ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Hammam-Sousse
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
US Monastirienne
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
5/10Stalemate in Hammam-Sousse: Defenses Hold Firm in Goalless Ligue 1 Opener
ES Hammam-Sousse and US Monastirienne played out a cagey 0-0 draw in their Ligue 1 opener, with both sides struggling to create clear-cut chances in a match dominated by defensive discipline rather than attacking flair. Despite some feisty moments and three yellow cards shown, neither team could find the breakthrough, leaving both managers with positives to take from their defensive organization but questions to answer in attack. The match was characterized by a lack of attacking impetus, as neither side managed to register a goal or a significant attacking threat. The midfield battle was intense, with both teams showing commitment in the tackle and tactical caution. As the final whistle blew, it was clear that both ES Hammam-Sousse and US Monastirienne will need to sharpen their cutting edge in the coming weeks if they are to climb the Ligue 1 table.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
28' — Yellow Card
First yellow card of the match issued to an ES Hammam-Sousse player for a tactical foul.
54' — Yellow Card
US Monastirienne midfielder booked after a late challenge in midfield.
77' — Yellow Card
Second yellow card for US Monastirienne as tempers flared late on.
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse delivered a solid defensive display, keeping US Monastirienne at bay throughout the 90 minutes. While their backline was rarely breached, the lack of attacking threat was evident, as they failed to register on the scoresheet and struggled to carve out meaningful opportunities. The midfield worked hard to disrupt the visitors' rhythm, but creativity in the final third was lacking. A single yellow card highlighted their combative approach, but the team will need to find more fluency going forward if they are to convert draws into victories.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne matched their hosts stride for stride, demonstrating resilience and tactical discipline. They too struggled to unlock the opposition defense, with their attacking efforts blunted by ES Hammam-Sousse's organization. Two yellow cards reflected their aggressive approach in midfield, but ultimately, their inability to fashion clear openings proved costly. The team will be encouraged by their defensive solidity but will need to find more attacking cohesion to turn such stalemates into wins.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams lacking attacking thrust, the match was largely played in the middle third, with each side prioritizing defensive shape over offensive risk. The absence of clear formation data suggests both opted for conservative setups, possibly with a compact midfield to stifle creativity. The three yellow cards—one for the hosts, two for the visitors—reflected the physical nature of the contest and the emphasis on disrupting opposition build-up play. Set pieces and wide play failed to provide a breakthrough, and neither side was able to force the issue with substitutions or tactical shifts, resulting in a stalemate that underscored the need for greater attacking ambition.
Turning Point
There was no single turning point, as both defenses remained resolute and neither side was able to capitalize on the few openings that did arise.
Man of the Match
Unnamed Defender (ES Hammam-Sousse)
Led the defense with composure and ensured a clean sheet in a tightly contested affair.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne: Match Preview
ES Hammam-Sousse enter their Ligue 1 return on the back of a patchy Ligue 2 run, collecting just three points from their final five matches (LDDLD) and conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. US Monastirienne arrive from the top tier with mixed recent form (WLLWL), but their two clean sheets and a commanding 3-0 win in their last outing indicate a defensive baseline that could prove valuable away from home. Both sides start the campaign in mid-table positions, with little separating them on paper.
The statistical matchup is defined by modest attacking output and a pronounced lean towards low-scoring games. ES Hammam-Sousse have scored in four of their last five but kept only one clean sheet, while US Monastirienne’s last five have averaged just 1.8 total goals, with three matches featuring a clean sheet (either for or against). Both teams have struggled to generate sustained attacking pressure, and the lack of shot or set-piece data further underlines the expectation of a cautious, risk-averse contest. First-half goals have been rare, with only five scored between the two sides in their last ten combined matches.
Given these rates, the model projects a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline leading the probability distribution. The under 2.5 goals market is strongly supported by both teams’ recent averages and the historical H2H trend towards tight, low-output matches. The main risk lies in the unknowns of an opening day fixture, where off-season changes or early momentum can skew established patterns.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne that most previews miss.
- 1US Monastirienne have not seen both teams score in any of their last five matches (0/5 BTTS).
- 2ES Hammam-Sousse have conceded first in three of their last five games, but have also scored three second-half goals in that span.
- 3The last three competitive H2H meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with two ending in draws (1-1, 0-0).
Who do you think wins: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 draw is the single most likely scoreline by model estimates (26%), supported by the combination of both teams’ moderate attacking output in their last five (1.2 for home, 1.0 for away) and a high draw probability (41%) in a low-scoring environment.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Model probability for under 2.5 goals is 77%, reflecting both teams’ recent low scoring rates and the away side’s three clean sheets or failed-to-score results in their last five.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested opener. ES Hammam-Sousse’s recent Ligue 2 form (LDDLD) shows a side that finds the net but struggles to keep opponents out, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game in their last five. US Monastirienne, coming off a Ligue 1 campaign, have alternated between defensive solidity (two clean sheets) and attacking inconsistency (three failed to score in five), with just 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in the same period. The draw emerges as the most probable outcome, with neither side displaying a decisive edge in the underlying numbers.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Four of ES Hammam-Sousse’s last five matches saw both teams score, but their matches still averaged only 2.8 total goals.
Attack
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game in their last five matches (home 1.2, away 1.0).
Defence
- →US Monastirienne have kept two clean sheets and failed to score in three of their last five, highlighting volatility in both attack and defence.
How ES Hammam-Sousse and US Monastirienne Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ES Hammam-Sousselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
US Monastiriennelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Hammam-Sousse closed out their Ligue 2 campaign with a single loss but three draws in their last five, averaging 1.2 goals scored but conceding 1.6. US Monastirienne’s Ligue 1 finish was uneven, alternating wins and losses, but their defensive record (0.8 conceded per game, two clean sheets) points to a more robust baseline. Momentum is neutral, with neither side showing a clear upward or downward trend.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne
Across the last five meetings, US Monastirienne hold a slight edge with two wins to ES Hammam-Sousse’s one, but two draws suggest a history of closely matched contests. Recent encounters have been low-scoring, with the last two Ligue 1 clashes ending 1-1 and 0-0. No team has won consecutive H2H meetings in this period.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
1
ES Hammam-Sousse wins
2
Draws
2
US Monastirienne wins
Things to Watch: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne
- ⚠️No season-level home/away splits or current Ligue 1/Ligue 2 data available for either side; all rates are based on last five matches only.
- ⚠️Absence of odds and set-piece data limits the ability to identify value or edge in betting markets.
- ⚠️Opening day fixtures are inherently volatile due to squad changes and promotion/relegation effects.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US MonastirienneThe model calls a 1-1 draw, anchored by the high draw probability (41%) and both sides’ recent scoring rates hovering just above one per game. The strongest data point is the low expected goal environment, with under 2.5 goals hitting in 77% of the model’s simulations. The main way this forecast could miss is if either side’s attack finds early rhythm against a defence still adjusting to the new season’s demands.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne: Common Questions
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne?
The model gives ES Hammam-Sousse a 29% chance to win, US Monastirienne a 30% chance, and a draw is the most likely at 41%. Both teams have shown similar recent output, making a draw the statistical favourite.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 77% probability, based on both teams’ recent matches averaging below two goals per game and a history of low-scoring H2H encounters.
Will both teams score in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne?
Both teams to score is rated at 41%, with US Monastirienne not seeing BTTS in any of their last five, while ES Hammam-Sousse have seen it in four of five. Defensive stability from the away side tilts this slightly towards 'no'.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Resources
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US Monastirienne Predictions
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ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Monastirienne Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Ligue 1 Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results