Flamengo vs Gremio Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Flamengo
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Gremio
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.67(+27% edge)
Recommended Bets: Flamengo vs Gremio
Flamengo vs Gremio: Match Preview
Flamengo approach this fixture at the Maracanã with the momentum of league leaders: 21 wins from 32, three straight victories, and a formidable home record (12W, 3D, 1L). Their recent form string (WWDWD) is underpinned by a blend of attacking variety and defensive discipline. Gremio, by contrast, are mired in the relegation battle, sitting 17th and boasting just one away win all campaign. Their last five (WLDDD) include a narrow win at Coritiba but also a damaging home defeat to Cruzeiro, and their away record (1W, 5D, 10L) is among the worst in the league.
The tactical matchup is lopsided: Flamengo average 2 goals and 7.2 shots on target per home game, while Gremio's away attack musters just 0.63 goals per game and 4.8 shots on target. Flamengo's last five have seen them control possession (57.6%) and rack up corners (8.2 per match), while Gremio's defensive frailties are exposed by a mere 21.88% clean sheet rate on the road. Set-piece threat is firmly with the hosts, whose corner count dwarfs Gremio's, and the visitors' discipline (16 fouls, 2.6 yellows per last five) suggests they may struggle to contain Flamengo's creative midfield.
The model expects Flamengo to dominate territory and chances, with a 77% probability of victory and a 76% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Gremio's best hope is to frustrate and counter, but their away scoring record and recent head-to-heads offer little encouragement. The strongest value lies in opposing both teams to score, given Gremio's consistent struggles in front of goal away from home.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Flamengo vs Gremio
The strongest value edge is in the 'BTTS: No' market, where the model's 76% probability (odds equivalent 1.32) is well above the 1.67 offered by bookmakers. The home win is too short to offer value, with the market already pricing in Flamengo's dominance. The draw is priced fairly in line with the model, leaving 'BTTS: No' as the standout angle for positive expected value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Flamengo vs Gremio(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.72
Gremio have failed to score in 10 of 16 away matches this season, while Flamengo have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5. The model assigns a 76% probability to BTTS 'no', well above the 59.9% implied by the odds, creating a substantial value edge.
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Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Flamengo vs Gremio that most previews miss.
- 1Gremio have failed to score in 10 of 16 away matches this season, the worst mark among all Serie A sides.
- 2The last five Flamengo vs Gremio matches in Rio have averaged just 2.0 total goals, with Flamengo winning four and conceding three times.
- 3Flamengo's last five home games have seen an average of 8.2 corners, while Gremio's last five away average just 6.0—suggesting set-piece volume will favour the hosts.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.45
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 3-0 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction
Bookmakers rate Flamengo as overwhelming favourites, but the model's probability—while strong—suggests the market is slightly overconfident on the home win and is underestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring, one-sided affair. Flamengo's home record (12W, 3D, 1L) and defensive numbers (0.75 goals conceded per home game) dwarf Gremio's meagre away output (10 goals in 16 away matches, 1W, 5D, 10L). Gremio's attack has struggled away from Porto Alegre, and the data points to a repeat of recent head-to-heads in Rio where Flamengo have dominated both the scoreline and the shot count. The real value, however, is in the goal markets, where the model sees a much stronger case for 'BTTS: No' than the market does. Tactically, Flamengo's attacking metrics at the Maracanã—averaging 2 goals, 7.2 shots on target, and 8.2 corners per match in their last five—should stretch a Gremio defence that concedes 1.44 goals per away game and has kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 on the road. Gremio's own attacking output (1.0 goals, 4.8 shots on target per last five) is unlikely to trouble a Flamengo back line that has allowed just 12 home goals all season. The hosts' ability to control possession (57.6% average in last five) and generate set-piece pressure further tilts the balance. Expect Flamengo to assert themselves early, with a 62% model probability of scoring before the half-hour and a 78% chance of opening the scoring. Gremio's only plausible route to a result is through defensive resilience and set-pieces, but their away record offers little encouragement. The most plausible scenario is a controlled Flamengo win, most likely to nil, with the model's strongest value found in opposing both teams to score.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Flamengo have won 12 of 16 at home, conceding just 0.75 goals per game at the Maracanã.
Match Context
- →Gremio have scored only 10 goals in 16 away matches and failed to score in 10 of those.
- →BTTS has landed in just 2 of Flamengo's last 5 and 3 of Gremio's last 5, but Gremio's away BTTS rate is just 31%.
🚩 Flamengo vs Gremio Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Flamengo and 5.8 for Gremio, for an expected total of 12.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (79%). Over 8.5: 87% · Over 10.5: 69%.
How Flamengo and Gremio Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Flamengo vs Gremio Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Flamengolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gremiolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengo arrive on a run of three wins in five (WWDWD), including a recent 3-2 home win over Atletico-MG and a 3-0 away victory at Bahia. Their momentum is matched by a consistent defensive record, with three clean sheets in that span. Gremio, meanwhile, have just one win in their last five (WLDDD) and have struggled to find the net, particularly away from home, where they've scored only once in their last three.
Flamengo vs Gremio — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Flamengo vs Gremio
Flamengo have dominated the recent head-to-heads, especially at home, winning four of the last five meetings at the Maracanã and conceding just three goals in those games. The last encounter ended 1-0 to Flamengo away, and Gremio have failed to score in three of the last five overall. The pattern points strongly towards another low-scoring Flamengo win.
Flamengo vs Gremio Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Flamengo wins
2
Draws
2
Gremio wins
Things to Watch: Flamengo vs Gremio
- ⚠️Gremio's last away match was a 1-0 win, but it came against a bottom-half side (Coritiba) with far weaker defensive numbers than Flamengo.
- ⚠️Flamengo's attack can occasionally misfire against deep blocks, as seen in their 0-0 draw at Estudiantes, though that was in continental competition.
- ⚠️No notable injuries are reported, but late lineup changes could affect the defensive solidity or attacking output for either side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Flamengo 2–0 GremioFlamengo are rightly strong favourites, but the model's 76% probability for 'BTTS: No'—driven by Gremio's anaemic away attack—offers the clearest value in a market where the home win is already priced near its true probability. The likeliest outcome is a controlled 2-0 Flamengo win, but the main risk is an early Flamengo goal opening the game and allowing Gremio to snatch a consolation, or a rare lapse in the hosts' defensive focus.
Flamengo vs Gremio: Common Questions
Who will win Flamengo vs Gremio?
The model gives Flamengo a 77% probability of victory, reflecting their dominant home record and Gremio's struggles away from home. Gremio are given just a 6% chance of an upset.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
The model sees a 76% probability that at least one side fails to score, with Gremio blanking in 10 of 16 away matches and Flamengo keeping 3 clean sheets in their last 5.
Is there value in backing Flamengo at these odds?
With the home win priced at 1.18 (implied 84.7%) and the model at 77%, there's little value in backing Flamengo outright. The best value is in 'BTTS: No', where the model's 76% probability far exceeds the 59.9% implied by the 1.67 odds.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Flamengo vs Gremio: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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