Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Dunfermline
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Aberdeen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen: Match Preview
Dunfermline approach this friendly off the back of two straight wins and three clean sheets in their last five, conceding only once in their last three outings. Aberdeen have been less consistent, alternating between a 4-0 win at Motherwell and a 0-3 defeat at Celtic, with their last five yielding just one win and three matches without scoring. With both sides coming from different divisions and no league table context, the primary focus is on their recent defensive solidity and moderate attacking returns.
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a low-scoring contest. Dunfermline's last five matches average just 1.6 total goals, with only one BTTS result and a tendency for goals to arrive after half-time (three second-half goals, two in the first half). Aberdeen have averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded per match in their last five, but their over 2.5 rate for the season is only 25%. Both teams' shot volumes are modest, and neither has shown a strong set-piece trend, with corners and fouls data limited.
The model expects a cautious first half, with little to separate the sides. The most likely scenario is a 1-1 draw, reflecting each team's recent scoring and conceding rates. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, given the combined lack of attacking output and the defensive records on show.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dunfermline vs Aberdeen that most previews miss.
- 1Dunfermline have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding only three goals in that span.
- 2Aberdeen have failed to score in three of their last five, despite averaging 9.8 shots per game.
- 3Just one of the last five matches for each team has seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Dunfermline vs Aberdeen?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Dunfermline vs Aberdeen(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have averaged under 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches (Dunfermline 1.0, Aberdeen 1.0), and Aberdeen's season over 2.5 rate is just 25%. The model gives under 2.5 at 59%.
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The Case For This Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Prediction
The statistical profile points to a low-scoring, closely contested friendly. Dunfermline arrive with a solid defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per game in the last 5) and a current streak of two wins, while Aberdeen's recent away form is mixed but includes a 4-0 win at Motherwell. Neither side is prolific: both average just 1 goal per game over their last five, with clean sheets more common than multi-goal outings. Tactically, Dunfermline's recent matches have been tight, with only one BTTS result in their last five and three clean sheets. Aberdeen's last five include two clean sheets and three matches where they failed to score, despite averaging nearly 10 shots per game. Both sides have shown a tendency to keep things cautious early, with just two first-half goals each in their last five. Given these rates, the model expects a match that may take time to open up, with a draw the likeliest outcome. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, reflecting both teams' moderate attacking output and relatively strong defensive numbers. The under 2.5 goals market stands out given the combined recent and season-long underperformance in attack.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have managed only one BTTS result in their last five matches.
Defence
- →Dunfermline have conceded just 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Aberdeen's season over 2.5 goal percentage is only 25%.
🚩 Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Dunfermline and 5.2 for Aberdeen, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Dunfermline and Aberdeen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dunfermlinelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dunfermline are on a two-match winning streak, having conceded just once in their last three games and keeping three clean sheets in their last five. Aberdeen's form is patchier, with a 4-0 away win at Motherwell offset by three matches without a goal in their last five. Both sides have shown more defensive resilience than attacking threat in recent weeks.
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
The head-to-head record is split, with three recent meetings ending 3-0 to the home side, but these results are spread over several years and competitions. The last meeting saw Dunfermline win 3-0 at home in the FA Cup. However, the historical data is too sparse and dated to draw strong conclusions for this friendly.
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Dunfermline wins
1
Draws
3
Aberdeen wins
Things to Watch: Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing; league motivation is unclear in a friendly context.
- ⚠️Lineup and injury news is incomplete for a future fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dunfermline 1–1 AberdeenThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals the standout statistical angle. Dunfermline's defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per game in the last five) is the single strongest data point. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Aberdeen rediscover attacking form seen in their 4-0 win at Motherwell, but their broader scoring rates suggest caution.
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen: Common Questions
Who will win Dunfermline vs Aberdeen?
The model gives Dunfermline a 36% chance, Aberdeen 26%, and the draw 38%. Both teams have struggled for goals recently, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline vs Aberdeen?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with just one BTTS result in each team's last five matches. Defensive solidity on both sides points to BTTS 'no' as more likely.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Dunfermline vs Aberdeen?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 59% probability by the model, with both teams averaging just 1.0 goal scored per game over their last five. Aberdeen's over 2.5 rate for the season is only 25%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dunfermline vs Aberdeen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.