CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
CS Sfaxien
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
ES Zarzis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Late Zarzis Rally Falls Short as Sfaxien Secure 2-1 Home Win
CS Sfaxien began their Ligue 1 campaign with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over ES Zarzis in Sfax. The hosts established control early, opening the scoring in the 23rd minute and doubling their lead shortly after the break. ES Zarzis, despite a spirited late push and a consolation goal in the 90th minute, could not overturn the deficit. Both sides lined up in matching 4-2-1-3 formations, but it was Sfaxien who looked more cohesive in the opening hour, translating their structure into attacking opportunities. Zarzis struggled to break down the home defense until the dying moments, with their frustrations compounded by two yellow cards. Ultimately, Sfaxien's early efficiency proved decisive, as they held on despite Zarzis' late surge.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Goal
CS Sfaxien open the scoring, setting the tone for the first half.
56' — Goal
Sfaxien double their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure after the break.
90' — Goal
H. Labidi pulls one back for Zarzis, but it's too late to change the outcome.
unknown' — Yellow Card
Two Zarzis players booked as frustrations boil over.
CS Sfaxien
CS Sfaxien delivered a disciplined performance, capitalizing on their chances and maintaining defensive solidity for most of the match. Their control in midfield and ability to strike early set the tone, while the back line remained organized until a late lapse allowed Zarzis a consolation. The lack of disciplinary issues reflected their composure under pressure. The hosts' attacking trio, supported by a strong midfield, created enough danger to keep Zarzis on the back foot. While they eased off in the closing stages, their two-goal cushion was enough to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis struggled to impose themselves for much of the contest, finding it difficult to penetrate Sfaxien's disciplined setup. Their attacks lacked cohesion until the final stages, by which time they were chasing the game. Two yellow cards highlighted their frustration as they tried to disrupt Sfaxien's rhythm. Despite a late goal in the 90th minute, Zarzis left it too late to mount a full comeback. Their inability to threaten consistently in open play ultimately cost them, though their late push showed character.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams opted for a 4-2-1-3 formation, but Sfaxien's execution was superior, especially in midfield transitions and pressing. Their double pivot shielded the defense effectively, allowing the attacking trio to press high and disrupt Zarzis' buildup. Sfaxien's fullbacks provided width without compromising defensive solidity. Zarzis, meanwhile, struggled to break lines and often resorted to direct balls, which were largely dealt with by the Sfaxien backline. Their tactical adjustments came too late, with attacking substitutions and a more aggressive stance only materializing after they trailed by two goals.
Turning Point
Sfaxien's second goal in the 56th minute, which gave them a commanding lead and forced Zarzis to chase the game.
Man of the Match
T. Mutyaba
Controlled the midfield, broke up Zarzis attacks, and contributed to Sfaxien's attacking build-up.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis: Match Preview
CS Sfaxien approach this Ligue 1 opener off the back of a strong finish to last season, winning four of their last five in all competitions and conceding only twice in that span. ES Zarzis, meanwhile, also closed their campaign with four wins in five, including a notable 1-0 away victory at Sfaxien in the cup, but suffered a narrow defeat to ES Tunis in their most recent outing. Both sides begin the new season in mid-table positions, with no points on the board and no immediate pressure from the standings.
The statistical matchup is defined by defensive solidity and a lack of high-scoring games. Sfaxien have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Zarzis have been even tighter at the back, allowing just 0.2 per match and keeping four clean sheets. Both teams have failed to score in one of their last five, and only one of their last five combined matches saw both teams score. H2H history echoes this, with seven of the last ten meetings finishing under 2.5 goals and only one of the last five producing more than two goals.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a low-scoring, cautious contest, with neither side likely to take early risks. The most probable scenario is a draw, with a single goal each reflecting both teams' recent averages and the historical pattern of tight encounters. A 1-1 scoreline is the statistical favourite, but a 1-0 result either way is also plausible given both sides' defensive discipline.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
18%
BTTS: Yes
27%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis that most previews miss.
- 1ES Zarzis have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding only once in that period.
- 2Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, with five ending 1-0 or 1-1.
- 3CS Sfaxien have scored six of their last nine goals in the first half across their last five matches.
Who do you think wins: CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline fits both sides’ recent scoring and defensive rates, with CS Sfaxien averaging 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game in their last five, and ES Zarzis at 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded, but both with a pattern of low-scoring, tight matches in H2H.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recent form shows 4/5 clean sheets for ES Zarzis and 3/5 for CS Sfaxien, with only one of the last five H2H exceeding two goals, supporting an 81% model probability for under 2.5.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction
All statistical signals point to a low-scoring, closely contested fixture. Both CS Sfaxien and ES Zarzis enter with strong recent defensive records, but neither has shown a high goal output trend. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a single goal for each side reflecting their recent averages and the historical H2H pattern.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →CS Sfaxien have averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per match over their last five.
- →ES Zarzis have kept four clean sheets in their last five and conceded only 0.2 goals per game in that span.
How CS Sfaxien and ES Zarzis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CS Sfaxienlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CS Sfaxien have won four of their last five matches, conceding just two goals in that stretch and keeping three clean sheets. ES Zarzis matched that defensive output with four clean sheets in their last five, including a 1-0 away win at Sfaxien. Both sides have demonstrated strong defensive discipline and low-scoring tendencies heading into this fixture.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis
The last ten meetings between these sides have been closely contested, with ES Zarzis edging the record with four wins to Sfaxien's three and three draws. Tight margins are the norm: seven of those ten games finished under 2.5 goals, and only one of the last five produced more than two goals. The most recent clash saw Zarzis win 1-0 away in the cup.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
CS Sfaxien wins
3
Draws
4
ES Zarzis wins
Things to Watch: CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis
- ⚠️No current season data for home/away splits or full league context; all rates are based on last five matches and H2H.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds prevents value quantification for recommended bets.
- ⚠️No injury or lineup information available for this fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CS Sfaxien 1–1 ES ZarzisThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' recent defensive records—Sfaxien conceding 0.4 and Zarzis 0.2 per game over their last five. The single strongest data point is the combined seven of ten H2H meetings finishing under 2.5 goals. The main risk is an early goal forcing one side to open up, but the underlying rates point firmly to a low-scoring stalemate.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis: Common Questions
Who will win CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis?
The model gives CS Sfaxien a 33% chance to win, ES Zarzis a 29% chance, and a draw the highest probability at 38%. Recent form and head-to-head history both point towards a tightly contested match with no clear favourite.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis?
There is an 81% probability for under 2.5 goals according to the model, with both teams showing strong defensive form and seven of the last ten H2H meetings finishing below this line.
Will both teams score in CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis?
The model estimates a 36% chance of both teams scoring, with 64% for at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Only one of the last five H2H meetings saw both teams score.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.