Dundee vs Hibernian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Dundee
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Hibernian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+12% edge)
Match Result
6.9/10Hibernian Outclass Dundee in Dominant Dens Park Display
Hibernian claimed a deserved 2-1 victory over Dundee at Dens Park, controlling the match with authority and composure. The visitors struck first through Martin Boyle in the 25th minute, capitalizing on their early dominance. After the break, Hibernian doubled their lead in the 61st minute, putting the game seemingly out of reach for the hosts. Dundee rallied late and pulled one back in the 83rd minute, but their efforts proved too little, too late. The statistics told the story: Hibernian enjoyed 61% possession and peppered the Dundee goal with 24 shots, 7 of which were on target. Dundee, meanwhile, managed just 3 shots on target from 10 attempts, struggling to break down Hibs' disciplined back three. Despite a late surge and a consolation goal, the home side couldn't overcome Hibernian's superior control and attacking threat.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
Martin Boyle puts Hibernian ahead after sustained pressure.
61' — Goal
Hibernian double their lead, capitalizing on Dundee's defensive frailties.
83' — Goal
Joe Westley scores for Dundee, giving the home side a late lifeline.
45' — Yellow Card
Dundee pick up a yellow card as frustrations grow before half-time.
70' — Yellow Card
Hibernian receive a yellow card while managing their lead.
Dundee
Dundee found themselves on the back foot for much of the afternoon, chasing the game as Hibernian dictated the tempo. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1, they struggled to gain a foothold in midfield and were limited to just 39% possession. Their attacking play lacked penetration, and they managed only 3 shots on target. A late goal in the 83rd minute gave the home fans hope, but it was not enough to alter the outcome.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hibernian
Hibernian delivered a commanding away performance, controlling possession and creating the majority of chances. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed them to overload the midfield and stretch Dundee's defensive line. Martin Boyle's opener set the tone, and a second goal after the break cemented their superiority. Although they conceded late, Hibs rarely looked threatened and managed the closing stages with composure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Dundee's 4-2-3-1 struggled to match Hibernian's midfield numbers, with the visitors' 3-4-3 formation allowing them to dominate central areas and control the tempo. Hibernian's wing-backs provided width, stretching Dundee's back four and creating overloads in wide areas. The away side pressed effectively, forcing turnovers and launching quick transitions that led to their two goals. Dundee's late attacking substitutions brought more urgency, but their lack of possession and inability to break Hibs' press limited their effectiveness. Set pieces offered little joy for either side, with Hibernian's five corners well defended by Dundee. Ultimately, Hibs' tactical discipline and superior ball retention proved decisive.
Turning Point
Hibernian's second goal in the 61st minute, which gave them a commanding lead and forced Dundee to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Martin Boyle
Scored the crucial opener and consistently threatened Dundee's defence with his pace and movement.
Dundee vs Hibernian: Match Preview
Dundee come into this fixture with momentum, sitting second in the table after two wins from three and boasting the league's joint-best defensive record (just one goal conceded). Hibernian, seventh with three points from two, have shown resilience in Europe with back-to-back clean sheets but have struggled to generate sustained attacking threat, averaging only 3.4 shots and 1 goal per game over their last five in all competitions. Both sides have been effective at limiting chances, with Dundee keeping three clean sheets in their last five and Hibernian matching that mark, though the visitors' attack has been notably blunt in recent outings.
Statistically, this matchup leans towards a low-scoring contest. Dundee's home record is perfect so far (2-0 vs Aberdeen), and their last five matches average just 2.4 total goals. Hibernian's away league form is a single 2-1 win at Rangers, but their overall shot volume is low and their Europa Conference League matches have finished 0-0 and 0-0 away from home. Both teams have more goals in the second half (Dundee: 6 of last 8 goals after the break; Hibernian: 3 of last 5), suggesting a cagey opening period. Set-piece numbers are modest, with Dundee averaging 4.2 corners and Hibernian just 2.4, so a game dominated by open play rather than dead balls is likely.
Given the underlying rates, the model projects a tight contest with limited clear chances. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with both sides' defensive solidity outweighing their attacking output. The draw offers value at current odds, and the under 2.5 goals market is also supported by the data, though the head-to-head record does caution against ruling out a goal outlier entirely.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dundee vs Hibernian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dundee vs Hibernian that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have not had both teams score in any of their last five matches (0/5 BTTS).
- 2Hibernian's last three away matches in all competitions have averaged just 1.0 total goal per game.
- 3Across the last ten head-to-heads, the away side has won 50% of the time (5/10), an unusually high rate.
Who do you think wins: Dundee vs Hibernian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dundee vs Hibernian(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.45
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, above the bookmaker's implied 29.4%, in a fixture where both sides average under 1.5 goals scored and have strong recent defensive records (Dundee 0.33 conceded per game, Hibernian 0.4 over last 5).
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BTTS: No@ 2.08
Neither team has seen BTTS in more than 2 of their last 5 matches, and Dundee have kept 3 clean sheets in that stretch, supporting a slightly higher than market probability for 'no'.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Dundee vs Hibernian Prediction
This is a meeting of two sides with compact defensive profiles and modest attacking output, both trending towards low-scoring, close contests. Dundee's clean sheet rate (66.7%) and Hibernian's recent run of three clean sheets in five suggest a match likely to be decided by fine margins, with neither attack consistently imposing itself. The statistical shape is that of a low-event game, with a high probability of a draw and under 2.5 goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head shows five away wins for Hibernian in the last ten, but also three draws including a 3-3 at Dens Park last season.
Defence
- →Dundee average just 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per league game this season.
- →Hibernian's away output is limited: 2 goals scored, 1 conceded in their only league away match.
🚩 Dundee vs Hibernian Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Dundee and 3.8 for Hibernian, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Dundee and Hibernian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dundee vs Hibernian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernianlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee have started the season strongly, winning two of their first three league matches and conceding just once, including a 2-0 home win over Aberdeen. Hibernian's recent form is mixed, with a notable away victory at Rangers but also a home defeat and two 0-0 draws in Europe, highlighting their defensive solidity but also attacking inconsistency. Both sides have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but neither has consistently imposed themselves in attack.
Dundee vs Hibernian — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Dundee vs Hibernian
Hibernian have had the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten meetings and three of the last four at Dens Park. However, draws have also been common, with three in that span, including a 3-3 thriller last season. The fixture has produced goals in the past, but the current defensive form on both sides suggests a lower-scoring encounter this time.
Dundee vs Hibernian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Dundee wins
3
Draws
5
Hibernian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dundee vs Hibernian
The strongest value edge is on the draw at 3.40, with the model's 33% probability outpacing the market's 29%. There is also a small edge on 'BTTS: No' at 2.03, given both teams' recent clean sheet rates and low BTTS frequency. Other markets, such as under 2.5 goals, are priced close to model probability and offer little value.
Odds from 1xBet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dundee vs Hibernian
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes are small, increasing variance in attack/defence rates.
- ⚠️Hibernian's European schedule may affect rotation or fatigue, but no injury data is available.
- ⚠️Recent H2H includes some high-scoring outliers (3-3, 4-1), though current team stats point to a lower goal environment.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dundee 1–1 HibernianA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by both teams' strong recent defensive records and low attacking shot volumes. The single strongest data point is Dundee's 66.7% clean sheet rate in league play, which, combined with Hibernian's conservative approach away, points to a low-event match. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Hibernian rediscover attacking fluency or Dundee's defensive numbers regress to the mean, opening up the contest beyond the expected margins.
Dundee vs Hibernian: Common Questions
Who will win Dundee vs Hibernian?
The model assigns a 32% probability to a Dundee win, 33% to a draw, and 35% to a Hibernian win. With both sides averaging under 1.5 goals scored per league game, the draw is the most likely single outcome.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs Hibernian?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 52%. Dundee have not seen BTTS in any of their last five matches, and Hibernian have failed to score in two of their last five.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Dundee vs Hibernian?
The model gives a 56% probability to under 2.5 goals, with both teams' recent matches trending low-scoring (Dundee: 0% over 2.5 in league, Hibernian: 100% but with low shot volume). The market odds are close to fair value, so the edge is marginal.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dundee vs Hibernian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.