between these sides. Unless one side finds an early breakthrough, expect a cautious tactical battle decided by fine margins.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chippenham Town vs Yate Town that most previews miss.
- 1All four competitive H2H meetings since 2013 have finished with under 2.5 goals.
- 2Chippenham Town’s last five have averaged just 2.2 total goals per game.
- 3Yate Town have yet to concede a goal in this season’s FA Cup matches (two games, 180 minutes).
Who do you think wins: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model gives the draw a 39% probability, the highest of the three outcomes, supported by three draws in the last four head-to-heads and both teams’ recent low-scoring, closely-matched results.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Only one of the last four H2H meetings has gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams’ season over 2.5 rates are below 50% (Chippenham 33%, Yate 50%), with both averaging under 1.5 goals conceded per game.
Read more ↓
More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Prediction
All the statistical signals point to a tightly-contested replay with little to separate Chippenham Town and Yate Town. Both sides have shown defensive solidity in the cup, and their recent meeting produced a goalless stalemate. The underlying rates suggest a low-scoring, evenly-matched affair, with the draw and under 2.5 goals both standing out as the most probable outcomes.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chippenham Town have failed to score in two of their last five, while Yate Town have kept two clean sheets in their last five.
Match Context
- →Three of the last four head-to-heads have ended level, including a 0-0 just days ago.
- →Both teams’ season over 2.5 goal rates are below 50%.
How Chippenham Town and Yate Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chippenham Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Yate Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chippenham Town have posted a mixed run (DLWDW), with just one defeat in their last five but two games without a goal. Yate Town’s recent form (DWWLL) is similarly patchy, alternating between strong attacking displays and matches where they’ve failed to score. Both teams are coming off a goalless draw, underlining the fine margins between them.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town
The head-to-head series has been dominated by draws, with three of the last four meetings ending level, including a 0-0 just days ago. No fixture in this run has produced more than two goals, and neither side has managed back-to-back wins. The data suggests a persistent deadlock when these teams meet.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Chippenham Town wins
2
Draws
1
Yate Town wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is constrained. However, the model’s highest probabilities are on the draw and under 2.5 goals, both of which are supported by historical and current rates. If market odds for these outcomes drift above 2.6 for the draw or 1.65 for under 2.5, they would represent value based on the model’s estimates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Limited sample size for both teams’ season records and no home/away split for Yate Town.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data to refine attack/defence matchup.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chippenham Town 1–1 Yate TownThe model’s call is a 1-1 draw, anchored by the consistent pattern of stalemates and low-scoring affairs in recent head-to-heads. The strongest data point is the three draws in the last four meetings, all with two or fewer goals. The biggest risk is that one side capitalises on a defensive lapse or set piece, breaking the deadlock early and opening the game up.
Chippenham Town vs Yate Town: Common Questions
Who will win Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
The model gives Chippenham Town a 33% chance to win, Yate Town a 28% chance, and the draw a 39% probability. Recent H2H meetings and both teams’ current form suggest a closely-fought contest most likely to end level.
Will both teams score in Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' at 52%. Three of the last five for each side have seen both teams score, but the most recent H2H was a 0-0, so the market is finely balanced.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Under 2.5 goals is given a 64% probability by the model, supported by both teams’ season rates (Chippenham 33%, Yate 50%) and a run of low-scoring head-to-heads. The most recent meeting ended 0-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chippenham Town vs Yate Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.