Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Mirassol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Mirassol Win
@ 2.2(+12% edge)
Recommended Bets: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol: Match Preview
Chapecoense-sc enter this fixture rooted to the bottom of Serie A, having collected just 21 points from 31 matches and losing three of their last five. Their only recent bright spot was a 2-1 win over Fluminense, but the broader trend is bleak: 18 defeats, a -31 goal difference, and the league's leakiest defence. Mirassol, in contrast, are 15th with 37 points, unbeaten in four of their last five, and have a 16-point cushion over the relegation zone.
The statistical matchup is stark. Chapecoense's home record is poor, with 21 scored but 34 conceded in 15 matches and a clean sheet rate of just 6.5%. Their last five have seen them allow 2.2 goals per game. Mirassol's away form is modest (2W 4D 9L), but their defensive numbers are less catastrophic (1.53 conceded per away game), and they've kept two clean sheets in their last five overall. Mirassol's attack has improved recently, averaging 1.6 goals per game in the last five, while Chapecoense have failed to score in two of their last five. Set-piece output is modest for both, with corners per game below league average.
Given these rates, the model expects Mirassol to capitalise on Chapecoense's defensive weaknesses. The goal environment projects as above average, with Chapecoense's matches hitting over 2.5 goals in 58% of cases. Mirassol's recent attacking uptick and dominant head-to-head record (four wins in five) suggest they are well placed to take three points, though Chapecoense's home scoring record means a goal for the hosts is likely.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have kept just one clean sheet in 31 league matches (3.2%).
- 2Mirassol have won both previous away games at Chapecoense by a 1-0 scoreline.
- 3Chapecoense's home matches average 3.67 total goals, highest in the league.
Who do you think wins: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Mirassol Win@ 2.19
Mirassol have won four of the last five head-to-heads and hold a 51% model win probability versus 45.5% implied by the odds. Chapecoense's home record is poor (3W 5D 7L, 34 conceded in 15), while Mirassol's away metrics (1.41 conceded per game, 9 losses in 15) are still superior to the hosts' defensive rates.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.8
Chapecoense matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 58% of league games, and their last 5 have averaged 3 goals per match. Mirassol's season over 2.5 rate is lower (47%) but the matchup with the league's worst defence (2.03 conceded per game) raises the goal expectation.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Prediction
Chapecoense-sc, bottom of the table with just 21 points from 31 matches, host Mirassol, who sit 15th but with a comfortable 16-point cushion above the drop zone. The hosts have managed only four wins all season and arrive off a rare victory, but have lost three of their last five and have the league's weakest defence. Mirassol, meanwhile, have taken eight points from their last five, including a 2-0 win over Internacional, and have lost just once in that stretch. Statistically, Chapecoense's home record is dire: 21 goals scored but 34 conceded in 15 matches, with a clean sheet rate of only 6.5%. Their last five have seen them concede 11 times. Mirassol's away form isn't strong (2W, 4D, 9L), but they concede at a much lower rate (1.53 per away game) and have posted two clean sheets in their last five overall. The head-to-head is lopsided, with Mirassol unbeaten in five meetings and winning four of them, including both previous visits to Chapecoense without conceding. The model expects Mirassol to control the match, exploiting Chapecoense's defensive frailties. The goal environment projects as above average (combined 1.03 vs 2.03 for Chapecoense, 1.16 vs 1.41 for Mirassol), and Mirassol's recent uptick in attacking output (1.6 goals/game last five) should be enough to edge a high-scoring contest. Chapecoense's ability to score at home (1.4 per game) keeps them in the match, but their defensive record makes it unlikely they hold out for long.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chapecoense have conceded 63 goals in 31 matches (2.03 per game), the worst in Serie A.
Match Context
- →Mirassol have won four of the last five head-to-heads, including both away games to nil.
- →Chapecoense's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 58% of cases, highest in the division.
🚩 Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Chapecoense-sc and 4 for Mirassol, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassollast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sc have lost three of their last five matches, conceding 11 goals in that stretch, but did manage a 2-1 home win over Fluminense last time out. Mirassol are in steadier form, unbeaten in four of their last five and holding opponents to just three goals across those games. The momentum is clearly with the visitors, who have tightened up defensively and improved their attack.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
Mirassol have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last five meetings and keeping clean sheets in both previous trips to Chapecoense. The only draw came earlier this season (1-1), but Chapecoense have yet to beat Mirassol in any competition. This trend strongly favours the away side.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
0
Chapecoense-sc wins
1
Draws
4
Mirassol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
The model sees the biggest value on Mirassol to win at 2.2, with a 12% edge over the market's implied probability. Over 2.5 goals also shows a small positive margin, reflecting Chapecoense's high-scoring matches. Both teams to score 'no' is slightly overpriced, but not enough to justify a recommendation.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
- ⚠️Mirassol's away win rate is low (2 in 15), so their edge relies on Chapecoense's defensive collapse continuing.
- ⚠️Chapecoense's recent win may signal a short-term improvement, but one result is a small sample.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but late lineup changes could impact defensive stability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chapecoense-sc 1–2 MirassolThe model calls this 2-1 to Mirassol, driven by Chapecoense's league-worst defensive rate (2.03 conceded per game) and Mirassol's dominance in the head-to-head. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Mirassol's poor away win rate (just 2 in 15) persists and Chapecoense build on their recent home win.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol: Common Questions
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
Mirassol are favoured with a 51% win probability, compared to just 20% for Chapecoense. This is supported by Mirassol's four wins in the last five head-to-heads and Chapecoense's poor defensive record.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Chapecoense's matches going over this line in 58% of league games and their home games averaging 3.67 total goals.
Is both teams to score likely in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, with Chapecoense scoring in three of their last five and Mirassol averaging 1.6 goals per game recently. However, Mirassol have kept two clean sheets in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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