Estonia vs Bulgaria Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Estonia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Bulgaria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Estonia vs Bulgaria
Estonia vs Bulgaria: Match Preview
Estonia approach this fixture unbeaten in their Nations League group (WDWDD), sitting second with nine points from five matches and boasting the best defensive record in their section—just one goal conceded and four clean sheets. Bulgaria, by contrast, have struggled badly, losing three of five and conceding ten, including a bruising 0-5 defeat to Iceland last time out. Motivation is high for both: Estonia can consolidate a strong campaign, while Bulgaria need points to avoid finishing bottom.
The statistical matchup is defined by Estonia's disciplined, deep-lying defence against a Bulgaria attack that has failed to score in three of its last five. Estonia average 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game, with home matches particularly cagey (just one goal scored and none conceded in two). Bulgaria's away form is marginally better than their home record, but their overall output is weak: 0.6 goals for and 2.0 against per game, with only one clean sheet in their last four. Both teams' matches have been low on clear chances, with Estonia's last five averaging just 0.6 goals per game in total.
Given these rates, the model projects a low-scoring contest, with a high likelihood of a draw or narrow Estonia win. The most probable scorelines are 1-0 and 0-0, reflecting the hosts' defensive strength and Bulgaria's lack of attacking penetration. A single goal could decide it, most likely coming after half-time, as both sides have struggled to start matches quickly.
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.50
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Estonia vs Bulgaria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Estonia vs Bulgaria that most previews miss.
- 1Estonia's matches have averaged just 0.8 total goals per game this campaign (3 scored, 1 conceded in 5).
- 2Bulgaria have failed to score in three of their last five, with only one away clean sheet in their last four.
- 3The only previous meeting between these sides in this group finished 0-0, with just four shots on target combined.
Who do you think wins: Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Estonia vs Bulgaria(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Neither side has seen a match go over 2.5 goals in any of their combined last ten Nations League games, with Estonia's season over 2.5 rate at 0% and Bulgaria's at 60%—but Bulgaria's high rate is driven by heavy losses, not attacking output. Estonia's defence (0.2 conceded per game, 80% clean sheets) and low attacking output (0.6 scored per game) point strongly to a low total.
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BTTS: No
Estonia have kept four clean sheets in five, conceding just once, while Bulgaria have failed to score in three of their last five and average only 0.6 goals for per game. Only one of the last ten combined matches for these sides has seen both teams score.
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More UEFA Nations League Predictions
The Case For This Estonia vs Bulgaria Prediction
Statistical signals point to a low-scoring, attritional contest in Tallinn, where Estonia's defensive solidity faces a Bulgaria side struggling for attacking output and reeling from heavy defeats. The underlying rates—0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game for Estonia, 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded for Bulgaria—shape a match more likely to be decided by a single goal or less, with draw and 1-0 home win the modal outcomes.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bulgaria's attack has failed to score in 3 of their last 5, averaging just 0.6 goals per game.
- →Estonia's home matches average just 0.5 total goals per game (1 for, 0 against in 2 games).
Defence
- →Estonia's defensive record: 4 clean sheets in 5, conceding just once in the Nations League group.
🚩 Estonia vs Bulgaria Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Estonia and 4 for Bulgaria, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Estonia and Bulgaria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Estonia vs Bulgaria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Bulgarialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Estonia are unbeaten in five Nations League matches (WDWDD), conceding just once and keeping four clean sheets, including a recent 1-0 away win over Luxembourg. Bulgaria, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five and were thrashed 5-0 by Iceland in their most recent outing, underlining their defensive frailty and lack of attacking punch.
Estonia vs Bulgaria — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +80% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Estonia vs Bulgaria
The only head-to-head meeting in this group ended 0-0 in Bulgaria, with both sides producing just two shots on target each. That match typified the low-event nature of Estonia's campaign and Bulgaria's attacking struggles.
Estonia vs Bulgaria Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Estonia wins
1
Draws
0
Bulgaria wins
Things to Watch: Estonia vs Bulgaria
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so value and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes (5 matches per team) increase variance in goal and outcome probabilities.
- ⚠️Bulgaria's defensive collapses (10 conceded in 5) could mask a higher variance than the model assumes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Estonia 1–0 BulgariaThe model predicts a 1-0 win for Estonia, driven by the hosts' exceptional defensive record (0.2 goals conceded per game, 80% clean sheet rate) and Bulgaria's ongoing attacking struggles. The likeliest way this prediction goes wrong is if Bulgaria's defensive volatility—ten goals conceded in five—leads to a more open game than the underlying rates suggest.
Estonia vs Bulgaria: Common Questions
Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Estonia are slight favourites with a 39% win probability, but the draw is almost as likely at 41%. Bulgaria's win chance is just 20%, reflecting their poor form and defensive record.
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Both teams to score is unlikely, with only an 18% probability according to the model. Estonia have kept four clean sheets in five, and Bulgaria have failed to score in three of their last five matches.
How many goals are expected in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Under 2.5 goals is highly probable (85%), with the model projecting a low-scoring contest shaped by Estonia's defensive solidity and Bulgaria's lack of attacking threat. The most likely outcomes are 1-0 or 0-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estonia vs Bulgaria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.