Criciuma vs Cuiaba Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Criciuma
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Cuiaba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Under 2.5
Criciuma vs Cuiaba: Match Preview
Criciuma approach this match in second place, but their recent form has cooled with just one win in five (LDWLD) and a solitary goal scored across their last three. Cuiaba, 12th but only five points off the top six, are the division’s draw specialists, unbeaten in five (DWWDD) and with a knack for frustrating higher-ranked opponents. Both sides have built their campaigns on defensive consistency, with Criciuma conceding just 0.71 goals per game and Cuiaba 0.75, while neither attack ranks among the league’s most potent.
Statistically, this is a fixture defined by low margins. Criciuma’s home matches average just 1.58 goals (13 for, 6 against in 12), while Cuiaba’s away games are similarly tight at 1.73 goals per match (10 for, 9 against in 11). Both teams see under 2.5 goals in 83% of league games, and their shot volumes—Criciuma 15.4, Cuiaba 14.4 per game in the last five—translate to few clear chances. Notably, both sides generate high corner counts (Criciuma 8, Cuiaba 6.4 per game recently), indicating a set-piece-heavy contest, while discipline remains controlled with cards averaging under 2.5 per side.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects a low-scoring draw as the modal outcome. Both sides’ defensive structure and conservative risk profiles make an early goal unlikely, with most scoring activity skewed to the second half. The likeliest deviation would come from set pieces, but the distribution of results points to a 1-1 or 1-0 either way, with under 2.5 goals a strong statistical anchor.
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Criciuma vs Cuiaba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Criciuma vs Cuiaba that most previews miss.
- 1Cuiaba have drawn 50% of their away matches (5 of 11), the highest rate among the top 15 teams.
- 2Criciuma and Cuiaba have each seen under 2.5 goals in 20 of their 24 league games (83.3%).
- 3Combined, these two sides average 14.4 corners per match over their last five fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Criciuma vs Cuiaba(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average under a goal conceded per match (Criciuma 0.71, Cuiaba 0.75), and neither attack is prolific, but draw rates are high (Cuiaba 12/24, Criciuma 8/24). A 1-1 fits both teams' season scoring/conceding rates and the low over 2.5% (both 16.67%).
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Over/Under: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 20 of their 24 matches (83.3%), and their last five games average a combined 1.2 goals per team. Defensive solidity and low attacking output point strongly to a low-scoring contest.
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Corners: Over 10.5
Criciuma and Cuiaba average a combined 14.4 corners per match over their last five (Criciuma 8, Cuiaba 6.4), well above the typical line. Both sides generate high set-piece volume despite modest goal returns.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Criciuma vs Cuiaba Prediction
This fixture brings together two of Serie B's most defensively disciplined sides, with Criciuma sitting second and Cuiaba mid-table but hard to beat. Both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates point to a low-event contest, with draw probability heightened by Cuiaba's league-high 12 stalemates and Criciuma's eight. Set-piece frequency stands out, as both sides rack up corners at a rate that belies their conservative approaches in open play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Criciuma's home record: 7W, 4D, 1L, conceding just 6 in 12.
- →Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game and under 1.1 scored.
Match Context
- →Cuiaba have drawn 12 of 24 league matches, including 5 of 11 away.
🚩 Criciuma vs Cuiaba Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Criciuma and 6.2 for Cuiaba, for an expected total of 13. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (84%). Over 8.5: 90% · Over 10.5: 75%.
How Criciuma and Cuiaba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Criciuma vs Cuiaba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Criciumalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Cuiabalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciuma’s recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five and only two goals scored in that stretch, reflecting a dip in attacking output. Cuiaba, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five (DWWDD) and have found the net in every recent match, but their propensity for draws continues to limit upward movement. Both sides remain defensively sound, rarely conceding more than once per game.
Criciuma vs Cuiaba — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +45.83% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Criciuma vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba have the historical edge, winning four of the last seven meetings, but the last two have been notably tighter, ending 1-1 and 1-0. High-scoring games have given way to more conservative, low-margin contests as both teams have tightened defensively.
Criciuma vs Cuiaba Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
Criciuma wins
2
Draws
4
Cuiaba wins
Things to Watch: Criciuma vs Cuiaba
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both sides' recent form is steady but not spectacular; small-sample volatility possible.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension news reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Criciuma 1–1 CuiabaThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, anchored by the fact that both teams average under a goal conceded per match and have seen under 2.5 goals in over 80% of their games. The single strongest data point is Cuiaba’s draw rate—12 in 24, with five away—reflecting their ability to keep games tight on the road. The main risk is that a set-piece goal or defensive lapse early on could force one side to open up, pushing the match above the expected goal threshold.
Criciuma vs Cuiaba: Common Questions
Who will win Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
The model gives Criciuma a 34% chance to win, Cuiaba a 28% chance, and a draw is the most likely outcome at 38%. Both sides’ defensive records and high draw rates make a stalemate the statistical favourite.
Will Criciuma vs Cuiaba be under or over 2.5 goals?
There is an 81% probability of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams seeing 20 of 24 league matches finish below that threshold. Defensive discipline and low attacking output drive this expectation.
How likely is both teams to score in Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Both teams to score is rated at 43%, with 'No' the more probable outcome (57%). Both sides have failed to score in a combined 11 of their last 10 matches, but recent BTTS rates are slightly higher for Cuiaba (4 of last 5).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Criciuma vs Cuiaba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.