ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Zarzis
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
US Monastirienne
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10US Monastirienne Edge 10-Man ES Zarzis in Spirited Away Win
US Monastirienne claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over ES Zarzis at the Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, capitalizing on both clinical finishing and a crucial numerical advantage. The visitors struck first in the 20th minute, but Zarzis responded just before halftime to level the score. However, Monastirienne regained the lead immediately after the break and managed to hold on, despite a late surge from the hosts. The match was marked by high intensity and discipline issues, with a total of six yellow cards and a pivotal red card to Zarzis that left them with ten men. Monastirienne’s ability to exploit their extra man proved decisive, as they navigated Zarzis’ spirited resistance to secure all three points on the road.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
US Monastirienne open the scoring to take an early lead.
45' — Goal
ES Zarzis equalize just before halftime, shifting the momentum.
47' — Goal
Monastirienne regain the lead immediately after the restart.
Second Half' — Red Card
ES Zarzis reduced to 10 men, putting them at a disadvantage for the remainder of the match.
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis showed resilience after conceding early, equalizing on the stroke of halftime to inject belief into the home crowd. However, their momentum was quickly undone by conceding just after the restart and suffering a red card that left them a man down for much of the second half. Despite their efforts, Zarzis struggled to create enough clear chances to draw level again, and their discipline issues ultimately undermined their challenge.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne started brightly, taking the lead in the 20th minute and showing composure to reclaim their advantage almost immediately after Zarzis equalized. Their four yellow cards reflected a combative approach, but they managed to avoid a sending off and made their extra man count in the second half. Monastirienne’s game management and ability to score at key moments were instrumental in securing the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams’ exact formations unavailable, the match’s tactical narrative was defined by momentum swings and discipline. Monastirienne’s approach was aggressive, as evidenced by their four yellow cards, but they balanced this with timely attacking moves. The visitors pressed high early, reaping rewards with the opening goal, and showed tactical maturity by quickly regaining the lead after Zarzis’ equalizer. Zarzis, meanwhile, demonstrated spirit and organization to claw back before halftime, but their tactical shape was compromised by the red card. Forced to play with ten men, they likely shifted to a more defensive posture, limiting their attacking options and allowing Monastirienne to control possession and tempo for much of the second half.
Turning Point
The red card to ES Zarzis early in the second half, which left them a man down and unable to mount a sustained comeback.
Man of the Match
Monastirienne Goalscorer (47')
Scored the decisive goal just after halftime and led the line effectively as Monastirienne managed the game with a numerical advantage.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne: Match Preview
ES Zarzis enter round two with three points and a clean sheet after edging Olympique Béja 1-0 at home, extending a run of four wins in their last five competitive matches. US Monastirienne, meanwhile, opened their campaign with a goalless draw away at ES Hammam-Sousse, continuing a pattern of low-scoring, defensively sound performances but with attacking inconsistency—three blanks in their last five outings. With both sides in the mid-table early, neither is under immediate pressure, but Zarzis will see this as an opportunity to consolidate a strong start on home soil.
Statistically, the fixture profiles as one of the lowest-scoring on the slate. Zarzis have averaged 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded per match over their last five, while Monastirienne have managed a single goal per game but failed to score in three of those, conceding only 0.4 per match. Both teams kept clean sheets in their opening league fixtures, and neither has seen both teams score in any of their last five. The head-to-head leans Monastirienne’s way, but most recent meetings have been tight, with four of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals.
The model expects another cagey contest, with both sides prioritising structure over risk. Zarzis’ home edge is marginal but meaningful given their defensive solidity and Monastirienne’s recent away struggles in front of goal. The most probable outcome is a narrow home win or a goalless draw, with a single goal likely to separate the teams if the deadlock is broken.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne that most previews miss.
- 1Neither side has seen both teams score in any of their last five matches (0/5 BTTS for both).
- 2Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals.
- 3ES Zarzis have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions.
Who do you think wins: ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in their opening league matches and neither side has averaged above 1.2 goals scored or 0.4 conceded per game over the last five. The model gives an 87% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting a low-scoring trend.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Across the last five matches, neither side has seen BTTS land (0/5 for both), and both have kept at least three clean sheets in that span. The model assigns an 85% probability to at least one side failing to score.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Prediction
A statistical deadlock is likely at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, with both ES Zarzis and US Monastirienne coming off clean sheets and showing a strong defensive profile in recent matches. Neither side has demonstrated consistent attacking output, and the underlying rates point to a contest decided by a single goal or less.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →No BTTS outcomes in the last five games for either side.
Defence
- →ES Zarzis have averaged just 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →US Monastirienne have failed to score in three of their last five, with a 0.4 goals conceded average.
How ES Zarzis and US Monastirienne Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
US Monastiriennelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Zarzis arrive in strong defensive form, winning four of their last five and conceding only once in that stretch. US Monastirienne have been more erratic, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, but have struggled for goals, failing to score in three of those outings.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne have historically had the upper hand in this fixture, winning six of the last ten meetings and conceding just three goals in that run. Recent encounters have been tight, with four of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and two ending goalless.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
ES Zarzis wins
3
Draws
6
US Monastirienne wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so explicit value cannot be calculated. However, the model's strong lean to under 2.5 goals and 'no' on BTTS suggests these would be the value angles if market prices align with typical league averages.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne
- ⚠️Only one league match played for each side this season, so season averages are not yet robust.
- ⚠️No shot or set piece data available for recent games, limiting attack/defence granularity.
- ⚠️Lack of bookmaker odds prevents explicit value identification.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Zarzis 1–0 US MonastirienneThe model projects a 1-0 win for ES Zarzis, underpinned by their defensive record—just one goal conceded in their last five matches. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Monastirienne rediscover their attacking touch, but recent data gives little evidence for a high-scoring encounter.
ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne: Common Questions
Who will win ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne?
The model gives ES Zarzis a 36% probability of winning, with a 39% chance of a draw and a 25% chance for US Monastirienne. The most likely result is a narrow home win or a low-scoring draw.
Will both teams score in ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne?
Both teams to score is rated at just 15% probability, as neither side has seen BTTS land in their last five matches and both have kept at least three clean sheets in that span.
Is under 2.5 goals a strong play for ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is favoured by the model at 87% probability, given both teams' low scoring and high clean sheet rates in recent matches, plus a history of low-scoring head-to-head encounters.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.