Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Predictions
National League - South · England
Dorking Wanderers
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Weston-super-Mare
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare: Match Preview
Dorking Wanderers and Weston-super-Mare are separated by a single point in the National League South table, both sitting just outside the playoff spots. Dorking's recent form is mixed (LDWWD), but they have lost only twice in eleven league matches. Weston-super-Mare arrive off a heavy 1-6 defeat at Ebbsfleet and have just one away win in five, though their overall record is similar to Dorking's.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by high goal involvement at both ends. Dorking's home games average 4.0 goals, with 10 scored and 10 conceded in five matches. Weston-super-Mare's away defence is leaky (2.2 conceded per game), and both teams have seen BTTS in four of their last five. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63.6% of Dorking's league matches and 58.3% of Weston's, while neither side keeps clean sheets reliably (Dorking 27%, Weston 33%).
The model expects a match with multiple goals and both sides on the scoresheet. Dorking's superior home scoring rate and Weston's away defensive frailty tip the balance slightly in favour of the hosts. However, the prevalence of draws in both teams' records and in recent head-to-heads means a close contest is likely, with 2-1 or 2-2 plausible outcomes.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare that most previews miss.
- 1Dorking's home matches have produced 20 goals in 5 games (4.0 per match), the highest among mid-table sides.
- 2Weston-super-Mare have conceded 11 goals in 5 away games, with just one clean sheet on the road.
- 3Four of the last five H2H meetings have seen both teams score, with three draws in that span.
Who do you think wins: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have over 2.5 goals in more than half their league matches (Dorking 63.6%, Weston 58.3%), and their combined season scoring/conceding rates point to a goal-rich environment.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 4 of the last 5 for both sides, and neither defence has a clean sheet rate above 33% this season.
Match Result: Dorking Wanderers Win
Dorking's home attack (2.0 goals/game) faces a Weston side conceding 2.2 per away match, giving the hosts a statistical edge despite both teams' mid-table status.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction
Mid-table rivals Dorking Wanderers and Weston-super-Mare meet with nearly identical points tallies, but the underlying numbers point to a match with attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Dorking's home fixtures average 4.0 goals per game, while Weston have shipped 11 in five away trips. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring, BTTS-heavy contests recently, and the statistical distribution favours goals again here.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dorking's home matches average 4.0 total goals (10 scored, 10 conceded in 5 games).
- →Weston-super-Mare concede 2.2 goals per away game and have just one away win.
- →BTTS has landed in 4 of the last 5 for both teams, and both have a clean sheet rate below 34%.
How Dorking Wanderers and Weston-super-Mare Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dorking Wandererslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Weston-super-Marelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dorking Wanderers have lost just once in their last five across all competitions, with a form string of LDWWD and no recent failures to score. Weston-super-Mare's form is more erratic, coming off a heavy 1-6 defeat but with only one win in their last five (LDLDW). Both sides are consistently finding the net but struggling for clean sheets.
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare
Dorking have had the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning two of the last five and drawing three. Both teams have scored in four of those meetings, with the last clash at Meadowbank ending 3-2 to Dorking. Draws are common in this fixture, suggesting a close contest.
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Dorking Wanderers wins
2
Draws
1
Weston-super-Mare wins
Things to Watch: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare
- ⚠️Limited recent shot and possession data for Weston-super-Mare restricts confidence in attack/defence calibration.
- ⚠️Neither side has a strong home or away win rate, so draw probability may be slightly underestimated.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value bets cannot be confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dorking Wanderers 2–1 Weston-super-MareThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Dorking Wanderers, driven by their 2.0 goals per home game against a Weston defence conceding 2.2 per away match. The greatest risk to this outcome is the frequency of draws in both teams' records and the possibility that Dorking's defensive lapses allow Weston to snatch a point.
Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare: Common Questions
Who will win Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare?
Dorking Wanderers are given a 44% chance of victory, with a 32% probability for a draw and 24% for a Weston-super-Mare win. The hosts' stronger home attack and Weston's away defensive record tilt the edge to Dorking.
Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, supported by the fact that BTTS has landed in four of the last five matches for each side and in four of the last five head-to-heads.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability of over 2.5 goals is 60%, as both teams' league matches have cleared that line in over half their games (Dorking 63.6%, Weston 58.3%), and their combined goals per match is above average.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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