Comoros vs Senegal Prediction
Senegal's Firepower Favoured Against Comoros in Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Comoros
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Senegal
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 2.15
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 0-1 · 0-3
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Comoros vs Senegal Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Comoros vs Senegal?
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The Case For This Comoros vs Senegal Prediction
Senegal travel to face Comoros in an international friendly, and the model sees a stark gulf between the sides. Senegal enter with an Elo rating of 1878, a full 516 points higher than Comoros’ 1362, reflecting their status as a top-20 side against a team ranked outside the top 100. This baseline advantage is only reinforced by Senegal’s potent attack, which boasts a finishing factor of 1.2 and a chance quality of 1.14, compared to Comoros’ lack of attacking data and limited recent output. Momentum slightly narrows the gap, with Comoros’ recent defensive form (leak multiplier 0.85) helping suppress their expected goals against, while Senegal’s attack is running hot (momentum multiplier 1.18). The final model output gives Senegal a commanding 71% win probability, projecting a 2-0 away victory as the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Senegal’s attack factor 1.449 vs Comoros’ baseline 1.0
Defence
- →Momentum: Senegal attack multiplier 1.18, Comoros defence 0.85
Match Context
- →Elo gap of 516 points: Senegal (1878) vs Comoros (1362)
- →Senegal’s final expected goals: 2.16; Comoros: 0.70
- →Top correct score: 0-2 (13.4% probability)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.27 · 2.33
From xG
1.41 · 1.88
Blended
0.70 · 2.16
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Comoros's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Senegal attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Senegal's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.14.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Comoros goals, columns = Senegal goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.4%
0-1
12.4%
0-3
9.6%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Comoros vs Senegal that most previews miss.
- 1Senegal’s top five forwards have combined for 133.2 xG and 121 goals, while Comoros’ attacking data is not available.
- 2Comoros have failed to score in three of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in that span.
- 3The model rates the probability of both teams scoring at only 44.5%, favouring a clean sheet for Senegal.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a substantial Elo baseline, giving Senegal a 0.951 expected Elo score to Comoros’ 0.049, based on their respective ratings and global ranks. This initial edge is then adjusted for attacking and defensive factors: Senegal’s attack is rated at 1.449, with strong finishing (1.2) and high chance quality (1.14), while Comoros lack sufficient attacking data and are rated at a neutral baseline. Recent momentum is factored in, with Senegal’s attack multiplier of 1.18 reflecting a strong run of form, while Comoros’ defensive leak factor of 0.85 suggests they have recently been harder to break down. These adjustments yield final expected goals (λ) of 2.16 for Senegal and just 0.70 for Comoros. The model then applies a Poisson distribution to these scoring rates, producing a 71% win probability for Senegal and a 13% chance of a 2-0 away win.
More Friendlies Predictions
Comoros vs Senegal Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Comoroslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Senegallast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Comoros have struggled for attacking output, scoring just twice in their last five matches and failing to score in three of those. Their defensive record is more respectable, conceding only 0.6 goals per game over that span. Senegal, meanwhile, have averaged two goals per game in their last five, though they have also conceded 1.8 per match, indicating some defensive vulnerability.
Comoros vs Senegal — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
🚩 Comoros vs Senegal Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Comoros and 5.5 for Senegal, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
Things to Watch: Comoros vs Senegal
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Comoros’ recent defensive form could make them tougher to break down than the model projects.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Comoros 0–2 SenegalThe model’s strongest signal is Senegal’s overwhelming Elo and attacking superiority, leading to a predicted 2-0 win. The 71% away win probability is the single most decisive figure in the analytics. The main risk to this verdict is Comoros’ recent defensive resilience (leak factor 0.85), which could frustrate Senegal’s attack and keep the scoreline closer than expected.
Comoros vs Senegal: Common Questions
Who will win Comoros vs Senegal?
The model gives Senegal a 71% probability of winning, compared to just 10.7% for Comoros and 18.3% for a draw.
What are the expected goals for Comoros vs Senegal?
Senegal are projected to score 2.16 goals, while Comoros are expected to score just 0.70 based on the model’s final expected goals output.
How likely is both teams to score in Comoros vs Senegal?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44.5%, with the model favouring a clean sheet for Senegal.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Comoros vs Senegal: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 21 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.