Eibar vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Eibar
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Eibar Edge Valladolid in Tight Affair at Ipurua
Eibar began their Segunda División campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Valladolid at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua. In a match where Valladolid controlled much of the possession (58%) and registered more shots on target (4 to Eibar's 3), it was the Basque side who found the crucial breakthrough in the 64th minute. The game was marked by intense midfield battles, frequent fouls, and a flurry of yellow cards, with both teams showing early-season rust in attack but plenty of defensive discipline. Despite Valladolid's territorial dominance and ability to dictate the tempo, Eibar's compact 4-2-3-1 shape frustrated the visitors and limited their clear-cut chances. The hosts made the most of their opportunities, capitalizing on a rare lapse in the Valladolid defense to snatch all three points. The match's lone goal proved decisive, as Eibar held firm under late pressure to secure a valuable opening-day win.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
64' — Goal
Jon Bautista scores for Eibar, finishing off a rare attacking move to give the hosts the lead.
73' — Yellow Card
Valladolid pick up their fourth yellow card as frustration mounts.
80' — Save
Jon Mikel Magunagoitia makes a crucial stop to deny Valladolid an equalizer.
Eibar
Eibar showed resilience and tactical discipline, soaking up pressure for long spells and striking decisively when it mattered. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided defensive solidity, with the midfield duo of Aleix Garrido and Sergio Álvarez shielding the back four effectively. Though they saw less of the ball (42% possession), Eibar made their moments count, notching 12 shots and converting one of their three efforts on target. The hosts also managed to keep their composure amid a physical contest, conceding just eight fouls and picking up three yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid dominated the ball and looked the more enterprising side for much of the contest, but ultimately lacked the cutting edge to break down Eibar's disciplined defense. Their 4-2-3-1 system allowed them to control the midfield and generate 11 shots (4 on target), yet they struggled to convert possession into high-quality chances. Frustration crept in as the match wore on, evidenced by 13 fouls and four yellow cards, and their inability to respond after conceding proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a congested midfield and few open spaces. Eibar prioritized compactness and defensive shape, often sitting deep and looking to spring forward through the flanks and the creative trio behind Jon Bautista. Valladolid, meanwhile, sought to control proceedings with patient buildup and overlapping fullbacks, but struggled to break down Eibar's two banks of four. The match featured frequent transitions, with Eibar's ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter proving decisive. Set pieces were evenly matched, with both sides earning five corners but failing to capitalize. As the game wore on, tactical fouling and timely substitutions helped Eibar preserve their narrow lead, while Valladolid's attempts to inject fresh legs in attack could not alter the outcome. The hosts' disciplined structure ultimately stifled Valladolid's more expansive approach.
Turning Point
Jon Bautista's 64th-minute goal, which shifted momentum and forced Valladolid to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Jon Bautista
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with tireless effort, making the difference in a tight contest.
Eibar vs Valladolid: Match Preview
Eibar open their Segunda División campaign at home after a pre-season marked by solid, if unspectacular, results: two wins and three draws, including a 1-1 away to Real Unión and a 5-0 home rout of Arenas Getxo. Valladolid arrive under early pressure after a 0-2 defeat at Mallorca to start their league season, though their pre-season included a 4-2 win at Sporting Gijon and a 3-0 at Gimnástica Segoviana. Both sides are looking to establish early rhythm, but neither has shown a clear attacking or defensive superiority in competitive action yet.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by moderate attacking output and a tendency for games to tighten in competitive settings. Eibar’s last five matches show an average of 2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, with two clean sheets, while Valladolid’s recent average sits at 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded but includes two games without scoring. The head-to-head is perfectly balanced, but Eibar have won their last two at home against Valladolid by 3-0 and 5-1 margins, though the most recent meeting was a goalless draw. First-half goals have been more common for Eibar in pre-season (9 of their last 10 goals before the break), but league openers tend to be more cautious.
The model projects a low-to-moderate goal environment, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 58% probability and a 1-1 draw the single most likely outcome. Both teams’ recent scoring rates in friendlies are tempered by the step up in competition and the historic H2H trend towards tight contests. Unless one side capitalises on an early set piece or defensive error, this fixture is likely to be decided by fine margins and could easily end level.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Eibar vs Valladolid that most previews miss.
- 1Eibar have scored 9 of their last 10 goals in the first half, suggesting a front-loaded attacking profile in recent matches.
- 2Valladolid have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, including their only competitive fixture this season (0-2 at Mallorca).
- 3The last 10 H2H meetings are split 4-4-2 (Eibar wins, Valladolid wins, draws), with Eibar winning their last two home H2Hs by 3+ goals.
Who do you think wins: Eibar vs Valladolid?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Eibar vs Valladolid(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
A 1-1 draw is the single most likely outcome by the model (22%), reflecting both teams’ moderate attacking output in recent friendlies and a history of competitive, balanced head-to-heads.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Model probability for under 2.5 goals is 58%, supported by both sides’ tendency for lower-scoring games in the last five and a recent 0-0 in their most recent league meeting.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction
Statistical rates point to a tightly contested match at Ipurua, with neither side showing a clear edge in attack or defence based on recent data. The goal environment projects as moderate-to-low, with both teams averaging around 2 goals scored per game in pre-season but facing a step up in competitive intensity. The most likely scenario is a draw, with a slight lean towards under 2.5 goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 2+ goals scored per game in their last five, but competitive fixtures tend to be tighter.
Defence
- →Eibar have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, while Valladolid failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head is perfectly balanced over the last 10 meetings (4 wins each, 2 draws), with recent games including a 0-0 and a 3-0 Eibar home win.
How Eibar and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Eibar vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Eibarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Valladolidlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibar come into this fixture unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws, including a convincing 5-0 home win in pre-season. Valladolid’s form is more mixed: three wins and two losses in their last five, but crucially they failed to score in both defeats, including a 0-2 loss at Mallorca to start their league campaign. Eibar’s momentum is steadier, but neither side has established a clear competitive rhythm yet.
Eibar vs Valladolid — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Eibar vs Valladolid
The last 10 meetings between Eibar and Valladolid are perfectly balanced, with each team winning four and two draws. Eibar have dominated the most recent home fixtures, winning 3-0 and 5-1, but the latest encounter finished 0-0. Scorelines have fluctuated, but the overall trend is towards competitive, often low-scoring matches.
Eibar vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Eibar wins
2
Draws
4
Valladolid wins
Things to Watch: Eibar vs Valladolid
- ⚠️No competitive league data for Eibar this season; all recent form is from friendlies.
- ⚠️Valladolid’s only league match ended in a 0-2 defeat, limiting sample size for their defensive and attacking rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value calculation; all value and edge commentary is withheld.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Eibar 1–1 ValladolidA 1-1 draw is the model’s baseline, underpinned by both teams’ moderate attacking rates and a perfectly balanced head-to-head record. The strongest data point is the frequency of low-scoring, competitive games between these sides, especially in recent league meetings. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Eibar’s early-season home advantage translates into a sharper attacking display, or if Valladolid’s attack clicks after a poor opening round.
Eibar vs Valladolid: Common Questions
Who will win Eibar vs Valladolid?
The model gives Eibar a 38% chance of victory, Valladolid a 26% chance, and a draw at 36%. The most likely result is a draw, reflecting balanced recent form and a level head-to-head record.
Will both teams score in Eibar vs Valladolid?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47%, with the model slightly favouring 'no' (53%). Both sides have shown some attacking threat in recent friendlies, but Valladolid failed to score in their only league match so far.
How many goals will there be in Eibar vs Valladolid?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 58% probability, with the model projecting a low-to-moderate goal environment. Recent head-to-heads and opening league matches point towards a cautious contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Eibar vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.