Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Corinthians
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Corinthians Win
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc: Match Preview
Corinthians arrive in mid-table, sitting 10th with 32 points from 24 matches, but their recent league form is patchy: two defeats in their last three, though they did keep a clean sheet in a Libertadores win. Chapecoense, rock bottom and eight points adrift of safety, have just two wins all season and look especially vulnerable away, with eight defeats in eleven on the road and a -12 away goal difference.
Statistically, this is a clash of a competent home defence against one of the league's weakest travelling attacks. Corinthians average just 1.08 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, but at home they've conceded only 10 in 12. Chapecoense's away attack is blunt—only 7 goals in 11 away games—while their defence ships 1.73 per away match. The goal environment projects as low: Corinthians' matches are under 2.5 goals 62.5% of the time, and Chapecoense have failed to score in five of eleven away games. Corners should be above average (home last five: 4.4, away: 4.8), while cards are likely, with both sides averaging over two yellows per game.
The model expects Corinthians' defensive structure and Chapecoense's lack of away threat to dictate proceedings. A first half deadlock is likely, but Corinthians' superior shot volume and set-piece threat (4.4 corners per game) should eventually break through. With Chapecoense's low scoring rate and Corinthians' high clean sheet percentage, a 2-0 home win is the likeliest outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc that most previews miss.
- 1Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in three of their last five matches across all competitions.
- 2Chapecoense have failed to win any of their 11 away league games, scoring just seven times.
- 3Only 37.5% of Corinthians' league matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season.
Who do you think wins: Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Corinthians Win
Corinthians have a 60% win probability at home, underpinned by Chapecoense's 0-3-8 away record and 1.73 goals conceded per away match.
BTTS: No
BTTS 'No' is supported by Corinthians' 41.7% clean sheet rate and Chapecoense's 0.64 goals scored per away game.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Corinthians matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 62.5% of games this season, and their last five average just 1.8 total goals.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
This fixture pits a mid-table Corinthians side with a solid defensive record against a Chapecoense team struggling badly on their travels, with the underlying rates pointing to a low-scoring home win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Chapecoense's away attack averages just 0.64 goals per game.
Defence
- →Chapecoense have failed to win any of their 11 away league games, conceding 19 goals.
- →Corinthians keep clean sheets in 41.7% of matches, and have three in their last five.
🚩 Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Corinthians and 4.6 for Chapecoense-sc, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Corinthianslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Corinthians' recent form is mixed, with a 'LWLDW' run in their last five and just one win in their last three league outings, but they've kept three clean sheets in that span. Chapecoense, bottom of the table, have only one win in their last ten and remain winless away from home, with a 'WDLLD' string and a solitary goal in their last two away fixtures.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc
Corinthians have dominated this matchup historically, winning six of the last ten meetings and keeping clean sheets in four of their last five home games against Chapecoense. The last encounter ended 0-0, but low-scoring games and home clean sheets are a recurring theme.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Corinthians wins
2
Draws
2
Chapecoense-sc wins
Things to Watch: Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value calculation or EV.
- ⚠️Corinthians' recent form is mixed, with two losses in the last three league games.
- ⚠️Chapecoense's last away match saw them score late; a defensive lapse could open the door.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Corinthians 2–0 Chapecoense-scCorinthians are projected to win 2-0, with Chapecoense's 0-3-8 away record and 0.64 away goals per game the clearest signal. The main risk is Corinthians' recent inconsistency in attack, which could see them struggle to break down a deep block if they don't score early.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc: Common Questions
Who will win Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Corinthians are clear favourites with a 60% win probability, driven by Chapecoense's winless away record and defensive frailty (19 away goals conceded). The draw is rated at 28%, and a Chapecoense upset at just 12%.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Both teams to score is rated just 32%, with 'No' at 68%. Corinthians have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and Chapecoense average only 0.64 away goals per game.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 56%, as Corinthians matches have gone under that line in 62.5% of league games, and Chapecoense's away attack is among the league's weakest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.